Sunday, October 04, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge  
  • @MarioNawful
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @ABridgen
  • @ReturnOfKappy
  • @Barchart
  • @LaraLogan
  • @DonaldePMitchell
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.05 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%.
  • Crude Oil 90.04/bbl. -1.2%
  • Gold 4,187.50 USD/t oz. +.6% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.09 +.08%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.60 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 137.70 +.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 5.25% -2.0 basis points. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.24% +4.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% Net Long heading into the week.

Saturday, October 03, 2026

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (IBM), (IONQ), (NVDA), (VEEV), (KO), (KDP), (GME) (MU) and (NFLX).
  • Had bearish commentary on (META) and (CDRE). 
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @RadioGenoa
  • @Polymarket
  • @TonySeruga
  • @Cointelegraph
  • @gatewaypundit
  • @TheLongInvest
  • As a pilot for 20 years I have questions: - where are the cabin crew here? - where are the oxygen masks that automatically drop during a rapid emergency descent? - how did the Capt manage to open the door while being stabbed? - Omani pilots were not allowed to fly to Israel, why was he allowed?...
  • @SimonDixonTwitt
  • @Dividendology
  • @nogps1
OpenVAERS:   
SKirsch.com:

Friday, October 02, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 7,722.7 -.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 51,176.9 -1.3%
  • NASDAQ 27,190.9 +.5%
  • Russell 2000 2,832. -.2%
  • NYSE FANG+ 19,211.6 -.7%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 305.4 -1.7%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 38.8 -1.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 76,132.5 -.2%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 5,117.6 +.7%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,452.6 -1.0%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 899.4 -1.9%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 274.5 +.4% 
  • NYSE Technology 10,261.5 +1.6%
  • Transports 20,009.8 +2.2%
  • Utilities 1,018.0 +.8%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 135.6 -5.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 67.92 -.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 264.8 -.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 138.2 +.1%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 609,303 -.6%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.0 -9.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,244 -94
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -16.7 -7.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 141,106 +3.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,841,811 -5.8%
  • Total Put/Call .77 +2.7%
  • OEX Put/Call .81 unch.
  • Equity Put/Call .71 +14.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.16 +13.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 137.0 -.2%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -18.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -29.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.3 +3.8%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .70 -8.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.5 +13.0%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.21 +3.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.69 +.8%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 16,607.5 +4.0%
  • CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 42.0 -7.0
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.891 Trillion n/a
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.783 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 34.6 +5.8%
  • AAII % Bears 46.5 -3.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) -5.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 410.1 -2.0%
  • Crude Oil 91.5/bbl. -1.0%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 331.6 +4.0%
  • Natural Gas 3.04 -5.4%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 78.2 USD/Megawatt -13.4% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 76.24 euros/megawatt-hour +7.9%
  • Heating Oil 455.0 -5.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 149.3 (1,000/metric ton) +5.6%
  • Gold 4,144.2 -3.3%
  • Silver 60.5 -5.9%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 173.4 -4.3%
  • Copper 658.5 -2.8%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 401.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.7 USD/Metric Tonne -3.4%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 19,025.0 USD/metric tonne -8.1%
  • Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index .98(price per million tokens) +1.0% 
  • inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 49.6 -.8%  
  • CME Lumber 526.50 -1.2%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,565.2 -.6%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 352.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
  • US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 441.0 USD/Short Ton -2.5%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.7% -140.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.4 -.1 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.9 -3.0%
  • Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 181.7 +20.0% 
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 75.0 +15.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 20.0% -70.0 percentage points
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 160.6 -16.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 -.3
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +178.0% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.46 +n/a:  Growth Rate +23.9% +n/a percentage point, P/E 19.0 -n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.30% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,079.47 +n/a: Growth Rate +60.8% +n/a percentage point, P/E 17.8 -n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.7 -8.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 74.5 -8.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.60 +6.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.5-3.75%, 77.3%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 22.7%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.0-4.25% on 10/28
  • US Dollar Index 101.9 +.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,920.9 -.2%
  • Bitcoin/USD 84,079 -.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 203.7 -.9%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.10 -.25%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 44.75 +14.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 5.28% +12.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.20% +4.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.696 Trillion -.1%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.871 Billion +8.3%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.84 +13.1%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 201.0 +5.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 +23.0 basis points
  • France Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 85.6 +46.3% 
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.4 +29.5%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.8 +9.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 131.4 +3.6%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 59.3 -.2%
  • Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.8 +.7%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.0 +2.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.6 -1.3%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.4 -.6%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.5% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.6% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% -38.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.60% +10.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +25.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +4.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 24.75 -2.75 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 -5.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.2 +3.3% 
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.8 -1.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 155.0 +49.8%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 447.5 +5.6% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 222.0 +4.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 71.9 +9.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 167.4 +11.0%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 124.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 563.0 +12.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .43 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.7% +30.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,406.7B -3.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 200,000 -1.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.7 -2.8%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.25% +16.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 213,600 -6.0%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +8.20% unch.
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +19.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $150.8M +31.1%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.40/gallon -.09/gallon 
  • Nationwide Diesel $6.37/gallon -.17/gallon 
  • Baltic Dry Index 3,140.0 -8.4%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,433.9/40 ft Box -.8%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,923.9 +1.4%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 500.0 -4.8%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 103.5 +.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 301,610 +.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,723,082 +38.8% 
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.8 +1.0 point
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% +1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -1.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Lithography/Photonics +7.7%
  • Networking +4.3%
  • Semis +3.9%
  • Cyber Security +3.8%
  • Energy +2.9%
Lagging Sectors
  • Oil Service -2.9%
  • Pharma -3.6%
  • Airlines -5.1%
  • Gold & Silver -5.8%
  • Gambling -7.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)
  • XRPN, MXL, SYNA, WOLF, WNC, VSH, RXO, AZTA, VECO, IBRX, ELMT, ALGM, HPE, SPCX, AAOI, QMCO, QGEN, STM, VIAV, SMTC, LW, NTAP, AVT, ARW, LSCC, CRDO, ON, TECK, HLIO, MATW, USFD, AVLN, ARHS, CLMT and PDO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)
  • BBSI, HQH, RIVN, NKE, GRND, DBVT, MMYT, NKTR, AXGN, GDS, TH, WDC, STX and IART
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change



Stocks Higher into Afternoon on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Attractive Valuations, Technical Buying, Tech/Space Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,410 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -244 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +11 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +143 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

  • The ISM Services Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 55.4 in Aug.
  • ISM Services Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to rise to 73.0 versus 72.6 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Conference Board Employment Trends Index for Sept., (MRVL) investor day and the (CGNX) non-deal road show could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST