Monday, March 26, 2018

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Less US High-Yield/European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.62 -13.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.51 +1.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.92 +1.28%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.83 -5.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +29.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.23 -20.1%
  • NYSE Arms .70 -44.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.59 -1.27%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 445.0 +1.46%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.75 +1.18%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.30 -1.66%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 143.75 -3.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.58 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 55.75 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 +2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.43 +.49%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.74% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 56.75 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.97%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.8 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.20 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.60 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 unch.
  • 80.9% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 82.1% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -156 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +87 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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