Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • Cisco Q3 FY26 results: — Revenue: +12% to $15.8B. — Operating income: +24% to $4.0B. — Net income: +35% to $3.4B. — EPS: +37% to $0.85. — Operating cash flow: -7% to $3.8B. — RPO: +4% to $43.5B. — Returned $2.9B to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. $CSCO: +12% AH.
  • @WallStEngine
  • @GenFlynn
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @NicHulscher
  • @BennyJohnson
  • @TonySeruga
  • @RepLuna
  • @disclosetv
  • @Polymarket
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @nicksortor
  • @C_3C_3
  • @X22Report
  • @DawnsMission
  • Nature just dropped ANOTHER epic counter to the tick invasion! After guinea fowl eating 1,000 ticks a day, check this out — ticks literally freak out and run from these essential oils: Tea Tree. Neem. Oregano. Black Seed. The little bloodsuckers won’t even touch them. Perfect natural armor for your yard, pets, and family while tick season ramps up. (video)
  • @Tablesalt13
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • 5 RINOS JUST SABOTAGED REDISTRICTING IN SOUTH CAROLINA! These 5 traitors voted with Democrats to BLOCK a 7-0 Republican map and protect Jim Clyburn’s seat: Sean Bennett. Chip Campsen. Tom Davis. Greg Hembree. Shane Massey (called Democrats “vibrant”). 29-17 FAIL. We have the supermajority.
  • @newstart_2024
  • “All the porn sites are controlled by governments and intel agencies… everything you watch is being stored and will be used against you if necessary.” - Tucker Carlson. He dropped this on Bryce Crawford’s podcast, warning that our most private online habits are being tracked and could be weaponized later. He even mentioned the camera on your phone. Tucker’s blunt message: “Wise it up, boys.” (video)
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 -.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%. 
  • Crude Oil 101.0/bbl. -.02% 
  • Gold 4,696.0 USD/t oz. -.23%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.68 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.44 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.0 +.3%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.46% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.86% +2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 -.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.77%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.45%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, De-Escalating US/China Trade Tensions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 -1.0%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.8 -.2% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.13 +1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.9 -1.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.6 -.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 62.5 -5.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.1
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.1 -.9
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.6 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +25.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 354.29 +.23:  Growth Rate +27.8% unch., P/E 21.0 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.42% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 856.75 +.76: Growth Rate +116.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.4 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve 49.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 188.8 +1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.7 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.9% -.5 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 98.5% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 90.0%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services -2.5% 2) Nuclear -2.0% 3) Regional Banks -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AEP, YETI, EQX, ERO, CAMT, NRG, SHOP, IMXI, INR, JBS, FCN, DLO, DLO, GLBE, RVLV, AMTM, TLN, CELH, QUBT, METC, TRMD, CEG, BRSL, IMTX, GLOB, GAIN, DLX, KTOS, YSS, VSTS, DOCS, BIRK, DDT, CAI, REZI, EYE, GILT and WIX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IYR 2) XOP 3) SOLS 4) TSEM 5) KDK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) WIX 2) EYE 3) REZI 4) DT 5) MIST
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XRT 3) XLU 4) XLV 5) IAI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) AI Innovation +4.0% 2) Semis +3.2% 3) Alt Energy +2.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MEI, VELO, VNET, RVI, OUST, AAOI, VPG, PSIX, TSEM, NBIS, WOLF, KC, LWLG, MBLY, CMPS, PENG, VSH, AOSL, F, VOYG, HSAI, ALMU, KRNT, QUIK, LUNR, BRUN, FN, RIGL, NVTS, ON, ENPH, NOK, GSIT, NXT, SYNA, AIP, AEVA, STM, CRNC, ST, WBTN, CDRE, FTK, MRVL, ETOR, JD, BABA, TARS, HIMX, AMBQ, BIDU, GMTL, ADTN, SMTC, RMIX, GDS, AEHR, SEDG, GTX, EQPT, NEXA, EQPT, RKLB, ARM, ARQT, AKAM, BBIO, LINC, AMPH, AMBA, LI, BWA, SHAZ, JOBY, OMDA, MIRM, CRCL, BEKE, GLW, SPIR, SION, MTSI, UMAC, SPIR, RYTM, KYIV, PRM, JKS, XNDU, MNSO, CBLL, POET, FLEX, CSIQ, ONON, QFIN, KRMN, BILI, CSIQ, FUTU, MU, FCEL, ARW, AGL, TTMI, GEN, HUM, GEN, MT, TSLA, ACMR, KYTX, PDD, ZBRA, UNIT, MOS, EH, ELVA, ARMK and SOLS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SFM 2) FIVN 3) INVZ 4) VNET 5) XLV 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VNET 2) NBIS 3) TSEM 4) F 5) NXT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) DRAM 2) SOXX 3) IXN 4) XLF 5) IGV
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (GOOS)/.29
  • (CSIQ)/-.82
  • (VIK)/-.11
  • (WWW)/.22
  • (YETI)/.18
  • (DOX)/1.77
  • (BBWI)/.29
  • (DDS)/10.37 
After the Close: 
  • (AMAT)/2.68
  • (BOOT)/1.42
  • (FIG)/.06
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.8% gain in March.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in March.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.6% gain in March.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 205K versus 200K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1780K versus 1766K prior.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.7% gain in March.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for April is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.9% gain in March.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and gas MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in March. 

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for March is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.4% gain in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Trump/Xi Summit, Fed's Hammack speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, BMO Farm to Market Chemicals Conference, Deutsche Bank Solar/Clean Tech Conference, (CVS) annual meeting, (RGEN) annual meeting, (MS) annual meeting, (XYL) annual meeting, (MLM) annual meeting, (F) annual meeting, (UNP) annual meeting, (KMB) annual meeting, (WH) annual meeting, (MO) annual meeting, (JBLU) annual meeting, (LVS) annual meeting, (NUE) annual meeting, (TSCO) annual meeting, (LEA) annual meeting, (CBOE) annual meeting, (FLS) annual meeting, (CLF) annual meeting, (CME) annual meeting, (SCHW) investor day, (ORLY) annual meeting, (KBR) annual meeting, (LNG) annual meeting, (ON) annual meeting and the BofA Industrials/Transports/Airlines Key Leaders Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +6.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.1 +.4
  • 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
  • 33.4% of Issues Advancing, 64.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .70 +1.5%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$105.4M
  • 80 New 52-Week Highs, 93 New Lows
  • 53.3% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 +1.2
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 24.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 33.0% -3.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 28.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.6 +.9%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% +10.0 percentage points
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 461.0 +1.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.0 +.8%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 155.9 +.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.3 -4.9%
  • Vix 18.1 +.4%
  • Total Put/Call .70 -17.7%