Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +31.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 -3.3
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 77.3% of Issues Advancing, 21.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.73 +121.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$37.5M
  
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 28.2% (+9.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.8 +5.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.5 +5.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 224.5 +2.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,293.6 +.31%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 29.5 +1.4%
  
• Vix 29.5 -3.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• After democrats started arresting Trump's lawyers, the gloves were off. They burned the constitution in order to steal power and lost. Trump must crush the deep state betrayers or the US is lost. Yes.
• “Dr. Anthony Fauci’s fortune doubled — hitting about $15 million — between early 2019 and the end of 2023 over the course of the pandemic, including ‘during the worst of the draconian COVID lockdowns,’’ according to records obtained by a watchdog group. Fauci’s net worth was about $7.6 million in January 2019 before COVID-19 hit and surged to about $15 million by the end of 2023, 141 pages of financial-disclosure forms obtained by watchdog group Open The Books revealed.”
  

• @ZeroHedge

• US Propane Tanker Diverts Chinese Port Call In Latest Warning Sign For China's Plastic Factories.
• How Junk Food Took Hold In The US And What RFK Jr. Is Doing About It.
• Harvard Law School Professors Politicize The Rule Of Law.
• Tesla Misses On Sales, EPS , Slams "Uncertainty" In Automotive Market, But Affirms Affordable Model "Remains On Track" For H1 2025
• Stocks & Bitcoin Pop, Gold Drops As Trump Says "Had No Intention Of Firing" Powell.

• @MarioNawful

• TRUMP: THIS IS THE GOLDEN AGE... CHINA WANTS TO BE A PART OF THAT TOO. “Long time, we've had a very good relationship, and I think we'll make a deal with China. If we don't make a deal, we'll set it. We'll just set the number and, you know, think they'll wanna be a part of The United States. We're talking about the golden age. It will never be a time like this, in my opinion and China wants to be a part of that too.” (video)
• ELON: NO ONE CAN COMPETE WITH TESLA’S AI — WE BUILT IT FROM SCRATCH. "Worth noting that Tesla has both an incredible AI software team and an AI hardware chip design team—from scratch. We didn’t acquire anyone. We just built it. So yeah, it’s really… I mean, I don’t see anyone being able to compete with Tesla at present.”
• SEC. KENNEDY WE ARE SPENDING $1.8T ON CHRONIC DISEASE AND IT’S BANKRUPTING OUR NATION. “They weren’t part of the dialogue. There was zero spent in this country treating chronic disease when my uncle was president. Today, it’s about $1.8 trillion annually—it’s bankrupting our nation. Seventy-four percent of American kids cannot qualify for military service. How are we going to maintain our global leadership with such a sick population?” (video)
• TRUMP: EGG PRICES ARE DOWN 94%— THE FED SHOULD CUT RATES NEXT. "The cost of eggs has come down like 93, 94% since we took office. They’re pretty much normally priced now. A great job—our Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, did a very good job. But groceries have come down. It’s all coming down. The only thing that hasn’t come down—but it hasn’t gone up much—are interest rates, and we think the Fed should lower the rate.” (video)
• ELON COMMITS FULL FOCUS BACK TO TESLA AMID CHALLENGING QUARTER. Elon announced plans to significantly reduce his government efficiency duties and recommit his innovation skills to the electric vehicle pioneer facing temporary headwinds. Elon on the earnings call: "My time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly".
• AUTO INDUSTRY TO TRUMP: "PUMP THE BRAKES ON PARTS TARIFFS". 6 major auto industry groups—yep, the folks behind your favorite car brands—just hit Trump’s inbox with a panic letter. 
• TRUMP: WE’LL SET THE DEAL IF COUNTRIES DON’T COME TO THE TABLE. "And other countries have to make a deal. And if they don’t make a deal, we’ll set the deal—because we’re the ones that set the deal. Scott, Howard, myself, and others—we’re going to be setting the deal. And it’ll be a fair deal for everybody. I think it’s a process that’s going to go pretty quickly.”

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.25 -6.5 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 65.75 -4.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.87 -.67%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 53.9 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.36% -4.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.7 -3.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.53%. 
• S&P 500 futures +1.54%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.72%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Global Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.03% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.2 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.2 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.9 -3.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.9 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(81 of 500 reporting) +6.1% -.7 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.97 -.24:  Growth Rate +12.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +23.7% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.10 +.24: Growth Rate +20.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 26.7 +.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.67 -20.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +55.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 12.7 unch.
• US Yield Curve 58.0 basis points (2s/10s) -7.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.2% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.1% -1.8 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.22 +9.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +4.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 59.9% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 50.5%(-8.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +655 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +299 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APH)/.52
• (T)/.53
• (AVY)/2.31
• (BA)/-1.26
• (BSX)/.67
• (CHKP)/2.19
• (CME)/2.80
• (GEV)/.45
• (GD)/3.50
• (LAD)/7.81
• (COOP)/2.90
• (NEE)/.97
• (NSC)/2.66
• (ODFL)/1.14
• (PM)/1.61
• (R)/2.41
• (TDY)/4.92
• (TMO)/5.10
• (VRT)/.61
• (WFRD)/.86
  

After the Close: 

• (ALK)/-.77
• (CACI)/5.61
• (CSL)/3.42
• (CMG)/.28
• (DFS)/3.37
• (IBM)/1.42
• (KNX)/.24
• (LRCX)/1.00
• (LVS)/.58
• (MTH)/1.69
• (MOH)/5.97
• (NEM)/.90
• (OII)/.30
• (ORLY)/9.86
• (RJF)/2.45
• (RS)/3.64
• (RHI)/.36
• (NOW)/3.83
• (RTXN)/1.07
• (URI)/8.78
• (WHR)/1.70
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for April is estimated to fall to 49.0 versus 50.2 in March.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for April is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 54.4 in March.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for April is estimated to fall to 52.2 versus 53.5 in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for March is estimated to rise to 685K versus 676K in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,690,230 barrels versus a +515,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,407,670 barrels versus a -1,958,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -311,170 barrels versus a -1,851,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.73% versus a -.4% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (AVY) annual meeting, (TDY) annual meeting, (CI) annual meeting, (AN) annual meeting, (BLMN) annual meeting and the (ETN) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -21.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +1.1
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 83.3% of Issues Advancing, 15.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 +9.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$255.0M
  
• 17 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 21.8% (-11.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.8 +4.5

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.6 +5.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 218.8 +.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,293.6 +.31%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 24.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +6.0
• 1-Day Vix 28.0 -32.0%
  
• Vix 30.7 -9.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 -16.5%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• "The truth is simple: in today’s America, the regulatory state isn’t solving problems — it is the problem." Ohio gubernatorial candidate @VivekGRamaswamy lays out why it’s time to end the administrative state — as @POTUS, @elonmusk & @DOGE put money back in American wallets.
• 1/ The Government Fraud That Could Prosecute Thousands. Remember Oliver North from Iran-Contra? Prosecuted for mislabeling funds. Thiel: "You could prosecute THOUSANDS of bureaucrats for the same crime." They're hiding billions by labeling political operations as "food to Africa." (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• EXCLUSIVE: Pro-DACA Biden Holdover To Assume Role Of Deputy TSA Administrator. Another day, another vetting failure in the Trump administration.
• Mark my word. Bookmark this. There’s going to another Eric Ciraramella move against President Trump out of DNI and it will be timed for the midterms to rile the Democrats up to take back the House and impeach Trump. This is what’s going to happen since the Biden holdovers at the intel agencies haven’t been fired. Mark my word. It’s time to clean house at DNI @TulsiGabbard.
  

• @MarioNawful

• TRUMP: WHY DO I NEED 500,000 TRIALS WHEN BIDEN LET IN MILLIONS WITHOUT ANY? “How can Biden let millions of criminals into our country, totally unchecked and unvetted, with no legal authority to do so, yet I… am expected to go through a lengthy legal process, separately, for each and every criminal alien? As usual, TWO DIFFERENT STANDARDS—only leading to the destruction of the U.S.A. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” (pic)
• TERROR SUSPECT LIVED FREE IN U.S. FOR TWO YEARS AFTER SLIPPING PAST BIDEN’S BORDER. Harpreet Singh, accused of planning grenade attacks and funding terror ops in India, was arrested by ICE in Sacramento after entering the U.S. illegally in 2022—and being released. Yes, released. 
• SEC. HEGSETH: ANONYMOUS SMEARS WON’T STOP US. "See, this is what the media does. They take anonymous sources from disgruntled former employees and try to slash and burn people—ruining their reputations. Not gonna work with me. (video)
• TRUMP WANTS A BABY BOOM — WITH BONUSES, BADGES & BIRTH CHARTS. The Trump admin is officially in baby-boosting mode, pitching plans that sound part policy, part reality show.
• TRUMP AND XI ARE PLAYING A GLOBAL GAME OF ECONOMIC JENGA... AND IT'S GETTING WOBBLY. This isn’t just a trade war anymore. It’s economic Jenga, and both sides are pulling the same crucial piece: global supply chains. Spoiler alert — the tower’s wobbling.
• TEXAS-SIZED VISION: ELON BUILDS TECH EMPIRE IN RURAL BASTROP. The world’s richest man is turning a quiet Texas town into a high-tech powerhouse, with HQs for X, SpaceX, and The Boring Company rising just outside Austin. Over 400 jobs, $280M in investment, and a booming local economy are just the beginning. (pic)
• STEPHEN MILLER: THE LEFT IS WARPING OUR JUDICIAL SYSTEM FOR POLITICAL PAYBACK. "How many pressing constitutional issues have been swept aside that American citizens need resolved? Who are being persecuted by left-wing mayors, left-wing governors, left-wing bureaucrats who actually need relief?" (video)
  

