Thursday, May 13, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,097.96 +.06%
NASDAQ 1,928.69 +.16%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.10%
Disk Drives +2.10%
Homebuilders +1.15%

Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -1.13%
Gaming -1.31%
Iron/Steel -1.52%

Other
Crude Oil 40.57 -.49%
Natural Gas 6.44 +.55%
Gold 375.50 -.58%
Base Metals 101.58 -1.03%
U.S. Dollar 92.02 +.80%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.84% +.66%
VIX 18.44 +1.65%
Put/Call .85 -24.09%
NYSE Arms .86 -11.34%

Market Movers
MAMA +25.0% after reported better-than-expected 1Q results.
PGTV +24.2% after a federal court dismissed DTV's claim against it.
CNJ -12.7% after it said plans to be acquired by Moulin Intl. could fall through.
DOX -13.3% after disappointing guidance at analyst meeting.
PNRA -10.54% after meeting 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q guidance.

Economic Data
Producer Price Index for April rose .7% versus expectations if a .3% rise and a .5% rise in March.
PPI Ex Food & Energy for April rose .2%, meeting expectations and the same as in March.
Advance Retail Sales for April fell .5% versus an expected fall of .2% and a 2.0% rise in March.
Retail Sales Less Autos for April fell .1% versus expectations of a .2% fall and a 1.8% rise in March.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 331K versus expectations of 325K and 318K prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2974K versus 2900K estimates and 2921K prior.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on GE, DIS, KO and WMT. GS upgraded UST to Outperform. Citi SmithBarney said to Buy HD and LOW ahead of quarterly reports. Citi reiterated Buy on DIS, target $32. Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com, has a negative column on MO. AVID added to focus list at JP Morgan, target $57. NYT raised to Outperform at JP Morgan. SNDK rated Sector Outperform at CIBC, target $35. LEXR rated Sector Underperform at CIBC. ACI raised to Buy at Legg Mason, target $36. IMCL rated Buy at Oppenheimer, target $84. TMWD rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $7.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mostly higher mid-day as rising technology and cyclical shares are more than offsetting falling consumer cyclicals. Boston's average house price rose to $558,055 during the first quarter, an increase of 8.6% from the year-earlier period and up 8.7% from the fourth quarter, the Boston Herald reported. The North American Electric Reliability Council, an industry group that monitors the U.S. power grid, said there should be no "uncontrolled blackouts" this summer, the NY Times reported. Bahrain and the U.S. will hold trade talks this month that may lead to a free-trade accord in two months, the first such U.S. agreement with a Persian Gulf state, the Bahrain news agency reported. The Greek militant group Revolutionary Struggle claimed responsibility for a triple bomb attack in Athens last week, saying business people and rich tourists who may attend the Olympic Games in August are "undesirable." Viacom's CBS may capture the biggest gain in U.S. advertising sales for the 04-05 tv season, Bloomberg reported. Nextel has won the goodwill of police and fire chiefs throughout the U.S. by offering to spend $1.36B to ensure its cell-phone towers stop interfering with emergency signals, Bloomberg said. Wal-Mart and Target said first quarter profit rose as shoppers spent tax refunds on clothing, Bloomberg reported. However, Wal-Mart said high gas prices may hurt sales later this year. U.S. Treasury notes are falling after the PPI rose more than forecast in April, leading to more inflation worries, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio having a very good day as my biotech, tech and security longs are rising and retail shorts are falling. I have not traded and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. I expect the major U.S. indices to finish neutral to higher today as bonds stabilize and oil inches lower.

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