Wednesday, May 19, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,102.54 +1.01%
NASDAQ 1,929.61 +1.68%


Leading Sectors
Nanotechnology +3.74%
Networking +3.63%
Semis +3.46%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -.17%
Hospitals -.19%
HMO's -.43%

Other
Crude Oil 41.15 +1.50%
Natural Gas 6.34 +2.94%
Gold 382.80 +1.84%
Base Metals 102.67 +1.97%
U.S. Dollar 90.56 -.76%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.78% +.96%
VIX 17.86 -7.5%
Put/Call .66 -29.03%
NYSE Arms .44 -44.44%

Market Movers
HPQ +5.6% after beating 2Q revenue estimates and boosting 2nd half revenue forecast by $1B.
KROL +29.9% after announcing that MMC would acquire it for $1.9B in cash.
RIMM +6.59% on Legg Mason upgrade.
AMD +7.16% after announcing it established AMD China, enabling it to conduct an increased scope of business in the country.
SKYE +22.35% after winning U.S. FDA approval for their DepoDur pain treatment.
AMI +17.74% after it agreed to be acquired by CAH for about $1.62B. in cash.
DRIV +9.91% after positive comments at Piper Jaffray conference.
CCDC -19.71% after lowering 04 forecast.
ADSK -5.0% after beating 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q forecast.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
PHRM raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. PETM rated Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $32. UVN raised to Overweight at Moran Stanley, target $36. HPQ raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC, target $30. ERICY rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $31. RIMM rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $124. CNO rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $24. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MERQ, UST and PEP. Goldman thinks EMS names are attractive at 18x CY05 estimates, favorites are SLR and CLS. Citi SmithBarney upgraded DNET to Buy, target $28. Citi rated MDT Buy, target $57. Citi rated GDT Sell, target $57. Citi reiterated Buy on BJ, target $30. Citi reiterated Buy on JCP, target $46. Citi reiterated Buy on DIS, target $32.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on strong earnings reports and strength in Asia. PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian, who manages more emerging-market debt than any other fund manager, told CNBC that credit fundamentals are improving in emerging markets. OPEC recognizes that near-record crude oil prices may hurt importing nations and can increase supply if needed, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services plans to speed up investigations of marketing practices by medical-device makers and may bring more charges of fraud and abuse, the Boston Globe reported. More than 100 companies are planning to submit offers for a five-year contract to provide phone and Internet connections for New York City agencies, in the first open-bid process, the New York Daily News reported. Pharmaceutical companies, seeking to cut costs and find new medicines as patents expire, are merging at a record pace this year, making the $430 billion global drug industry the most active acquisition market behind banking, Bloomberg said. Merrill Lynch picked Morningstar and BNY Jaywalk to provide research to its clients as part of the company's settlement with regulators over biased stock advice, Bloomberg reported. Manmohan Singh will form a Congress-led government to run India for the next five years after Sonia Gandhi, who led the party to a surprise election victory, said she wouldn't become prime minister, Bloomberg said. An index of U.S. mortgage applications fell 12% last week as home purchases slowed for the first time in more than a month and loan refinancing dropped to the lowest level since early January, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a very good day today as my Chinese cyclical and tech longs are rising substantially. Rising interest rates and energy prices are keeping U.S. stocks from rising even more. Volume and breadth are pretty good today and I would like to see stocks rally into the close as shorts cover and investors sense they have missed the bottom. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 125% net long.

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