• @zerohedge 

• Former State Department Official Warns Of Deep State's 'Undeclared Second Cold War' On Populism.
• Drugged Into Oblivion: More Than 60% Of US Adults Admit That They Are Taking Pharmaceutical Drugs. 
• Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Disappears.
• Why More People Are Testing Their Blood Without A Doctor. 
• What American Hardline Retailers Are Saying about Tariff Fallout.
• Gold & Crypto Surge, Dollar & Stocks Purged As Trump-Fed Feud Escalates.

• @kylenabecker

• This is how propaganda works. Count the number of times the media calls an MS-13 gang member and foreign national a "Maryland man." (video)

• @LiveSquawk

• China Cuts Off New Investment In US Private Equity – FT.

• @Libsoftiktok

• Democrat Rep Yassamin Ansari is in El Salvador fighting for the release of an MS-13 terrorist gang member. Protecting foreign terrorists is the hill Democrats are dying on. Unreal. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter

• Appetite for leverage is historically high: Global leveraged equity funds attracted a record $14 billion in net inflows 2 weeks ago. This is nearly TRIPLE the previous high posted during the 2020 pandemic. Last week alone, US leveraged long ETFs saw a record $6.6 billion in inflows. At the same time, the 3x leveraged Nasdaq 100 long ETF, $TQQQ, took in a whopping $2.3 billion. The majority of inflows were driven by retail investors. Record leverage will drive more volatility. (graph)

• @WallStreetApes

• RFK Jr needs to see this. This is one of the Most Important Videos you will watch. ‌ American Farmer says he’s tested his soil and it has 5x the amount of aluminum it used to have. The GMO seeds grow fine, all his heirloom seed crops are all the sudden failing (shows proof). Reminder, Bill Gates is creating GMO seeds that grow in aluminum rich soil. I’ve posted the video proof. ‌ RFK Jr said he would fight our skies being sprayed. This needs immediate attention. We are being ruled by extremely evil people and if this continues, one day only their GMO seeds will be the ones that grow. They’ll have total control of our food supply. (video)

• @amuse

• TREASON: Top Democrats sends chilling warning to countries cooperating with the US - once Democrats are in power they will punish nations who dare to work with the US while Trump is in power. Congress should censure Rep Raskin. (pic)

@kylenabecker This is how propaganda works. Count the number of times the media calls an MS-13 gang member and foreign national a "Maryland man." (video)Quote

• @Matt_Vanswol

• Not a single one of the 5 Democrats that flew to El Salvador to meet with a criminal, wife-beating, illegal immigrant gang member… …ever showed up to help us, their fellow Americans, after Hurricane Helene in Western North Carolina. Not one. (video)

• @judgejeaninne

• Charlie Kirk Is Right! (pic)

• @JimFergusonUK 

• FOLLOW THE MONEY: DOCTORS WERE PAID TO PUSH THE SHOT! A doctor just exposed the truth: “Blue Cross Blue Shield offered huge bonuses to vax doctors — if I’d jabbed all 6,000 of my COVID patients, I would’ve made $1.5 MILLION.” That’s not medicine. That’s a business model. THEY DIDN’T FOLLOW SCIENCE — THEY FOLLOWED THE PAYCHECK. WHAT THIS MEANS:

• @WallStreetMav 

• BREAKING: India will put 12% tariff on steel to limit cheap imports from China.

• @ScottPresler

• VERY CONCERNING!! Since 2020, ~1,000,000 people have left California for other states. In California, EVERY voter receives a mail-in ballot for EVERY election. However, in order to be removed from the voter rolls, you have to mail a Voter Registration Cancellation form to your former county elections office. How many of those 1,000,000 people do you think mailed in a cancellation form? So, hundreds of thousands of voters — that no longer live in California — could still be receiving ballots at their old addresses. (in a state that allows for ballot harvesting).

• @GuntherEagleman

• They rounded up pastors for showing up at church on Easter over a virus with a 99.8% survival rate. Never forget. (pic)

• @catturd2

• The judicial coup must end.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 +2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 69.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.94 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 50.0 +.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.40% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.9 -2.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.70%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.45%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.