Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US-Global Tariff Uncertainty, Rising Long-Term Rates, Declining Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Alt Energy/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 +12.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .75 +2.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 78.5 -2.2% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.87 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.0 +.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.11 +1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.7 +16.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 -6.0

• Total Put/Call .91 -59.9%

• NYSE Arms .57 -25.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$246.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 +1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 373.7 +2.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 211.0 +5.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.3 +2.7%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 133.0 +3.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 88.0 +2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.6 +.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 147.0 +1.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 73.8 -.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.27 -.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.0 basis points -.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -20.25 basis points -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.0 -.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 583.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 51.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.40 -.21%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.28% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.13% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.2 +5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.2 +6.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.1 +2.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(489 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 289.95 +.40:  Growth Rate +10.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +27.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.27 +.92: Growth Rate +16.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.5 -1.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .57 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.02 +45.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4+.1
• US Yield Curve 61.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -50.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.4% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 -2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 48.3% (+3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 48.5%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +128 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/financial/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large0-Cap Growth -1.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -2.3% 2) Gambling -2.3% 3) Alt Energy -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SOUN, ZK, SPRY, MNDY, YPF, TGT, TCOM, NICE, CION, BBAR, CHA, AFRM, PAM, PD, CEPU, S, GGAL, WK, AMBA, MESO, GEV, TGS, STZ, KHC, KC, RGTI, MANU, NEGG, CBRL, ASO, NVMI, KYIV, LCID, CRWV, DNA, AIRO and TECX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AGNC 2) INFY 3) ZS 4) ALTS 5) KHC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SOC 2) STZ 3) NUTX 4) IRBT 5) SLQT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLF 3) XRT 4) XLI 5) ITA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.1% 2) Biotech +1.4% 3) Shipping +.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MLYS, CYTK, UTHR, IONS, MUX, ARWR, JOYY, DK, IREN, DRD, HMY, ONC, ULTA, QXO, DOOO, INSM, UPB, PTCT, BEKE, AGI, PRCH, LI, CROX, VERA, GMAB, BIIB, AU, LQDA, SKE, GFI and SBH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2) MANU 3) VLY 4) CYTK 5) ETHZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MLYS 2) IONS 3) CYTK 4) KWM 5) HUM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) FDN 2) SMH 3) EUAD 4) IYW 5) PSI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CPB)/.56
• (DLTR)/.42
• (M)/.19
• (REVG)/.63 
• (PLAY)/.94
• (VRNT)/.26 

After the Close: 

• (AEO)/.20
• (ASAN)/.05
• (AI)/-.21
• (CRDO)/.36
• (DSGX)/.43
• (GTLB)/.16
• (HPE)/.42
• (PD)/.20
• (CRM)/2.78 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for July is estimated to fall to 7392K versus 7437K in June. 
• Factory Orders for July is estimated to fall -1.3% versus a -4.8% decline in June.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for July. 

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book report release.

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 16.1M versus 16.41M in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Cit TMT Conference, Goldman Retailing Conference, Keefe Bruyette Woods Insurance Conference and the UBS Business Services/Leisure/Transport Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 -6.7
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 26.8% of Issues Advancing, 70.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .68 -10.5% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$250.1M
  
• 62 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 59.1% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.6 -2.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 78.3 -2.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.5 -.7%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 158.47 -.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 60.0 (GREED) -4.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.9 -5.5%
  
• Vix 18.6 +15.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 -58.6%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• President Donald Trump said India has offered to cut its tariff rates following the US imposition last week of 50% levies as punishment for its purchases of Russian oil.
• Germany’s highest-ranking general says a sprawling military exercise among NATO allies in the Baltic region will likely overlap with a planned Russian drill as he warned Moscow not to escalate regional tension.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall as the White House looks to highlight key issues for midterm campaign voters. 
• Educators across America are bringing AI chatbots into their lesson plans. Will it help kids learn or is it just another doomed ed-tech fad?
• Walmart is bulking up its paid membership plan with a new entertainment option.
• US stocks can rise another 20% by the end of 2026, driven by the excitement around artificial intelligence, according to strategists at Evercore ISI.
• Microsoft Now at the Center of Big Tech’s Worker Protests.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @Zerohedge  

• "I Want The Answer": Trump Demands Pfizer Prove mRNA Jabs Work.
• Goldman Sees Global Shipbuilding Entering Multi-Stage Upcycle Through 2032.
• This is JB Pritzker’s trans cousin who funds child transgender clinics. It is pure evil to mutilate children. Prison for life. (pic)
• NEW: Ilhan Omar's net worth skyrocketed to upwards of $30 million in 2024, an increase of at least 3,500% in just one year. Her husband's venture capital firm was no more than $1k in 2023. Now, she says it's worth up to $25 million. It specializes in structuring "legislation."
• Goldman: "NFP is the week’s main event. We are at 60k, below consensus. There is a seasonal August bias to miss: August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias in initial prints over the last decade". 
• AI & The New Frontier Of Torts: ChatGPT Faces Claims Of Suicide, Defamation, & Even Murder.
• Ukraine War To Drag On With No End In Sight: Germany's Merz.
• CTAs maxed out again at 100th percentile and would have to sell >$70bn over the next month in a down-tape.
• Why 'Eating The Rich' Undermines Everyone's Prosperity. 
• The Progressive Pantheon Of Pathetic Heroes.
• "Another Record High": The Best And Worst Performing Assets Of August. (graph) 
• Gorka Steamrolls CNN's Keilar: Exposes Trans-Shooter Epidemic And Anti-Christian Ideology In Fiery Clash.
• AI & 'The End Of Labor' Day.
• Israel And The West Set The Stage For Next Round Of Warfare On Iran.
• 'Systematic Demand Has Dried Up': Goldman's Flows Gurus Expect September To Be "Challenging".
• Trump Declares D.C. "Crime-Free Zone," Urges Leftist Mayors To Join Him On Restoring Law & Order.
• Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Speakers Galore.
• Starmer starting to crack. *STARMER: I GET THE FRUSTRATION AND ANGER OF VOTERS. *STARMER: MIGRATION IS SERIOUS ISSUE; I WANT ASYLUM HOTELS EMPTY. *STARMER: WANT TO GO FURTHER AND FASTER IN TACKLING IMMIGRATION.
• Analysts increasing EPS estimates Q3 for S&P500. That is unusual (and bullish)
  .
• Opioids More Likely To Kill Than Car Crashes Or Suicide
  .
• The Harsh Truth About Life In Canada Today
  . 
   
• DHS's New Election Integrity Czar Has Receipts On Pennsylvania's 2020 Fraud
  . 
• The Pentagon Cracks Down On Big Tech's Coziness With China
  . 

• @CNBC

• Asia markets set to open mixed as investors assess SCO summit amid new tariff concerns.
• A historic change in how Americans buy groceries is underway as SNAP benefit cuts begin. 
• An Iowa nuclear plant is the next contender to restart, spurred by AI data center demand.

• @FoxNews  

• BREAKING: President Trump says he will award former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani the Presidential Medal of Freedom. The announcement comes after Giuliani was seriously injured in a car crash over the weekend.

• @chrisbrunet

• EXCLUSIVE: I obtained Lisa Cook’s 85-page Tenure Packet via FOIA. Download link below. It’s heavily redacted, but here are the big takeaways:

• @ElectionWiz

• BREAKING: The family of Robert Mueller, who furthered the Russia Collusion hoax, says he CANNOT testify to Congress due to Parkinson’s.

• @WallStreetApes

• This is a never before seen video of the Pacific Palisades fire. It was given to Spencer Pratt by a resident today who forgot he had it and posted. - Gavin Newsom let Los Angeles burn. - Laundered fire victims aid money to his NGO. - He’s working to steal their land. It’s insane.
• Elon Musk has been making points today that there’s a group of people trying to destroy Western Countries. Tucker Carlson came to the same exact conclusion. “They’re not really globalists,” they’re only targeting Western Countries. “They're not really globalists are they? Because they're not doing this to China and Africa and the Middle East. They're not saying those nations need to invite a lot of people from different parts of the world only one side it's anti western”.

• @jjauthor

• President Trump urges us to tag @LeaderJohnThune and demand the Senate pass: A. Watermarked paper ballots. B. Same-day voting. C. Voter photo ID. D. Proof of citizenship. E. Election Day holiday. F. Hand counting. G. All of the above. Now or we are doomed. Pass it on - until it is law! Why do democrats hate an honest election? No more mail in ballots!!

• @newstart_2024

• Thinking that country can run on breezes is worse than delusional. A two-megawatt windmill is made up of 260 tons of steel that required 300 tons of iron ore and 170 tons of coking coal, all mined, transported and produced by hydrocarbons. They each consume 10'000 liters (more than 2600 gallons) of crude oil based lubricants per year. When outdated, the wind turbines are being buried deep in forests, out of public view, due to the high costs associated with recycling them. A windmill could spin until it falls apart and it will NEVER, EVER generate as much energy as it was used in building it. (video)

• @Inevitablewest

• Holy sh!t… 350,000+ Australian patriots conquered six major cities today demanding an end to mass migration. The silent majority is done being silent. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• Labour in the UK equates to Democrats in the U.S. America needs a clean sweep of many of our politicians as well. Anyone not standing up for children must feel the wrath of the American people at election time. The UK is gone over to the dark side, let’s not allow America to do the same.

• @TaraBull808

• What are your thoughts on this?

• @KobeissiLetter

• The AI Revolution is so massive that electricity prices are moving in a literal straight line higher. Energy is the new limiting factor to AI growth.

• @TheChiefNerd

• President Trump calls on Pfizer and other COVID drug makers to release their data.

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY CRAP: A scandal is erupting in MICHIGAN after state Republican lawmakers found that 4,277 phantom jobs were created and "funded" by Democrat leaders - "You guys realize what a scandal this is?" $5 BILLION in fraud or abuse found. "People should be prosecuted for taking money that was appropriated to higher employees and using that money for another purpose entirely. There are programs in there that DONT EVEN EXIST, and they're funding them!" (video)

• @toobaffled

• Pfizer’s Experimental Hendra mRNA Vaccine Sparks Wave of Sudden, Agonizing Horse Deaths. Horse owners across Australia are raising the alarm after a disturbing pattern of sudden deaths in animals recently injected with the Hendra vaccine. Despite repeated assurances from regulators and drug giant Zoetis—the former animal health arm of Pfizer—the equine community says the truth can no longer be ignored. Healthy horses are collapsing and dying in agony within days of the shot.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 43.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.85 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.90 -.1% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.46 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.2 -.04%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.25% +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -1.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%.
• S&P 500 futures +.04%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly  higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.