Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,882.85 +4.64%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 31,144.19 +3.86%

• NASDAQ 13,844.0 +5.95%

• Russell 2000 2,227.83 +7.19%

• S&P 500 High Beta 61.22 +9.0%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 325.83 -2.33%

• Wilshire 5000 41,048.13 +5.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,527.78 +4.96%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,396.36 +4.76%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 676.37 +2.57%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,402.81 +3.81%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,051.62 +6.82%

• Transports 12,791.23 +5.88%

• Utilities 873.28 +2.09%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 62.29 +7.5%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 56.09 +5.11%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,340.12 +1.59%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 924.15 -.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 452,419 +1.11%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,016 +635

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -43.4 +2.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 504,612 -.78%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,316,660 +4.49%

• Total Put/Call .72 -27.96%

• OEX Put/Call 2.03 +21.4%

• ISE Sentiment 123.0 +13.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.07 -25.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,332.0 +1,227.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 21.22 -36.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.36 -2.71%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.41 -3.32%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.99 -3.57%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,159.14 -.76%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.313 Trillion -.31%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -5.477 Million

• AAII % Bulls 37.4 -.8%

• AAII % Bears 35.6 -7.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 181.39 +4.23%

• Crude Oil 56.95 +9.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 165.14 +6.76%

• Natural Gas 2.86 +15.7%

• Heating Oil 171.61 +7.4%

• Gold 1,811.60 -1.64%
• Silver 26.98 +.13%
  

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 216.17 +1.1% 

• Copper 362.80 +2.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 415.0 USD/Metric Tonne -8.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 151.45 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%

• Lumber 915.60 +3.2%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,100.1 +1.3%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.7% -.5 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +21.6% +2.6 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -2.27 -22.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 113.2 -13.5%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 174.57 +.95%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.2 +7.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 145.70 +17.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.40 unch.

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 3/17

• US Dollar Index 91.02 +.58%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,717.18 unch.
  

• Bitcoin/USD 37,588.51 +9.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.33 -.13%

• Yield Curve 105.0 +12.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.16% +8.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.371 Trillion +.09%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12.06 -.08%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 289.35 +.47%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.25 -17.25 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.59 -7.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 148.32 -14.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.36 -2.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.12 -9.5%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 82.17 -14.4%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.54 +.02%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19% +8.0 basis points

• TED Spread 16.75 +1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.02 -9.04%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 410.0 -4.91%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.74 -8.55%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 156.0 -10.09%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 65.25 -3.75 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.4 +2.28%

• M1 Money Supply $6.903 Trillion +2.27%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,056.90 -1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 848,250 -.15%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.2% -20.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.73% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 981,100 +8.1%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.6 -1.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.2% +50.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.46/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,327 -8.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,060.26 +.98%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 127.27 +20.2%

• Rail Freight Carloads 289,323 -2.9%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +8.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +4.8%
  

Leading Sectors

• Marijuana +24.2%

• Gaming +17.6%
  

• Oil Service +10.1%

• Airlines +10.5%

• Social Media +9.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Services +1.9%
  

• Gold & Silver +1.6%

• Healthcare Providers +.5%

• Pharma +.1%

• Retail -11.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (55)

• TDC, BILL, MGNI, ATOM, PLT, VREX, DCRB, CCS, CCIV, COLM, SYNA, VIVO, DNMR, APPS, APPH, VSAT, TBIO, PRCH, RVMD, CVLB, DMTK, MVIS, DM, SKLZ, XONE, ENVA, ATVI, BTAI, BERY, NOG, EL, GATO, VRM, NBLX, WYNN, SPRO, BNFT, NWSA, LPLA, LVS, CENX, ALRM, PSAC, SNAP, ZEN, DGII, CTT, REKR, AZPN, DBX, HOL, TW, LILAK, BCSF and SPB
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

• SDC, CLOV, IMVT, DGNR, LQDT, WWE and U
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Gaming/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.2 -2.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,339.0 +89.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.31 +.53%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.99 -.40%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.36 unch.

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -1.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 -20.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.87 -1.07%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 485.20 -1.47%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.70 +.01%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.25 -1.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.90 -1.38%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.02 -1.73%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.54 -.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 16.75 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.58 +.55%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 106.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 150.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.27%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.20 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 145.7 -1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.40 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +21 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 68.7% of Issues Advancing, 28.8% Declining
• 238 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Low
• 84.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,360.0 +110.0 points
• Vix 21.2 -2.6%
• Total Put/Call .67 -6.9%
• TRIN/Arms .77 -40.8%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• China’s Bond Traders Reprice a Future With Tighter Liquidity.  
• Japan Households Cut Spending in December Before Emergency.
  
