Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +37.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 79.5% of Issues Advancing, 18.8% Declining
• 104 New 52-Week Highs, 0 New Lows
• 83.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,853.0 +436.0 points
• Vix 26.3 -13.1%
• Total Put/Call .75 -2.6%
• TRIN/Arms 2.60 +220.9%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Myanmar’s Army Chief Challenges Biden, Bets Big on China.  
• Diverging Inflation Paths Shape Asian Central Banks’ Room to Act.
• WHO in Wuhan; Japan to Extend State of Emergency: Virus Update.  
• Asian Stocks Gain After U.S. Rally; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Biggest Advance in Three Weeks on Demand Optimism.  
• Inflation Pockets of Asia, Climate Fail, U.S. Recovery: Eco Day.
• Covid Deaths Are Starting to Drop in Every Part of the U.S.
• Robinhood’s Forbidden-Stocks List Saw Price Swings Narrow Monday.  
• Carson Block Suspects Hedge Fund Coordination in Short Squeezes.  
• Apple Sells $14 Billion of Bonds as Share Buybacks Seen Rising.  
• Biden’s GOP Relief Talks Called ‘Productive,’ Will Continue.  
• J&J’s One-Dose Shot Gives U.S. a Chance to Plug Vaccination Gaps.  
• Silver Rally Runs Into Roadblock as Margins Rise, Warnings Mount.  
• Muni-Bond Downgrades Top Upgrades for First Time Since 2014.

Wall Street Journal:

• Catholic Schools Are Beating Covid.
• Officer Who Shot Capitol Rioter Shouldn’t Be Charged, Investigators Say.
• Covid-19’s Effects May Linger in Your Body, Even After Asymptomatic Cases.
• Covid Wears on, Essential Workers Carry on: ‘Everybody Forgets You’re Still on the Front Line’.
• Covid-19 Vaccines to Stress-Test Grocery Stores and Pharmacies.
• Exxon to Create ‘Low Carbon’ Business Unit as It Faces Activists.

Fox News:   

• Money talks as Biden pushes green industry's agenda.
  
• Deputy State Dept. spox called police 'largest threat' to national security.
  
• NEWT GINGRICH: Biden says 'unity' but really means 'conformity' – what the real deal would look like.
  

CNBC.com:

• GameStop’s slide continues, down 16% in after-hours trading.
• Amazon, Alphabet and Salesforce are all investing in a $28 billion company that crunches big data.
• Fed’s Bostic says economy could recover more quickly than expected.
• SpaceX to fly first civilian crew to space later this year, with public competitions for two seats.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Virgin Galactic, GameStop, Cirrus Logic and more.
• Why the GameStop frenzy may hurt retirees along with hedge funds.

MarketWatch.com:     

• AMC Entertainment stock now a ‘sell’ at MKM, as price target drops to $1.  
• Fed’s Kashkari not ‘fazed’ by rush of stock market speculation.  
• Tesla is in decline, SUVs are king, and more insights from the world’s largest electric-vehicle market.  
• GameStop stock tumbles 30% after more than half of short positions eliminated.

Zero Hedge:

• US COVID Vaccinations Top Cases For First Time... But A Majority Of Americans Still Remain Skeptical.
• How FinTech F**ked Financial Market Structure, Exposed The Social Contract, & What Comes Next.
• Financial Services Committee To Hold GameStop Hearing On Feb 18.
• Steve Cohen Opens Fund To New Investor Cash After Losses From Melvin Capital Bailout.
• Carson Block Defends Short Selling, Says He's "Not Part Of The Establishment".
• CME Hikes Silver Margins By 18%: Paper-Physical Disconnect Set To Explode.
• Treasury Now Projects Borrowing $900 Billion Less This Quarter: What That Means For Markets.
• Morgan Stanley: "This Correction Has Arrived And It's Likely To Get Worse And Feel Bad".
  
• Showdown In Chicago As Teachers Defy Mayor's Orders, Ignore Science; Strike Imminent.
• Short-Squeeze Stampede Sends Silver Soaring; Stocks Surge Off Overnight Slump.

