Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Escalating Mid-East Tensions, VP Harris "Poll Gains", Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.8 +44.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.78 -19.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 36.0 -24.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.2 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.2 +6.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.5 +45.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +4.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.16 +27.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.60 +9.6%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$669.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.2 +6.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 334.0 +11.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 260 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.2 +7.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 183.4 +6.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 146.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.9 +3.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 182.8 +4.9%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 139.1 +7.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 -.33%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -15.5 basis points -7.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 134.0-7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 688.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 62.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.19% -7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -40.6 -6.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.7 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.0 +.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(376 of 500 reporting) +11.0% -.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 263.48 +.35:  Growth Rate +15.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 -.5
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.78% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.9% +2.3 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 338.49 +1.86: Growth Rate +26.2% +.7 percentage point, P/E 31.4 -1.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .51 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -8.75 basis points (2s/10s) +9.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.55% -28.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 65.4% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -16.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 46.0%(+46.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 46.3%(+43.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,080 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +149 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/financial/tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts, then covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -3.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -5.8% 2) Oil Service -5.4% 3) Gambling -4.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SHAK, WDC, VRT, PINS, C, OMF, AXP, CDNS, SGH, MRNA, CCJ, WOLF, CLS, ACLS, LRCX, CLMT, CFLT, BKNG, ASML, BFH, KLAC, ALB, MCHP, APO, RGA, JBL, DKNG, COHR, IRTC, WSC, AMZN, SNPS, CIVI, PRU, SEM, SMFG, MP, BZH, FORM, LNC, NXT, HTGC, ZIMV, BECN, TROX, CC, AL, OLED, TWST, TEAM, PCOR, GTLS, XPOF, OEC, INTC and TPC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AEM 2) IGV 3) CHPT 4) CFG 5) UNP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CRWD 2) SNAP 3) INTC 4) AMZN 5) MU
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) KRE 3) AIQ 4) XLI 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Restaurants +.4% 2) Foods +.3% 3) Utilities +.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TNDM, IAS, RKT, RARE, FDP, BFAM, MELI, TWLO, FLYW, GDYN, SAVA, DASH, RYAN, NET, DJT, CLX, INSP, MMSI, CNK, EZPW, MKTX, OHI, CBOE, BUD, PSA, PFSI, REG, ELS, CPT, AMH, ABR and ALAB
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AHCO 2) KVUE 3) BITI 4) OIH 5) GPN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TNDM 2) NET 3) FLYW 4) DASH 5) TWLO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) XLK 3) XLV 4) SOXX 5) XLC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/-2.02
• (CG)/.83
• (FRPT)/-.04
• (KRYS)/.74
• (SAH)/1.38
• (THS)/.13
• (TSN)/.57
  

After the Close: 

• (CAR)/2.49
• (BCC)/2.68
• (CHGG)/.23
• (CSX)/.48
• (FANG)/4.50
• (SPG)/2.95
• (SUM)/.61
• (VNO)/.54
• (WMB)/.38
• (YUMC)/.47
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• ISM Services Index for July is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 48.8 in June.
• ISM Prices Paid for July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Daly speaking, Senior Bank Loan Officer Survey and the KeyBanc Tech Leadership Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +55.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 -3.1
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 17.6% of Issues Advancing, 81.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.72 +17.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$528.6M
  
• 134 New 52-Week Highs, 113 New Lows
• 55.0% (-11.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 -13
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 35.5 -25.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 222.3 -3.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,406.8 +.15%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (FEAR) -13.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 27.9 +14.3%
  
• Vix 26.0 +40.0%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.16 +27.5%

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ARCB)/2.07
• (BERY)/2.07
• (CBOE)2.10
• (CVX)/2.93
• (CHD)/.84
• (XOM).2,02
• (FLR)/.67
• (LYB)/2.23
• (MGA)/1.44
• (PRGO)/.46
• (PPL)/.33
• (AES)/.36
• (SRCL)/.55
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 175K versus 206K in June.
• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated at 4.1% versus 4.1% in June.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for June is estimated to fall -3.2% versus a -.5% decline in May.
• Durable Goods Orders final revisions for June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US Baker Hughes Rig Count and weekly CFTC speculative positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST