Sunday, June 23, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
Zero Hedge: 

Wall Street Journal:

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (NKE).
CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @wideawake_media
  • @Resist_CBDC
  • @JamesMelville 
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @VigilantFox
  • Kevin O’Leary Explains Why Biden Is Doomed. “Inflation always hurts the incumbent.” • “Your buying power has been eroded by 30%.” • Meat prices up 38%. • Energy costs up 20%. • Housing prices through the roof. “You don’t care about anything except the fact that you’re getting squeezed ... That’s it. That’s what matters. That’s what the debate’s about. Everything else [is] interesting — not as important.” (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WarClandestine
  • @SteveLovesAmmo
  • @amuse
  • @WesternLensman
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 + basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 67.25 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.3 +2.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.8 +2.1%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.36%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Thursday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
Zero Hedge: 
CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • California’s $20 minimum wage “Boomerang” wipes out tens of thousands of jobs and hikes prices on customers who were already struggling. Chipotle is now planning another 9% price hike in California — it’s 5th hike in 2 years. One study put the additional cost at $250,000 per outlet. And with 80% of consumers already seeing fast food as a luxury, they simply can’t pay it. Many locations are shutting down — especially in California’s heIIscape cities. Those who remain are investing in kiosks or machines to replace the workers for good. Government's own research shows minimum wages kiII jobs and hike prices. But they keep doing it. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @stkirsch
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.75 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 66.5 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.1 +2.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 -.3%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @P_McCulloughMD
  • @JamesMelville
  • @Kylenabecker
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @VigilantFox 
  • @stkirsch
  • @newstart_2024

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Declining Eurozone Debt Angst, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.5 -1.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .54 -24.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.0 -1.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.5 +.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.6 -.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 8.8 -3.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 171.0 +39.0
  • Total Put/Call .82 -6.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +35.7%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$214.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 -1.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 279.5 +.63%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 277 -12
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.5 -3.5%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 182.4 -4.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.0 -.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.0 -2.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 127.2 +.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.16%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.25 basis points +.25 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.25 basis points -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 720.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 +.6%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.4 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.1 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +3.8% +.9 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 259.52 +.09:  Growth Rate +13.8% unch., P/E 21.1 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 334.63 +.17: Growth Rate +24.7% unch., P/E 33.9 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.05 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .58 unch.
  • US Yield Curve -49.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 54.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% unch.: CPI YoY +3.13% -2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 61.7%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 50.6%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -2.7% 2) Biotech -.7% 3) Alt Energy -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • NEE, AYI, ASTS, ALKT, TAK, LEN, MBLY, BALL, CERT, TARS, VRE, APGE, MIRM and URGN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IAU 2) BMBL 3) LEN 4) HES 5) FCEL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FSRN 2) GDRX 3) CORBF 4) BA 5) CMP
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) XLU 3) ITB 4) IYF 5) JETS