Newsmax: 

• Dems Move to Pass $1.9 Trillion Bill Without GOP Support.
• Cotton: Biden's Immigration Orders Will Have 'Sweeping Effect'.
• Biden Asks Supreme Court to Cancel Asylum, Border Wall Arguments.
• US May Delay Afghanistan Withdrawal Amid Violence.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Democrat Pennsylvania Secretary of State at Center of Trump Election Concerns Resigns After Botching Requirement for Constitutional Amendment.
• As We Predicted: Non-Voters and Registered Democrats were Among Those Arrested at US Capitol Riots.
• Chris Salcedo Runs Montage of Democrats Threatening Violence Against Trump — But Trump Is Being “Impeached” for Calling for Peaceful Protest? (VIDEO).
• DC Public Schools Using Black Lives Matter Curriculum That Prioritizes ‘Disrupting the Nuclear Family’.
• Dr. Shiva, Jovan Pulitzer and Others Join World View Weekend and Discuss Steps Going Forward to Uncover the Accurate Results of the 2020 Election.
• Michigan’s Governor Aids CNN In Propaganda Campaign To Label Dissenters Of Democrat Party’s Radical Agenda, “Domestic Terrorists” [VIDEO].
• MEDIA BLACKOUT: Antifa Terrorists Armed with Hatchets Take Over Red Lion Hotel in Olympia, WA – Occupy 17 Rooms, Demand Shelter For Homeless (VIDEO).
• Biden White House OUTRAGED After Burmese Military Arrests Country’s Leaders over Alleged November Voter Fraud.
• Stacy Abrams Nominated for Nobel Peace Prize for Overwhelming Georgia Elections System with Questionable Ballots.

The Epoch Times: 

• Majority of Residents in Shanghai District Refuse to Take Chinese COVID-19 Vaccine: Govt Survey.
• Pentagon Commits $30 Million to Texas Rare Earth Plant, Aims to Reduce Reliance on China.
• Secretary of State Blinken Says US Should Allow in Hong Kong Refugees Fleeing Beijing’s Repression.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 31.0 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.23 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,476.0 +59.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.07 +.14%.
• FTSE 100 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AMG)/3.68
• (CNA)/1.00
• (ENR)/.89
• (GPN)/1.77
• (HAS)/1.14
  

After the Close:

• (CHGG)/.41
  
• (LEG)/.70
  
• (SPG)/2.24
  
• (TTWO)/.94
  

Economic Releases

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 16.15M versus 16.27M in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP report, China PMI report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.2 -11.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,518.0 +375.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.07 -.36%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.44 +.77%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.9 -4.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -19.4%

• NYSE Arms .75 -37.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.55 -2.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 519.31 -.52%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.23 -1.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 116.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.60 +.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.40 -1.08%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.51 -.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 15.5 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.75 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.22 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 96.25 +3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 149.75 USD/Metric Tonne 4.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.60 -4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 124.0 -4.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.80 -1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +164 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -4.9% 2) Pharma +.1% 3) Foods +.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GRTS, WSM, BDTX, MRTX, BPMP, CONN, ACAD, RXT, PVH, COLL, STIM, CHRS, WW, EVLO, SKT, SEET, SHLX, TR, GOGO, DD, CRTX, SPWR, MRNA, SFIX, PETS, FIZZ, GME and KOSS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DISCA 2) HOG 3) DD 4) SWKS 5) SLV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TRIT 2) SFIX 3) EXPR 4) BTBT 5) WSM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +5.0% 2) Video Gaming +3.4% 3) Networking +3.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• THCB, INO, BCRX, RVP, VXRT, STPK, FLGT, GATO, FUBO, UAVS, NVAX, CDE, GPRO, SRNE, SPCE, CDMO, INAQ, HIMS, XONE, IFF, CVLB, SUM, CREE, IRTC, CODX, CCIV, NKTR, FPI, SWKS, XRX, IPOE, NESR, AMC, PSAC, SPFR, IPOD, PSAC and IBKR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SUM 2) DVAX 3) TPX 4) RVP 5) BCRX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ARQT 2) FIS 3) CMG 4) TMO 5) EXPE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +33.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 59.7% of Issues Advancing, 38.0% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 81.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,299.0 +155.0 points
• Vix 31.9 -3.7%
• Total Put/Call .69 -25.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 -5.8%