Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -1.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .40 -54.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 78.6 -1.6% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 +.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.0 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.10 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.1 +2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 141.0 +1.0

• Total Put/Call .83 -9.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.46 +108.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$220.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.3 +.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 370.1 -.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 200.0 -11.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.6 -2.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 132.6 -.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 87.0 -1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.2 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 146.8 -.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 73.4 -.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.31 +.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.0 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -24.5 basis points -4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.5 +.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 580.0 -3.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 50.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.43 +.06%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.21% -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.12% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.1 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -5.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -5.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.4 +2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(491 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.03 +.08:  Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 22.2 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +27.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.37 +.10: Growth Rate +16.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .53 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.31 -71.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.1
• US Yield Curve 59.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.8% -2.6 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.0% (+5.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.2% 2) Oil Service -1.7% 3) Medical Equipment -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MRVL, PD, BUR, MAGN, TOST, UTHR, SFD, GPK, RVTY, ISRG, KEX, DLTR, BRKR and NEGG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LCID 2) ZS 3) CVE 4) M 5) OWL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ERAS 2) XNCR 3) ANRO 4) SLQT 5) PSX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) EUAD 2) XRT 3) FDN 4) XLU 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electrification +3.3% 2) Computer Hardware +1.5% 3) Internet +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• M, OPRA, SMR, BEAM, SEPN, GOOG, ZEPP, COGT, REVG, RIVN, SPHR, BMNR, HMY, CLDX, IMCR, MNTN, RCUS, IONS, DRD, ARWR, TGTX, CPB, HQY, PTCT, GMAB, CLS, FRO, WDC, LQDA, SGHC, FLR, PSIX, UEC, BBWI, TSLA, GRDN, UPWK, RBLX, GENI, PAHC, TNK, KYMR, STVN, UNM and AAPL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ZS 2) LCID 3) AXL 4) ULCC 5) HLF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) M 2) REVG 3) RGS 4) SPHR 5) HQY

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLP 3) XLI 4) XLY 5) KRE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FLWS)/-.51
• (CIEN)/.53
• (GIII)/.09
• (SCVL)/.58
• (TTC)/1.22 

After the Close: 

• (AGX)/1.64
• (AVGO)/1.66
• (CPRT)/.36
• (DOCU)/.85
• (GWRE)/.63
• (LULU)/2.86
• (SWBI)/-.10
• (PATH)/.08
• (ZUMZ)/-.11
• (RH)/3.18 

Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Aug. 

8:15 am EST

• ADP Employment Change for Aug. is estimated at +68K versus +104K in July.

8:30 am EST

• Final 2Q Non-Farm Productivity/Unit Labor Cost readings.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 230K versus 229K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1960K versus 1954K prior.
• The Trade Balance for July is estimated at -$77.9B versus -$60.2B in June. 

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US Composite PMI readings for Aug.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Services Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 50.1 in July.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for Aug. is estimated to fall to 69.6 versus 69.9 in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, RFK Jr. testimony to Senate Committee, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, Citi TMT Conference, UBS Nuclear Energy Seminar, Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, BofA Gaming/Lodging Conference, Jefferies Fintech Conference, Jefferies Industrial Conference, Truist Tech Symposium and the Gabelli Aerospace/Defense Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.3 +.8
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 48.7% of Issues Advancing, 48.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.44 +105.7% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$188.8M
  
• 77 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 59.0% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.4 +.8

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 79.3 -.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.3 +.09%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.0 +1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (Neutral from GREED) -7.0
• 1-Day Vix 7.9 -31.4%
  
• Vix 16.5 -3.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -9.8%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The naval force sent to the southern Caribbean will reinforce the pressure on drug cartels and a belligerent Venezuelan regime that benefits from them, says @stavridisj.
  
• China’s wealthy are once again pouring money into “snowball” derivatives for juicier returns, a year after the regulator curbed the product that was blamed for exacerbating a stock rout
  .
• President Trump said his administration would ask the Supreme Court for an expedited ruling in hopes of overturning a federal court decision that many of his tariffs were illegally imposed.
• The White House said that dozens of job categories — including waiters, cosmetologists, golf caddies, event DJs and dancers — won’t have to pay taxes on the tips they earn. 
• Gold held a six-day rally that pushed prices to an all-time high on Tuesday, as the prospect of US interest-rate cuts boosted the metal’s appeal and traders sought safety following a selloff in equity and bond markets.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge  

