Monday, May 03, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ACDO/.42
ATN/.21
ASF/.12
ESPD/.18
IACI/.16
NBIX/-.36
PCLN/.08

Splits
None of Note.

Economic Data
Construction Spending for March estimated +.5% versus -.1% in February.
ISM Manufacturing for April estimated at 62.7 versus 62.5 prior month.
ISM Prices Paid for April estimated at 85.0 versus 86.0 in March.
Total Vehicles Sales for April estimated at 17.0M versus 16.7M in March.
Domestic Vehicle Sales for April estimated at 13.5M versus 13.3M prior month.

Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on JNJ, WFMI, BBBY, BEAS, COGN, CSR and mixed on HAL and NMG/A. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on GE, NFX, MOT, LNCR, PETM, mixed on HAL and negative on DIS. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on MANT, MLNM, FLML, NVEC, CBT and mixed on MRVL. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on COL, WAG, CCU, CLX, DVN, OSI and FNM. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on BBH, CSCO, SIVB, BAC, GE, MSFT and CCE. Barron's had a positive column on VOD and negative columns on ZLC and TASR.

Weekend News
Economist.com has a positive article on California's economy, saying it is poised for a rebound. Google is being sued by a unit of rival Yahoo! over the way it sells advertising, the Daily Telegraph reported. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said on Sunday any UN official found guilty of corruption in the burgeoning Iraqi oil-for-food scandal would be dismissed and be held liable for legal action, Agence France-Presse reported. Tyco won a $1B contract to build a computerized network of radio transmitters across New York state designed to correct lapses among emergency response agencies, the New York Times reported. China is facing "severe" pressure to meet demand for oil products because of rapid consumption growth and production-capacity constraints, Xinhua News reported. The UK is set to send as many as 4,000 extra soldiers to secure Najaf in the biggest expansion of British forces in Iraq since the beginning of the war, the Sunday Telegraph said. The UK government has bought ani-radiation drugs worth $88.9M to cover half the country's population in the event of a dirty bomb. Chinese Vice Premier Huang Ju urged officials to curb money supply and suspend or halt work on industrial projects that aren't in line with government policy to ensure long-term stable economic growth, China Central TV reported. Wall Street firms are increasing their hiring in NYC as profits rebound, Crain's New York Business reported. Pfizer plans to buy more biotechnology companies to finance new drug discoveries, the Financial Times said. Photographs allegedly showing UK troops abusing a hooded Iraqi prisoner are probably fakes, the London-based Times said. Warren Buffett said he increased his bet against the U.S. dollar, Bloomberg reported. Paul Tudor Jones, founder of the $9.4B hedge fund firm Tudor Investment Corp., is increasing his investments in China, Bloomberg reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -1.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%.
NASDAQ indicated +.36%.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into the week. While the market could rally at any time from its oversold state, I would like to see sentiment indicators such as the Bullish %, VIX, ARMS and Put/Call ratio show less investor complacency. Interest rates will likely rise further during the week in anticipation of Friday's employment report. U.S. stocks should open higher in the morning on some positive developments in Iraq, strong economic data and no significant terrorist acts over the weekend. I will monitor the strength of the open before deciding whether or not to shift market exposure.

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