Wednesday, May 19, 2004

Wednesday Close

S&P 500 1,088.68 -.26%
NASDAQ 1,898.17 +.02%


Leading Sectors
Nanotechnology +2.20%
Fashion +1.87%
Networking +1.78%

Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -1.51%
Biotech -1.58%
Homebuilders -2.59%

Other
Crude Oil 41.59 +.22%
Natural Gas 6.48 +.42%
Gold 382.50 -.13%
Base Metals 102.67 +1.97%
U.S. Dollar 90.53 -.79%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.78% +1.05%
VIX 18.93 -2.07%
Put/Call .80 -13.98%
NYSE Arms 1.08 +33.33%

After-hours Movers
INTU -9.0% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q and 05 forecast.
SNPS +6.2% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
BBOX -11.86% after missing 4Q estimates.
CMOS +5.28% after significantly beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q forecast substantially.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs said key takeaway from day one of Steel Conference is that the very strong steel cycle is sustainable on strong demand, no signs of a slowing Chinese economy, stability in scrap prices, tight supply for carbon steel sheet, no price weakness and stainless demand/pricing improving. Goldman reiterated Outperform on GDT, FDC and ARG. Goldman said IBM has 22% upside from here.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mildly lower Wednesday as climbing interest rates and energy prices led to afternoon profit-taking. After the close, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said his inaugural speech today will outline a positive approach to improving relations with China and will seek to repair U.S. ties strained by his pro-independence politics, the South China Morning Post reported. The U.S. government should continue filling the strategic petroleum reserve instead of releasing oil from it to lower prices temporarily, T. Boone Pickens told CNBC. American Airlines, United Airlines and Northwest Airlines raised fares in some markets after Continental Airlines boosted prices as much as $20 one way on higher jet fuel costs, Bloomberg reported. SBC Communications is facing the largest U.S. strike since 1997 after the union negotiating labor contract for 100,000 workers rebuffed the telephone company's latest offer and called a four-day walkout, Bloomberg said. Crude oil rose and gasoline futures surged today after the Energy Department said U.S. stockpiles of the motor fuel increased less than expected, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio had a good day today as a few of my tech and Chinese ADR longs rose substantially. However, performance was better earlier in the day. I took profits in a few longs and put on a few new shorts in the homebuilding and retail sectors in the afternoon. The Portfolio is now 75% net long. It was a very disappointing day for the Bulls as investors seem completed fixated on oil prices to the detriment of all other fundamentals. While I think a short-term bottom was made in most stocks last week, it appears that the market will need a few more weeks of consolidation before a real intermediate-term advance begins.

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