Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/4.60
• (IART)/.62
• (MCD)/3.07
• (ON)/.92
  

After the Close: 

• (CHK)/unch.
• (CR)/1.24
• (EQR)/.96
• (FFIV)/2.97
• (FLS)/.63
• (LSCC)/.24
• (RMBS)/.44
• (SANM)/1.28
• (SBAC)/3.27
• (SFM)/.78
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to rise to -14.2 versus -15.1 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Dallas Fed PCE for June could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.3 +1.5
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 70.2% of Issues Advancing, 26.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 +20.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$292.3M
  
• 158 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 66.4% (+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 51.3 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.7 +.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,444.9 -.34%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.0 -25.7%
  
• Vix 17.0 -7.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 -4.1%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• ‘Crazy’ Yen Rally Is at Risk of Shattering as Soon as Next Week.
• TSMC Joins Global Tech Rout as Trading Resumes After Typhoon.
• Singapore Home Prices Slow, Rents Fall in Cooling Market.
• Asian Stocks Edge Higher Alongside US Futures.
• Oil Heads for Third Weekly Loss as China Weakness Sets the Tone.
• Great Rotation Trade Turns Spotlight on Less Obvious AI Winners.
• Markets Tear Up Popular Trades That Reached ‘Stupid Levels’.
• Harvard's $465 Million in Tax Benefits Draw New Scrutiny.
• The US Economy Is Slowing, Which Is Just Fine With the Fed.

Zerohedge:  

• Major American Cities Facing 'Day Zero Water' Crisis, Say Experts.
• Tesla And BYD Claim A Third Of Global EV Market.
• Utah Attorney Catches FBI Deception In OKC Bomb Records Case.
• To Join California's Top 1-Percent, A Household Must Earn More Than $1 Million Per Year.
• Peak Summer Arrives With Maximum Climate Fear By MSM .
• Gain Of Function, Loss Of... Everything Else.
• Chief University Diversity Officers Are Not Very Diverse...
• US stocks were mixed as participants digested on data releases including US GDP, while attention turns to PCE Price data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Illinois' Out-Migration Losses: Measuring The Destructive Impact On The State's Tax Base.
• Kamala Harris Receives Bipartisan Condemnation For Her Handling Of The Border.
• Stocks mixed and treasuries flatten after GDP beats ahead of PCE - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Coup Upon Coup Upon Coup. 
• Mega-Cap Meltdown Continues As 'Good News' Sends Rate-Cut Hopes Reeling.

Wall Street Journal:

• Harris Touts Tough-on-Crime Image That Was Once a Liability.
• Mexican Drug Lord Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada Arrested in U.S.
• Biden’s Supreme Court-Smacking Plan. Does Kamala Harris support these dubious ideas to undermine judicial independence?
• In Picking Kamala Harris, Democrats Follow the Tories’ Folly. Conservatives suffered an electoral shellacking when party elites chose a leader the voters didn’t like.
• Southwest Fans Wonder if the Airline Has Changed Forever.
• U.S. Intercepts Russian and Chinese Bombers on First Joint Mission Off Alaska.

CNBC.com:

• How Visa employed artificial intelligence to check $40 billion in fraud as scammers also take to AI.
• Lineage closes up more than 3% in market’s largest IPO of 2024.
• Dexcom shares plummet almost 40% after company misses on revenue, lowers guidance.
• Many EV owners around the world want to go back to buying gas cars.
• Samsung hints at new products as it bets on AI to drive upgrades to its latest foldable phones.

MarketWatch.com: 

• This bond-market recession signal just went on a wild ride. Here’s what it’s saying. 
• Lululemon’s stock gets a downgrade as spending on activewear slows further.
• ServiceNow’s stock logs best day since 2022 upon ‘unique’ AI traction.
• Alphabet’s stock falls as OpenAI teases ChatGPT search prototype.

Fox News:

• Legal watchdog accuses Harris of ‘bending’ the law ‘for political objective,’ opens investigations.
• Peeved Biden campaign co-chair lashes out at wealthy donors for turning their backs.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Chuck Grassley Releases Full Bodycam Footage from Beaver County Emergency Services, Revealing the Full Aftermath of Trump Assassination Attempt.
• NEW: Here is the FBI Official Who Expressed Disappointment Trump Survived Assassination Attempt.
• “Do You Know Who’s Handing These Out?” Doocy Brings the Receipts, Holds Up Talking Points About Kamala Harris and the Border (VIDEO).
• Rupert Murdoch in Legal Battle With Own Children to Preserve Media Empire’s Conservative Bent.
• OMG: O’Keefe Media Group Reveals Internal Videos and Documents Exposing Disney’s “Gender Expression Transitioning” Program (VIDEO).
• SICK: Amazon Selling Merchandise Promoting President Trump’s Death After He Was Nearly Assassinated.
• Six House Democrats Join Republicans in Condemning ‘Border Czar’ Kamala Harris’s Illegal Invasion.
• ‘Non-Partisan’ Website Erases Page Showing Kamala Harris Was Most Liberal of All 100 Senators in 2019.
• COVER-UP: Trump Assassin’s Home SCRUBBED Clean like a “Medical Lab” Before Police Arrived | Elijah Schaffer’s Top 5 (VIDEO).
• Crooks Made Three Explosive Devices with Remote Detonation Capability – No Online Search History of Bomb Making and Hatched Assassination Plot Just 7 Days Before Butler Rally.
• VP for Fraternal Order of Police Warns Kamala Harris Would Be “An Unmitigated Disaster for Public Safety in This Country” If She Becomes President (Watch).
• Paris Olympics: Flame Relay Features 3 Drag Queens.

The Epoch Times:

• Russian, Chinese Bombers Patrol Near Alaska.
• China’s Third Plenum Planners Face Big Problems Besides the Property Crisis.
  

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• People who have been lifelong Democrats refuse to accept the clear reality that the Democratic Party is rapidly become openly antisemitic. This trend is accelerating, not slowing down. Knock, knock. Hello, Captain Obvious here!

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Independents Only- Trump: 53% (+20) Harris: 33% Someone Else: 9% Not Sure: 5%. We have done more Harris polling than almost any pollster. So this is no surprise to us. And it’s consistent with our last Biden v Trump poll. She did not improve on Biden. (poll)
  

• @HawleyMO 

• NEW - Whistleblower tells me local law enforcement partners & suppliers offered drones to Secret Service BEFORE the rally - but Secret Service declined.

• @thevivafrei
  

• Remember everyone, Kamala Harris was never the “border czar”. Believe the lie. Repeat the lie. Because you’re Democrats. That’s what Democrats do. (pic)
  

• @MikeBenzCyber

• at what point do we call this a war crime...

• @LauraLoomer

• TRUMP TO BE SENTENCED BY JUDGE MERCHAN ON SEPTEMBER 18th. JUDGE MERCHAN’S DAUGHTER LOREN MERCHAN SERVED AS THE DIRECTOR OF DIGITAL PERSUASION FOR @KamalaHarris’s 2020 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. KAMALA HARRIS HAS PAID LOREN MERCHAN’S COMPANY OVER $7.5 MILLION.

• @HealthRanger
  

• UPDATE: After many days of analyzing audio, video and photographic evidence of the attempted assassination of President Trump, I cannot currently find any evidence whatsoever to support the notion that Crooks fired any shots at all.

• @WallStreetApes

• EXPOSED. Kamala Harris Huge Campaign Donation Influx Is ActBlue Money Laundering. ACTBLUE “Swiss billionaire, lives in Wyoming made $20 million donation broken down into 1.6 million individual donations across 400,000 donors. The scale of fraud that is now being alleged is mind blowing.” FULL: “Everyone’s talking about all this massive influx of money that has come into the now Kamala campaign. It's absolutely bizarre. So where is all this money coming from? Swiss billionaire, apparently, lives in Wyoming. It's just crazy. This is who is making all these donations.
  

