Tuesday, May 05, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • $AMD CEO: "We delivered an outstanding first quarter, driven by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure, with Data Center now the primary driver of our revenue and earnings growth".
  • Arista CEO: "Arista is off to a strong start in Q1 2026". $ANET: -5% AH.
  • Super Micro CEO: "Supermicro's transformation into a total datacenter infrastructure provider is accelerating. Our margin recovery and the rapid growth of our DCBBS business demonstrate that our business remains robust." $SMCI: +16% AH. 
  • @WallStEngine
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 -2.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%. 
  • Crude Oil 100.60/bbl. -1.7% 
  • Gold 4,643.3 USD/t oz. +1.7%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.07%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.49 +.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 117.8 -.3%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.42% n/a.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.75% n/a. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -1.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.65%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.55%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.9 -1.9%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.7 -.9% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +3.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .01 +1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.0 -1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.2 -2.0%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 66.5 -.6% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 +.2
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.3 +1.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.9 +2.0
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.7 -1.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.0 +3.5
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(353 of 500 reporting) +26.8% -1.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 350.26 +.67:  Growth Rate +26.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.30% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% +.2 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 844.24 +2.58: Growth Rate +113.2% +.6 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.1 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .93 -3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 47.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.35 +1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47. euros/megawatt-hour -2.4% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 16.5% +.1 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% +20.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.22 -12.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 87.9% (-4.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 84.5%(-3.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear -1.4% 2) Digital Health -1.1% 3) Healthcare Providers -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ATEC, HSBC, NHI, BSM, XNDU, BALL, BWXT, APTV, SPIR, CRSP, FLY, CRCL, ADUS, POOL, ICHR, SONO, PLTR, KBR, UAMY, IAC, PAY, AEIS, AHCO, PYPL, AHCO, DUOL, FISV, FMS, PCOR, HII, ADEA, INSP, SHOP, OSIS, ADTN, DFIN, IPGP, BRBR and WGS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IEF 2) CYTK 3) WMB 4) CPNG 5) SHOP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PDYN 2) OCUL 3) WLK 4) GOSS 5) ODD
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLV 3) XLU 4) VOX 5) XRT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +4.8% 2) Computer Hardware +3.8% 3) Airlines +3.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • EVER, STRL, DOCN, VRDN, FTRE, IART, EWTX, ALMU, CYTK, CYRX, CIFR, LIND, VCX, ULS, PLOW, HNRG, IIPR, WAT, SNDK, POWL, UCTT, BLSH, MU, CCOI, WOLF, OPLN, NVTS, JBTM, ECG, AKAM, ROK, AMSC, PRIM, CECO, GPK, PENG, BUD, LTH, PINS, ALAB, GILT, HSHP, AESI, THR, LWLG, NET, QCOM, VPG, DD, LGN, VVX, UMC, AMKR, IREN, IESC, ERO, DY, CLYM, UFPT, SHIP, ORN, MXL, LRCX, USAR, MANE, MATX, WDC, RVTY, SIMO, APLD, TCMD, APLD, VAC, LEGN, DORM, HOG, BAND, HIMX, QNST, RGEN, LOMA, CTRI, LINC, PATK, CTOS, ATOM, SGRY, RYTM, YOU, ABVX, TDG, HNGE, OWL, WYFI, CMBT, VSH, GNK, ADM, MSA, CRML, NPO, STM, EQPT, SBLK, KN, ALKS, BG, STX, GXO, SEDG, BEKE, CEVA, CRBG, AMD, MYRG, CMI and ONTO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DGXX 2) CTRI 3) CYTK 4) BWA 5) VIXM 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) STRL 2) INTC 3) WAT 4) EVER 5) CYRX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) XLE 3) DRAM 4) FDN 5) GRID
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (GOLF)/1.40
  • (BLMN).57
  • (CRI)/.13
  • (COR)/4.82
  • (CLH)/1.15
  • (CVS)/2.18
  • (ELAN)/.35
  • (FLEX)/.87
  • (GPN)/2.78
  • (CART)/.57
  • (PODD)/1.20
  • (ITT)/1.72
  • (JCI)/1.28
  • (KHC)/.50
  • (LFUS)/2.85
  • (MAR)/2.56
  • (NRG)/1.83
  • (OC)/.98
  • (SEDG)/-.27
  • (UBER)/.69
  • (UBS)/.78
  • (UTHR)/7.00
  • (DIS)/1.49
  • (BWA)/1.17 
After the Close: 
  • (ALB)/1.19
  • (APA)/1.11
  • (ARM)/.58
  • (AXON)/1.60
  • (CF)/2.63
  • (CRUS)/1.76
  • (CGNX)/.25
  • (COHR)/1.40
  • (CW)/3.30
  • (DASH)/.36
  • (FSLY)/.08
  • (FLUT)/1.09
  • (FTNT)/.62
  • (GT)/-.42
  • (HRB)/5.77
  • (KTOS)/.13
  • (KLIC)/.67
  • (MET)/2.27
  • (SEZL)/1.20
  • (SITM)/1.16
  • (SNAP)/-.07
  • (RGR)/.34
  • (SYM)/.12
  • (TKO)/1.11
  • (WBD)/-.11
  • (WHR)/.38
  • (ZG)/.46 
Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

  • The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to rise to 120K versus 62K in March. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,427,000 barrels versus a -6,234,000 decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,310,750 barrels versus a -6,075,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,412,250 barrels versus a -4,494,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.76% versus a +.5% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • (CVNA) 5-for-1 
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, (MRNA) annual meeting, (BC) annual meeting, (PM) annual meeting, (PEP) annual meeting, (GD) annual meeting, (BRO) annual meeting, (AA) annual meeting, (ALV) annual meeting, (MGM) annual meeting, (STLD) annual meeting, (PSA) annual meeting, (TAP) annual meeting, (SYK) annual meeting, (GLW) annual meeting, (FLR) annual meeting and the AWS Financial Service Symposium could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +3.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.4 +2.0
  • 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
  • 68.2% of Issues Advancing, 29.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.40 +57.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$209.9M
  • 156 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
  • 55.6% (+3.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.1 +1.8
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 25.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 35.0% -7.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 31.0% -4.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 117.7 -.1%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 480.75 -4.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.6 +.6%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 147.8 +.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.9 -30.3%
  • Vix 17.5 -4.2%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -7.1%