• Asia Stocks Climb After U.S. Record; Bonds Steady: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Surges to One-Year High Fueled By OPEC+ Commitment on Supply.
• Unified Unilever Looks to Make Larger Deals in Break With Past.
• When Will Life Return to Normal? In 7 Years at Today's Vaccine Rates.
  
• Robinhood Traders Bash the App But Just Can’t Leave It.  
• Yellen Finds Market Infrastructure ‘Resilient’ Amid Frenzy.  
• A Battle for Control of WallStreetBets May Have Broken Out.  
• Brace Yourself: Long-Haul Travel May Not Get Going Until 2023.  
• Activision Soars on Upbeat Outlook for Video-Game Sales.  
• There Are Still 16 Meme Stocks With at Least 100% Gains in 2021.
• Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund Founder Admits to Massive Fraud.

Wall Street Journal:

• Toxic Metals Found in Some Baby Food, Congressional Report Says.
• The Biden Administration’s Elusive Stimulus Goal: Full Employment.

Fox News:   

• Psaki insists Biden wants schools open but dodges question on whether he'd stand up to unions.
• Indy journalists increasingly stifled under Big Tech restrictions.
• House votes to remove Taylor Greene from committees over past remarks.
  

CNBC.com:

• Johnson & Johnson requests emergency authorization from FDA for Covid vaccine.
• Ford boosts investment in electric and autonomous vehicles to $29 billion through 2025.
• Big Tech’s road to underperformance and why its dominance is waning.
• Peloton quarterly sales top $1 billion, but shares fall as cycle maker steps up investments.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Energy stocks and bonds shine after brutal slump, even as Biden moves to curb fossil fuels.

Zero Hedge:

• "Peaking" China Credit Impulse Suggests Copper Prices May Have Topped.
• Panasonic Is Quitting The Solar Panel Business.
• Biden's Energy Plan May Be Costly For Consumers.
• House Democrats And 11 Republicans Boot Greene From Committees Over QAnon.
• Imagine If The Virus Had Never Been Detected.
• Biden Vows To "Defend Democracy Globally", Says "Days Of Rolling Over" To Russia "Are Over".
• Alex Rodriguez' SPAC "Slam" Files For $500 Million IPO.
• From GOAT To Scapegoat: Redditor Who Made Millions During Gamestop Chaos Already Being Set Up To Take The Fall.
• Amazon Plans To Install AI Surveillance Cameras In Delivery Vans .
• The Stock Market Is Broken, Now For All To See.
• Mike Bloomberg Urges Biden To "Stand Up" To Teachers Unions Resisting Reopening, Tells Educators To "Suck It Up".
• Surging Dollar Could Be The Bull In Stock Rally's China Shop.
• Redditors Abandon Squeezes, Panic-Buy Penny-Stocks As USD Hits 2-Mo Highs.

Newsmax:

• Pompeo: China Sending 'Message' to Biden With Sanctions on Trump Officials.
• Biden Says US Set to Work With China When It Is in Our Interest.
• Sen. Hawley Has Received 'Tremendous Support' From Constituents Despite Calls to Resign.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• GOP Candidate Mellissa Carone Says Her Goal Is to Make Sure Dominion Voting Machines Are Removed from all Michigan Voting Stations.
• Newsom Recall Now “Unavoidable” – Newsom’s Poll Numbers Tank, More Than 1.4 Million Signatures Collected in Recall Effort.
• We Got It! TGP to Release SMOKING GUN Video from TCF Center in Detroit! …Update: OH BOY! Our Report WILL SHAKE the Political World!
• AOC Caught In Another Lie Lashes Out and Demands Social Media Giants Stop Users from Fact Checking What She Says.
• POLL: Who Has Done More Damage To The Republican Party – Mitch McConnell or Marjorie Taylor Greene?
• Biden to Sign Executive Order Restoring and Expanding “Refugee Program” Despite Ongoing Covid Pandemic (VIDEO).
• Psaki: “Even After You’re Vaccinated, Social Distancing and Wearing Masks Will be Essential” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• Frontline Nurse: Problems Abound in China’s Pandemic Prevention Efforts.
• China Insider: Republican Senators Urge for Relocation of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.0 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.22 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,259.0 +10.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.05 +1.15%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AON)/2.46
• (BERY)/.97
• (CAH)/1.45
• (CBOE)/1.23
• (EL)/1.69
• (ITW)/1.77
• (REGN)/8.29
• (SNY)/1.17
• (SPB)/.77
• (UI)/1.77
• (ZBH)/2.06
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Jan. is estimated to rise to 100K versus -140K in Dec.
• The Unemployment Rate for Jan. is estimated at 6.7% versus 6.7% in Dec.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in Dec. 
• The Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated to rise to -$65.7B versus -$68.1B in Nov.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Dec. is estimated to fall to $12.0B versus $15.274B in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Factory Orders report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.