• @JoeyMannarinoUS

• This is how Kamala Harris raised all that money in one day. Silver Throat’s donors mostly had no idea they even donated. Watch every second of this: (video)
  

• @realLizUSA
  

• Raffensperger’s general counsel is holding evidence hostage from the State Election Board. They can only see the ballot images if they agree to drop the investigation into why there were over 20,000 unsubstantiated votes in both the original and machine recount in 2020. (pic)

• @ImMeme0 

• Make it go viral! They are using ActBlue to launder money to their preferred campaigns. This explains how Harris raised $100 million in less than 36 hours. Carl Higbie just did a segment on irregular FEC donations, which corroborates his report. The question is, what is the @GOP going to do about it since we are three months away from the presidential election? (video)
  

• @naomirwolf 

• I warned you. They are redefining health freedom as a security problem. ‘Anti-vaccine aggression’. (video)

• @TaraBull808

• How long has ActBlue been laundering money to Democrats using elderly people's names? This is likely how Kamala Harris 'raised' over $100M in a day. (video)
  

• @BennyJohnson

• MATT GAETZ FULL SAVAGE MODE. Rep. Gaetz leaves FBI Director Wray SPEECHLESS after asking POINT-BLANK about Biden's mental handicaps: "Democrat Members of this committee have declared Biden unfit for office. When did you notice decline? Who is running the country?" WATCH: (video)
  

• @EndWokeness

• The media is claiming that Kamala Harris was NEVER Biden's border czar. Unfortunately for the regime, we have 𝕏. Here's the moment she got the title: (video)

• @JackPosobiec
  

• BREAKING: DNC moves to hold 'virtual' nomination of Kamala before August convention, blocks delegates from nominating new candidate despite Kamala receiving zero votes.

• @amuse
  

• More and more clips of Kamala Harris delivering remarks while drunk and/or high are surfacing. Question remains: Can she stay on the wagon until the election? (video)

• @WarClandestine

• Trump is meeting with world leaders, already negotiating deals for peace in the Middle East and in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kamala is on Ru Paul, pandering to the 2SLGBTQIA+ community, demanding they vote for her. We have entered the 9th layer of hell. (video)
  

• @UngaTheGreat

• STUDY: 93% of Top US University Presidents Donate to Democrats. A College Fix analysis shows about 93% of top U.S. university presidents donate to Democratic campaigns. The study examined federal and state political campaign donation data for 15 out of 25 top-ranked university presidents. It found that 14 gave to Democrats, with 12 donating exclusively to Democratic campaigns and two giving primarily to Democrats, with smaller amounts to Republicans.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,012,894 Reports(+1,222 from prior report) Through June 28th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.5 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 68.0 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne +3.2%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.0 +5.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.7 -2.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%.

• S&P 500 futures +.38%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.44%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Positive US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -4.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.40 +81.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.8 +.05%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.6 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 +3.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.3 -3.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -6.0
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -11.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.41 +95.8%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$146.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.5 -.19%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 269.4 -.16%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 244 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.8 +2.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.3 +2.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.7 +3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 169.3 -.14%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 128.0 -.04%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -3.0 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 684.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.30% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.4 +1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.4 -7.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -3.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(180 of 500 reporting) +6.3% +1.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.38 +.04:  Growth Rate +14.9% unch., P/E 20.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +19.8% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.01 -.51: Growth Rate +24.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 32.8 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 -18.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .69 -13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -19.0 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.61% -12.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.6% +1.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 89.6%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 57.5%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -2.3% 2) Gold & Silver -1.7% 3) Computer Hardware -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DAVE, LW, NYCB, NEP, RCL, WDC, ALGN, ITGR, FPI, EWTX, INVH, FORM, WST, TLN, TER, LKQ, F, EW and MXL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) URA 3) ACI 4) NBR 5) LUMN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) F 2) LKQ 3) TWOU 4) WST 5) QS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLC 3) XLE 4) XLY 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +4.4% 2) Computer Services +4.4% 3) Oil Service +3.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VKTX, GSHD, BALY, ASTS, SERV, INDV, NOW, CRS, MOH, PEGA, HZO, LAZ, POOL, HP, OII, RTX, TYL, UHS, WH, CLB, KNX, HNI, TRU, MAS, EVH, COOP, RPM, CDMO, FCF, NDAQ, HOG, BC, JLL, NOC, LPLA, LUV, VC, JBHT, DOV, CFR, HRI, MC, NMRK, SSB, SNDR, IBM, IRDM, WAL, ORLY, SVV, TOWN, EVR, CCS, URI, FSS, MTG, AAL, TMO, FTI, IGMS, LADR, ASB, OTIS, GTY, HAS, CFB and PI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EW 2) FI 3) NOW 4) SO 5) ASPN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VKTX 2) GSHD 3) MOH 4) POOL 5) NOW
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) FTEC 3) SOXX 4) EUFN 5) XLV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume