Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.9% 2) Road & Rail -1.6% 3) Banks -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KNSA, CMPR, KEM, CNXM, GHL, INVA, TSCO, HRB, MUSA, DWDP, MEOH, CNX, PYPL and ARCB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NVAX 2) PSTG 3) AET 4) EWY 5) VXXB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GHL 2) XPO 3) VALE 4) TYME 5) IMMU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +2.9% 2) Tobacco +2.9% 3) Internet +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VCLT, FLWS, IGV, MLNX, NOW, EGOV, KIDS, IIVI, CHTR, RACE, LBRDK, ASND, FB, CBPO, ABC, ALGT, CREE, GE, PHG, AGS, GFF, ECH, DQ, MSB, SCWX, ZS, SEND, DLB, ALGN, CWT, SKY, WWD and SE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CAH 2) AVEO 3) NVAX 4) COUP 5) NOW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NOW 2) UPS 3) CHTR 4) AMD 5) GE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 72.0% of Issues Advancing, 25.5% Declining
• 78 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 34.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.6%
• Vix 16.8 -4.6%
• Total Put/Call .75 -24.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +34.0%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 -4.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 55.0 -3.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.67 +.16%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.29%.

• S&P 500 futures +.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.52%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (MO)/.95

• (ABC)/1.51

• (APTV)/1.21

• (BAX)/.73

• (CELG)/2.31

• (COP[)/1.02

• (ETN)/1.43

• (GE)/.24

• (IP)/1.59

• (MA)/1.52

• (NOC)/4.45

• (PH)/2.42

• (RTN)/2.87

• (SHW)/3.55

• (TSCO)/1.09

• (UPS)/1.91

• (VLO)/1.11

• (YRCW)/.39

After the Close:

• (AFL)/.94

• (AMZN)/5.51

• (CY)/.33

• (DECK)/5.29

• (MCK)/3.16

• (POST)/.97

• (SKYW)/1.07

• (SYMC)/.39

• (YUMC)/.08

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for January.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 4Q is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.8% gain in 3Q.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 199K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1721K versus 1713K prior.

9:45 am EST

• The Chicago Purchasing Manager report for January is estimated to fall to 61.5 versus 63.8 in Dec. 
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for November are estimated to rise to 567K versus 544K in October.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China PMI report, Eurozone GDP report, Japan Unemployment Rate report and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on More Dovish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -7.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.11 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.97 +.45%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.91 +.65%

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +28.6%
  

• Total Put/Call .89 +1.14%

• NYSE Arms .82 -11.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.74 -3.87%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 694.0 -1.34%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.52 -1.45%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 241.0 -2.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.95 -.84%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 176.22 -2.43%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 155.67 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 36.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 -1.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.58 +.57%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% unch.

• Yield Curve 17.75 +3.5 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 81.15 USD/Metric Tonne -1.61%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.60 +2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -82.3 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.3 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84+7.0 basis points
• 1.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 10.3% chance at June 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +242 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +141 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/industrial/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -.8% 2) Homebuilding -.7% 3) I-Banking -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TUP, SLAB, EGHT, HA, JNPR, COHR, UMBF, NATI, CDK, GNTX, TROW, AMGN, T, ILMN, CIEN and WHR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UUP 2) AET 3) AXL 4) DELL 5) SC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TUP 2) ACIU 3) CIEN 4) COHR 5) WHR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume