Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.5 +3.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 83.75 +1.75 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.17 -.07%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.4 +2.3%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.17 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +1.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.10%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.54%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.92%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Surging Long-Term Rates, Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.2 +11.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .84% +12.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.8 -2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.06 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.40 +.36%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 +19.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -24.0
  • Total Put/Call .96 +4.4%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -15.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.2 +3.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.67 +.27%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 329 -1
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.68 +2.1% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 297.60 -1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 203.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.2 -.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 238.7 +2.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 142.60 +.44%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -.14%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points +2.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 18.25 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 189.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 931.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.44%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.6 +3.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.2 +2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.7 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(146 of 500 reporting) +8.5% +6.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.26 unch.:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 17.5 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.10% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 10 reporting) +22.8% +43.7 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.39 +.24: Growth Rate +58.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.4 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.17 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.09 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -16.5 basis points (2s/10s) +9.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 68.9%(-5.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 60.6%(-4.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -295 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Internet -3.9% 2) Semis -3.9% 3) Gambling -3.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BANC, TNDM, TDOC, TWO, NEM, FIBK, IEX, CALX, ALGN, PAYX, LAD, CRNC, INTU, MTDR, TXN, CUZ, IART, VRT, IDYA, MEDP, TTMI, NAVI, SPOT, TTMI, PII, NSC, PYPL, AVTR, XP, TRU, ALKS, ODFL, CRL, SF, CSGP, NTLA, GPN, SFNC, TMO, HIW, BIPC, SQ, BILL, CFLT, RGEN, PKX, FTV, CHX, FOUR, GOOGL, ADP, RUSHA, CSTM, PRAA, OC, NVEI, SSYS, BYD, OPCH, MKTX, ERII, LTH, AFRM, GBX, ATEC and VICR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BMBL 2) VRT 3) MCHP 4) WBD 5) HTZ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) OC 2) VRT 3) SNAP 4) T 5) OTIS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +3.0% 2) Defense +.7% 3) Foods +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LRN, MITK, WM, RHI, COOP, PRG, MCO, MSTR and MNRO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HLT 2) CARR 3) Z 4) FLEX 5) WBD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LRN 2) GPS 3) WAB 4) EDU 5) WM

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MO)/1.29
  • (AMT)/2.41
  • (ARCH)/3.25
  • (BSX)/.48
  • (BMY)/1.76
  • (BC)/2.37
  • (BG)/2.50
  • (CMCSA)/.95
  • (FCN)/1.84
  • (HOG)/1.36
  • (HAS)/1.72
  • (HSY)/2.46
  • (HTZ)/.68
  • (HON)/2.23
  • (IP)/.58
  • (KDP)/.47
  • (LH)/3.33
  • (MAS)/.91
  • (MA)/3.21
  • (MDC)/1.20
  • (MRK)/1.95
  • (MBLY)/.17
  • (NEM)/.40
  • (NOC)/5.81
  • (OSTK)/-.83
  • (BTU)/.98
  • (RS)/5.00
  • (RCL)/3.46
  • (STX)/-.24
  • (SAH)/1.77
  • (LUV)/.38
  • (TSCO)/2.29
  • (TPH)/.57
  • (UPS)/1.52
  • (VLO)/7.47
  • (VC)/1.92
  • (VMC)/2.29
After the Close: 
  • (AB)/.62
  • (AMZN)/.59
  • (SAM)/4.07
  • (COF)/3.24
  • (CSL)/4.58
  • (CLS)/.60
  • (CMG)/10.55
  • (CUZ)/.65
  • (DECK)/4.43
  • (FE)/.85
  • (F)/.46
  • (HIG)/1.97
  • (INTC)/.22
  • (JNPR)/.55
  • (LHX)/3.03
  • (MHK)/2.65
  • (SKYW)/.40
  • (TEX)/1.72
  • (X)/1.12
  • (WY)/.34 
  • (FCFS)/1.38
  • (LEA)/2.61
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated to widen to -$86.0B versus -$84.6B in Aug.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in Aug.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.1% gain in Aug.
  • Advance 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ is estimated to rise +4.5% versus a +2.1% gain in 2Q.
  • Advance 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +4.0% versus a +.8% gain in 2Q.
  • Advance 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.7% versus a +1.7% gain in 2Q.
  • Advance 3Q PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +3.7% gain in 2Q.
  • Durable Goods Orders for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
  • Durables Ex Transports for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a +.9% gain in Aug. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 207K versus 198K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1740K versus 1734K prior.

10:00 am EST

  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -2.0% versus a -7.1% decline in Aug.

11:00 am EST

  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Oct. is estimated n/a versus -8.0 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (HAIN) general meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -5.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 unch.
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 30.6% of Issues Advancing, 66.8% Declining
  • 7 New 52-Week Highs, 280 New Lows
  • 27.0%(-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 -1
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.3 -.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,051.4 -.73%
  • 1-Day Vix 14.5 -9.9%
  • Vix 19.6 +3.2%
  • Total Put/Call .91 -1.1%
  • TRIN/Arms .77 -30.0%