Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,817.15 -1.0%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 31,322.87 -.14%

• NASDAQ 12,816.71 -5.1%

• Russell 2000 2,167.34 -3.22%

• S&P 500 High Beta 69.04 +1.72%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 296.77 -6.70%

• Wilshire 5000 40,037.0 -2.44%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,353.23 -3.86%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,440.20 +.77%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 657.88 +.68%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,411.14 -1.23%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,716.33 -6.6%

• Transports 13,473.80 -1.77%

• Utilities 808.26 +.95%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 69.24 +4.0%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 53.73 -1.05%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,357.0 +.03%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 929.59 +.15%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 451,580 -.48%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 272 -642

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -40.70 -.53%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 511,840 -.56%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,460,204 -1.89%

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +4.4%

• OEX Put/Call 1.09 +1.66%

• ISE Sentiment 95.0 -2.0 points

• NYSE Arms .95 +61.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,553.0 +36.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 26.4 -.36%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.28 -.72%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.1 -7.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.4 -4.66%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,180.07 -4.47%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.363 Trillion +.43%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +14.776 Million

• AAII % Bulls 40.3 -12.2%

• AAII % Bears 25.3 +6.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 193.50 +1.15%

• Crude Oil 66.32 +6.63%

• Reformulated Gasoline 206.30 +4.3%

• Natural Gas 2.68 -2.7%

• Heating Oil 194.56 +4.3%

• Gold 1,699.0 -2.16%
• Silver 25.29 -5.69%
  

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 234.82 -2.4% 

• Copper 407.85 -.54%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 465.0 USD/Metric Tonne+11.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 168.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.18%

• Lumber 867.90 -13.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,144.61 -.26%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 325.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +10.2% +1.2 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +22.9% +.8 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% -5.0 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -2.3 +14.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 72.2 -64.8%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 178.43 +.67%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 85.8 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 131.40 -25.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 55.20 -6.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 3/17

• US Dollar Index 91.97 +1.15%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,717.40 +.09%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 48,198.0 +4.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.42 +.22%

• Yield Curve 141.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.55% +10.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.518 Trillion -.43%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12.19 +6.3%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 262.17 -6.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.36 +5.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 199.93 +4.79%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.85 -.93%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.39 -5.0%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 99.74 +4.6%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.60 +.07%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23% +9.0 basis points

• TED Spread 14.25 -1.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 +1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.14 +1.12%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 364.0 -2.1%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.97 -4.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 195.18 +3.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 74.5 -9.25 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.5 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $18.128 Trillion +.01%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,098.90 +.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 790,750 -2.1%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.0% -10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.02% +5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 794,500 +.49%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.9 +1.6 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.1% +50.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.75/gallon +.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,779 +6.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,970.58 -4.3%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 18.50 -7.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 208.58 -2.0-%

• Rail Freight Carloads 271,248 +31.5%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -8.0%
  

Leading Sectors

• Energy +9.9%

• Oil Service +4.9%
  

• Foods +2.7%

• Tobacco +2.2%

• Steel +2.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Internet -8.3%
  

• Biotech -8.7%

• Semis -8.8%

• Digital Health -11.5%

• Alt Energy -17.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (27)

• TALO, CPE, CLR, DVN, FANG, GPS, ORCL, OII, APA, PFS, COP, GMS, AN, DAR, OXY, CVX, MUR, MGNX, HONE, LEA, WRK, TGI, FPI, EEFT, MRO, SM, FTAI, ENVA and CMC
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (58)

• DOCU, ENPH, BLI, ACTC, SDC, AFIB, RCL, SNOW, LMND, GMTX, TDOC, NEO, ONEM, GWRE, MILE, SWAV, IPOD, CIIC, VUZI, BTRS, VRM, CDNA, IIPR, NVTA, OPRX, CMLF, CHWY, PSNL, OKTA, SDGR, CRWD, SKLZ, NOVA, AKTS, AXTI, HIMS, APPH, SPCE, AMRC, TPGY, XONE, STPK, SEER, IPV, HEAR, CERT, CLPT and MDLA
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +44.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 42.8% of Issues Advancing, 54.5% Declining
• 125 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
• 83.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,378.0 +39.0 points
• Vix 28.6 +.5%
• Total Put/Call .96 +7.87%
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 +79.7%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.25 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.75 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.09 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,290.0 -49.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.15 +.74%.
• FTSE 100 futures -1.10%.

• S&P 500 futures -.58%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.74%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BIG)/2.50
• (GSX)/-2.49
  
• (HIBB)/1.37
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Feb. is estimated at 198K versus 49K in Jan. 
• The Unemployment Rate for Feb. is estimated at 6.3% versus 6.3% in Jan.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Jan.
• The Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated at -$67.5B versus -$66.6B in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Consumer Credit for Jan. is estimated at $12.0B versus $9.734B in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Factory Orders report, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for March and the (VG) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 31.75 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.45 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,515.0 -32.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.75 -.54%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.41%.

• S&P 500 futures -.29%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.47%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BJ)/.67
• (CCL)/-1.71
• (CIEN)/.45
• (JW/A)/.56
• (KR)/.68
• (MIK)/1.46
• (FIZZ)/.38
• (WB)/.71
  

After the Close:

• (AVGO)/6.56
• (COO)/2.79
• (COST)/2.31
• (GPS)/.18
• (PLYA)/-.47
• (NX)/.06
• (WORK)/-.03
• (SWBI)/.81
  

Economic Releases

 7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Feb.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 755K versus 730K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4300K versus 4419K the prior week.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a +1.1% gain in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone Retail Sales report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.5 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.5 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.66 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,547.0 +71.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.90 -.49%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.25%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BF/B)/.43
• (DLTR)/2.12
• (DY)/.07
• (PDCO)/.51
• (SINA)/.86
• (WEN)/.18
  

After the Close:

• (AEO)/.36
• (JEF)/.91
• (MRVL)/.29
• (OKTA)/-.01
• (RRGB)/-1.08
• (SNOW)/-.17
• (SQM)/.20
• (SPLK)/.03
  

Economic Releases

 8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Feb. is estimated to rise to 200K versus 174K in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Feb. is estimated at 58.7 versus 58.7 in Jan.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -735,200 barrels versus a +1,285,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,087,200 barrels versus a +12,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -3,484,700 barrels versus a -4,969,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +4.1% versus a -14.5% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book release.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Application report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.0 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.68 -.15%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,672.0 -7.8 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.1 +.66%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.24%.

• S&P 500 futures -.33%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANF)/1.22
• (AZO)/12.39
• (IGT)/-.04
• (KSS)/1.04
• (LL)/.50
• (SE)/-.75
• (TGT)/2.54
  

After the Close:

• (AMC)/-3.49
• (BGS)/.43
• (BOX)/.11
• (FUBO)/-.67
• (HPE)/.41
• (JWN)/.23
• (ROST)/1.00
• (URBN)/.27
  

Economic Releases

 

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Feb. are estimated to fall to 16.0M versus 16.63M in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (APH) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, weekly US retail sales reports and the German Retail Sales report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.