Wednesday, May 12, 2004

Wednesday Close

S&P 500 1,097.28 +.17%
NASDAQ 1,929.59 -.30%


Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.16%
Banks +1.32%
HMO's +1.12%

Lagging Sectors
Fashion -1.36%
Tobacco -1.56%
Semis -1.75%

Other
Crude Oil 40.69 -.20%
Natural Gas 6.38 -.31%
Gold 377.70 unch.
Base Metals 102.64 +1.28%
U.S. Dollar 91.28 -.41%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.81% +1.37%
VIX 18.14 -2.32%
Put/Call 1.12 -9.34%
NYSE Arms .97 -7.62%

After-hours Movers
MAMA +17.26% on strong 1Q earnings.
NCRX -5.84% after missing 2Q estimates and CFO resignation.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs rated MER Overweight and BSC Underweight. GS reiterated Outperform on RE. A decline in repossessed manufactured-housing loans since 02 suggests prices on mobile homes and related securities may begin to rise in late 04 or early next year, said UBS analyst Thomas Zimmerman.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed Wednesday as a vicious afternoon rally led investors to speculate that the market's recent correction had run its course. After the close, Enron said it will partially settle a lawsuit filed on behalf of current and former workers and their retirement plan for $85 million, the Houston Chronicle reported. Disney's second-quarter profit rose 71% as sales increased at its theme parks and cable networks, Bloomberg reported. Biogen Idec said Nabil Hanna, its executive v.p. for research resigned after the company conducted an internal investigation, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio fell slightly today and I bought back many longs that I sold earlier in the day, thus leaving the Portfolio with 125% net long market exposure. Trading action today had many markings of a key reversal day. The QQQs(Nasdaq 100 tracking stock) finished the day higher, after a significant intra-day decline, on volume that was 61% higher than its 15-day average. At their nadir, the Qs were down 12.1% from their highs in January and trading below their 200-day moving average. Barton Biggs' bullish comments on CNBC and the ARMs index hitting an extreme reading of 3.56, both occurring around 2pm est., seemed to provide the catalyst for the vicious rally. I believe a short-term bottom is in place now and I am leaning towards the belief that an intermediate-low was made today. The fundamentals of the market are excellent, while investor psychology has been the problem. I would like to see another strong rally on good volume within the next few days to confirm the move of the last 2 days. I expect this will occur by next Monday at the latest. If investor psychology has shifted, I would also expect to see much more focus on the many positives of this market and less attention to the few negatives.

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