Thursday, August 11, 2005

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day as Oil Hits Another Record and Long-term Rates Fall

Indices
S&P 500 1,228.48 -.05%
DJIA 10,598.55 +.04%
NASDAQ 2,158.37 +.03%
Russell 2000 660.61 +.07%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,241.75 +.01%
S&P Barra Growth 589.25 +.01%
S&P Barra Value 635.56 -.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 588.50 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 753.91 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Technology 499.99 +.15%
Transports 3,744.99 +.04%
Utilities 394.40 +.23%
Put/Call .91 -9.0%
NYSE Arms .96 -17.02%
Volatility(VIX) 12.71 +2.67%
ISE Sentiment 127.00 -32.45%
US Dollar 87.07 -.62%
CRB 321.97 +.63%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.55 +.92%
Unleaded Gasoline 193.70 +2.15%
Natural Gas 9.23 +1.75%
Heating Oil 188.70 +2.51%
Gold 450.60 +1.95%
Base Metals 127.54 +.13%
Copper 164.70 +.76%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.33% -1.37%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.84%
Restaurants +1.32%
Wireless +.94%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -.66%
Gaming -.83%
Airlines -1.16%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Oil Tanker shorts. I added to a few existing longs and shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the rise in oil and fall in long-term rates. The AAII % Bulls fell to 39.74% this week from 47.83% the prior week; this reading is now at slightly below average levels. Likewise, the % Bears rose to 28.85% from 26.09% the prior week; this is back to average levels. These readings should help contain any near-term pullback related to oil or rates. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on lower long-term rates.

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