Monday, March 19, 2018

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Mueller Investigation Worries, Trade War Fears, Less Economic Optimism, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Falling
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.47 +35.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.34 -.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.92 +.76%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.89 +4.37%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 57.0 -28.75%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +8.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.51 +100.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.17 +2.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 407.0 +1.84%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.53 +3.60%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.5 -1.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.97 +5.46%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 124.14 +4.72%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.51 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 30.25 -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 41.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 -2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.91 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.76% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 54.75 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.38%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.1 -3.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.80 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.90 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -106 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -37 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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