Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Taiwan, India Threaten China’s Top Spot in EM Equity Portfolios.
• Yen Rises as Traders Antsy Over Rate Checks, Likely Intervention.
• Bond Market Hits a Turning Point as Path Clears for Fed Cuts.
• Griffin, Singer Met With Trump About Funding White House Bid.
• UAW Chief Suggests Trump Is Headed for Victory Over Biden.
• Consumer Sentiment Among Democrats Slumps Following Presidential Debate.
• S&P 500 Rebound Leaves Big Banks Out on Earnings.
• Wall Street’s Broadening Trade Pressures Index-Tracking Billions.
• EV Maker VinFast to Delay Opening of US Factory by Three Years.

Zero Hedge:

• Where Inequality Is More & Less Rife.
• Public School Spending Increasing Faster Than Test Scores, Report Finds.
• Democrats Prefer Harris As Potential Alternative Candidate.
• A Time Of Famine, And A Time Of War...
• IRS Strikes Gold: $1 Billion Collected From Wealthy Tax Dodgers.
• White House Seeks To Clarify Its Clarification Of Biden's Health.
• China Unveils Military Drills With Russia, Accuses 'Hegemon' US Of Seeking To 'Control' Asia-Pacific.
• Will Debt Sink The American Empire?
• What Snapped? US Ground Beef Retail Prices Jump Most Since Covid Meatpacking Crisis.
• Fearing New Panama President Will Block Key Route To US, Migrants Flood Darién Gap.
• Visualizing The Soaring Costs Of US Fast Food Chains.
• A Big Wreck Is About To Happen At The Intersection Of Artificial Intelligence Boulevard And Net Zero Avenue.
• "Craziest Training Video": Anti-Woke Crusade Goes After John Deere.
• RFK Jr. Gains Ballot Access In More States, Roadblocks In Others.
• US Banks Suffer Biggest Deposit Drop SInce 'Tax Day' As Money-Market Fund Assets Surge To Record High.
• Stocks bid and Dollar sold with PPI in the rear view ahead of Powell - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Biden's Student Loan Plan "SAVE" Will Cost $230 Billion
• Moped-Mounted Crime Soars: Migrants Bring Third World Tactic To USA.
• Welcome To The 'Cover Your Ass' Olympics.
• Small Caps Break-Out To Best Week In 8 Months; Bonds & Bullion Big Week On Bad Data.

Wall Street Journal:   

• Big Banks Continue to Feel Pressure From Higher Rates.
• They Started a Design Firm in Their Living Room. Now They’re Making $50 Million a Year.
• America’s HR Lobby Scraps the ‘E’ From DEI.
• ‘Depression, Emptiness, No Hope.’ Life as an Israeli Hostage in Gaza.

CNBC:

• AT&T’s data breach deepens crisis for Snowflake 7 weeks after disclosing hack.
• JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns inflation and interest rates may stay higher.
• Meta lifts Trump’s Facebook and Instagram restrictions ahead of election.
• Upcoming earnings will determine whether stock market rotation is here to stay or a one-day wonder.

MarketWatch.com:

• Nvidia’s stock bounces back and could rally another 30%: analyst.
• With Broadcom’s stock split on deck, could these big companies follow? 
• Why AMD’s stock has been on a recent tear — and how it can keep cruising.
• Project 2025 think tank claims Biden might use force to retain White House. 
• Did hackers get your cellphone number from AT&T? Be extra vigilant about these money-related scams.

NewsMax: 

• Two Dozen Dems Nudge Beleaguered Biden: Make It an Open Convention.
• RNC's Pigott: Trump 'Dominating' Battleground States.

Fox News:

• Elon Musk reportedly donates to presidential candidate's PAC in apparent reversal of stance.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BREAKING: Judge Dismisses Charges Against Alec Baldwin in Middle of Trial Over Concealed Evidence – Baldwin Breaks Down in Court (VIDEO).
• Conservative Italian PM Giorgia Meloni Shows Annoyance With Biden’s Lateness to NATO Summit, Biden Gets Handsy Again (VIDEO).
• Globalist Justice: Polish Priest Imprisoned Without Charges, Denied Food and Water and Tortured in Solitary Confinement for Weeks.
• Biden’s Zoom Call with Hispanic Lawmakers Goes Sideways, Host Abruptly Ends Call After Democrat Tells Biden to Drop Out of Race.
• JUST IN: NY Judge Dismisses Giuliani’s Bankruptcy, Opening Door For Georgia Election Workers to Collect Judgment.
• Exclusive: U.S. Military is “Fundamentally and Systematically Infected” With Leftist Ideology, and the Slides Prove It Says Inside Source.
• AT&T Confirms Another Massive Cyberattack With ‘Nearly All’ Customers Affected.

Epoch Times:

• Is China ‘Bombing’ Mockups of U.S. Jets in Drills?
• US Coast Guard Spots Chinese Warships Near Alaska.
• CCP Was Founded by Foreign Forces and Brought Disaster to Nearly Half of Delegates at First Congress.

Around X:

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “It’s very real - it’s now openly admitted”. Kristen Meghan is a military veteran who is a whistleblower on the Global Geo-Engineering currently taking place across the planet. Listen.

• @liz_churchill10
  

• Like an Arsonist posing as a Firefighter…guess who’s funding the Bird Flu Summit?

• @WallStreetSilv

• EviI abounds in our government. (video)
  

• @KariLake

• @RubenGallego just voted in SUPPORT of putting biological men in women's sports, bathrooms, locker rooms, and dorms. He also voted to police your speech to PUNISH you for calling out this gender insanity. As the mother of a daughter, this appalls me. It should sicken you, too.

• @LizCrokin

• Leftist Mainstream Media Corrects Democrat Liars Pushing False Claims About Trump & Jeffrey Epstein! Well, well, well…what do we have here!

• @BehizyTweets

• BREAKING: The Mayor of Springfield, Ohio, a town with a population of 58,082 just announced that his city has been conquered by over 20,000 Haitian illegals that the Biden regime brought in. "We do not have the capacity to sustain that, it's taxing our infrastructure, it's taxing public safety, it's taxing our schools, it's taxing healthcare, and taxing our housing." (video)

• @EmeraldRobinson

• BREAKING: The Georgia State Election Board has scheduled an emergency meeting today. Why? Because corrupt Fulton County officials have created a team of "monitors" for the 2024 election that HAVE NO APPROVAL FROM THE STATE. They're getting ready to cheat. Again.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,012,894 Reports(+1,222 from prior report) Through June 28th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.3 -5.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .79 +24.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.8 +1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 189.1 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.0 -1.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 7.8 -6.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 158.0 +4.0
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -3.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.41 +36.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$436.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.1 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 270.58 -.68%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 270 +7
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.79 -.98%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 150.6 -.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.2 +.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 155.3 -2.3%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 135.8 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.96 +.3%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.0 basis points +1.5 basis pointS
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 1.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 723.0 +3.0 basis pointS
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 62.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.36 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.34% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.95%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.5 -1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.9 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.8 +2.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(26 of 500 reporting) +8.8% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.26 n/a:  Growth Rate +14.4% n/a, P/E 21.5 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.81% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 331.81 n/a: Growth Rate +23.7% n/a, P/E 35.8 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .98 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .82 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -27.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.0% +30.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.3% +1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% -22.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.01% -11.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 88.1%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 56.6%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -55 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +157 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/biotech/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -.9% 2) Airlines -.1% 3) Banks +.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HUBS, HE, VRNA, ZIM, RXST, WFC, INDV, LBPH and ABR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) QS 2) ABR 3) WSM 4) NNOX 5) HUN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ABR 2) CMBM 3) WFC 4) SISI 5) T
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) IBB 3) ITB 4) JETS 5) ITA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.2% 2) Homebuilding +3.4% 3) Semis +3.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SMR, PLSE, GRPN, RIVN, IREN, CRBP, ARRY, ASTS, HUT, RUN, STVN, VRDN, MARA, JMIA, KYMR, CVNA, NATL, ENPH, AOSL, RNG, DKS, INMD, CLSK, TEM, FDMT, MBUU, BLDR, BZH, BK, LMND, INTC, BYON, GNRC, DNUT, APPF, EYPT, DNUT, FIVN, RH, BTDR, SQ, CFLT, SAVA, WGO, NTLA, ETSY, POOL, MIRM, SEDG, AEHR, SSNC, SGH, DPZ, KBH, BXP, SW, TREX, IBP, CATX, XENE, FERG, CUBE, TSLA, WCC, PWP, DHI, LEN, FLR, AGNC, THO, KRC, XENE, INST, CORZ, GLPI, LEU, ARR and SKY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QS 2) LCID 3) XLI 4) NNOX 5) ITB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TIL 2) EVGO 3) INTC 4) UNTY 5) BK
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) KRE 5) XLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BLK)/9.98
• (GS)/8.35
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for July is estimated at -6.0 versus -6.0 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (AVGO) 10-for-1
• (USLM) 5-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed Chairman Powell speaking and the Fed's Daly speaking could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +3.2
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 75.3% of Issues Advancing, 22.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 +23.1%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$343.7M
  
• 256 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 62.9% (+5.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 70.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.5 +1.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 238.6 +.03%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,075.3 -.13%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 58.0 (GREED) +7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.8 -17.7%
  
• Vix 12.3 -4.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 unch.