Monday, August 18, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:
  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge 
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • Palo Alto Networks double beat. CEO: "We exited FY 25 with an acceleration in RPO, and surpassed the $10B revenue run-rate milestone, positioning ourselves well for sustained growth ahead." $PANW: +6.3% AH.
  • @MarioNawful
  • YOUR ONLINE FLIRT MIGHT BE A TRAFFICKED SLAVE IN A CHINESE SCAM CAMP. Thought the person who sent you a funny message on WhatsApp is an evil crook munching popcorn while lying about their gender? Try a trafficking victim locked in a prison-style compound in Cambodia, Laos, or Myanmar, forced by Chinese crime syndicates to run romance scams or get beaten, starved, or electrocuted. (video)
  • @rawsalerts
  • @TruthFairy131
  • @BillAckman
  • @HistoryNutOTD
  • @DrTrozzi
  • @MAGAVoice
  • @HustleBitch_
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 81.2 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.33% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.33%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Energy/Utility Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.14%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.1 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.5 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 -1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.81 +.23:  Growth Rate +12.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.24 +.72: Growth Rate +24.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.50 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 -.4
  • US Yield Curve 56.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% -.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.1% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 47.7%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear -.7% 2) Utilities -.5% 3) Gold & Silver -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • METC, ARLP, OS, ARCT, AR, QFIN, USAR, NNE and TNXP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MDT 2) IBB 3) IQ 4) WULF 5) FSLR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NNE 2) EMPD 3) LZGI 4) RSKD 5) REPL
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XLF 3) XLC 4) XLI 5) LABU

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +4.6% 2) Electrification +3.5% 3) Oil Service +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DAY, ZEPP, AAOI, KYIV, APLD, DUOL, NMAX, IBTA, CCOI, NXT, FSLR, RIOT, BTDR, RUN, CYD, SERV, DNA, OSCR, TTD, NEGG, CHA, SBET, HSAI, IREN, AMN, SYNA, SONO, CELH, ENPH, SEDG, RCL, WIX, ZK, LQDA, JBS, NVO, LULU, VEON, VKTX, NOVT, TBPH, TEM, SUPV, RIGL, UNH, MUX, UNH, PENG and PGY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FIVE 2) SWK 3) JBS 4) OS 5) PRMW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DAY 2) PPCB 3) VTAK 4) FSLR 5) RUN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SILJ 2) XBI 3) VGT 4) XOP 5) SOXX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AS)/.02
  • (HD)/4.72
  • (MDT)/1.23 
  • (VIK)/.99 
After the Close: 
  • (JKHY)/1.58
  • (KEYS)/1.67
  • (LZB)/.53
  • (SQM)/.51
  • (TOL)/3.60
  • (ZTO)/2.86 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1296K versus 1321K in June.
  • Building Permits for July is estimated to fall to 1385K versus 1393K in June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly crude oil stock report, America Taiwan Tech Forum, (MCHP) annual meeting and the Needham Virtual Semi/Semi-Cap Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -21.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.3 +2.0
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 55.2% of Issues Advancing, 42.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .86 +6.2% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$40.8M
  • 45 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 54.0% (+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.6 +1.1
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4% -.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 250.9 +.24%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.2 +.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.2 -39.3%
  • Vix 15.2 +.5%
  • Total Put/Call .81 +9.5