• Ukraine Urges China To Pressure Putin As War Overshadows SCO Summit.
• Netanyahu Mulls Annexation In West Bank As Retribution For Europe's Growing Anti-Israel Stance. 
• Illinois Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton is directing illegal aliens in her state to go to a website that provides them resources to evade immigration enforcement and get a lawyer. but only after they've voted? (video)
• Schools Make Kids Crazy.
• Woke Rats Jump Ship As Trump Puts CDC Under A Microscope.
• I will be hosting a Press Conference at 10am EDT this Thursday Morning on New Information in the Lisa Cook Mortgage Fraud Matter in front of The Elijah Barrett Prettyman US Courthouse in Washington, DC. All media are welcome. 
• US Strike On Drug-Boat That Departed Venezuela Leaves 11 Dead, Video Released. 
• Kennedy Derangement Syndrome Running Rampant.
• *BESSENT TO START FED CHAIR INTERVIEWS ON FRIDAY: WSJ.
• Trump To Deploy National Guard To Chicago, Baltimore; Maryland Gov. Caught "Half-Naked" On Clooney's Yacht.
• Unqualified Secret Service Snipers Protected President, Inspector General Finds
  .
• Dystopian Rollout Of Digital IDs & CBDCs Is Happening.
• Bullion, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Bid As 'Back To School' Batters Bonds & Big-Tech Stocks. 

• @CNBC

• Asia markets poised to open lower, tracking losses on Wall Street.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Apple shares rise after judge rules Google can continue preload deals in antitrust case.
• Google gets to keep Chrome but is barred from exclusive search deals, judge rules.
• Waymo starts testing in Denver, Seattle in bid to expand robotaxi service across U.S
  .

• @GatewayPundit

• SEND IN THE US MARSHALS: Maricopa County Attempting to Illegally Delete Records Ahead of Potential DOJ Investigations.

• @LauraLoomer 

• NEW: ATTENTION TO EVERYONE WHO HAS EVER TAKEN TYLENOL OR KNOWS SOMEONE WITH AUTISM. Link Between Prenatal Tylenol @tylenol Use and Autism Rates Under Scrutiny as @HHSGov Prepares Major September Announcement On Autism Interventions.

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices surged 62 basis points in August, to a record 11.7%. This is now a full percentage point above the post-2008 peak of 10.7%. Since December 2022, the CMBS delinquency rate has risen by over 10 percentage points. Additionally, the delinquency rate for multifamily CMBS jumped 71 basis points, to 6.86%, the highest in 9 years. As a result, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate rose 6 basis points, to 7.29%, the highest in at least 4 years. The commercial real estate downturn is now unfolding faster than in 2008. (graph)

• @elonmusk

• London is worse than MSM is portraying it to be. Mass immigration is destroying Europe. Instead of arresting the violent criminals, the police in Britain are told to arrest people who tell the truth on social media … (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: Illinois Gov. Pritzker assures his residents crime is just a fact of life and they must deal with it. REPORTER: You're hearing people say 54 SH0T, 7 dead, they're gonna say, Chicago's not safe. PRITZKER: Look, big cities have crime...Let's just pay attention to what President Trump is doing. (video)
• Gavin is petrified. Understand why? (map)

• @AndrewKerrNC

• NEW: Ilhan Omar's net worth skyrocketed to upwards of $30 million in 2024, an increase of at least 3,500% in just one year. Her husband's venture capital firm was no more than $1k in 2023. Now, she says it's worth up to $25 million. It specializes in structuring "legislation."

• @Humanspective

• Robert F Kennedy: "It's a trick". One of the "little tricks" Big Pharma worked together with the government on. Put any negative effects people had from mRNA 'vaccines' into the "unvaccinated" group. This hid vaccine injuries, deaths and gave the appearance the unvaccinated were getting sick and dying more. "The offical data do not not count you as vaccinated until 2 weeks after the second shot" "The deaths that happened during that first 6 weeks are attributed to unvaccinated people [so] it's a trick, it's statistical trick" They do this "little trick" on other traditional vaccines as well. (video)

• @RealMaxMaximus

• Jimmy Dore absolutely NAILED it on this one! The guy's basically become the left's truth-teller when it comes to exposing these billionaire grifters masquerading as saviors. Gates is the ultimate hypocrite - flies around in private jets lecturing us peasants about our carbon footprint while simultaneously positioning himself to profit off every "solution" he pushes. COVID vaccines? He had massive investments. Now it's fake meat and synthetic butter, and surprise! He's invested in Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, and every other lab-grown franken-food company out there. Think about the pattern here - create the crisis narrative (cows are killing the planet!), fund the studies that "prove" your point, then conveniently have the only solution available for purchase from... your own investment portfolio. It's not philanthropy, it's the world's most expensive pump-and-dump scheme disguised as do-goodery.

• @newstart_2024

• Peter Navarro Says Fauci & Pfizer Lied to Trump About the COVID Vaccines. The biggest lie wasn't just to the public. It was to the President. Fauci and Pfizer knowingly misled Trump about the vaccine's capabilities and risks. He trusted them, and they sold out America. (video)

• @harryfisherEMTP

• Mr. President, I am writing to you as a paramedic who has worked day after day in the field, responding to emergencies where people’s lives hang in the balance. I don’t sit behind a desk and I don’t deal in theories, I deal in blood, broken bodies, and human reality. That reality is why I cannot ignore what I personally witnessed, a 12‑year‑old girl who suffered a stroke shortly after receiving her Covid shot. Pfizer.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.25 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 -.10%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.39 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.2 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.28% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 -1.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.64%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.