Thursday, August 25, 2005

Stocks Slightly Higher Mid-day on Light Volume

Indices
S&P 500 1,210.75 +.10%
DJIA 10,435.51 unch.
NASDAQ 2,131.92 +.14%
Russell 2000 656.67 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,087.81 +.11%
S&P Barra Growth 579.79 +.11%
S&P Barra Value 626.78 +.10%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 579.23 +.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 732.16 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Technology 492.86 -.01%
Transports 3,687.41 +.58%
Utilities 400.72 +.83%
Put/Call .96 +5.49%
NYSE Arms 1.05 -22.63%
Volatility(VIX) 14.08 -.64%
ISE Sentiment 198.00 +65.0%
US Dollar 87.70 -24.24%
CRB 317.71 -.78%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.10 -.33%
Unleaded Gasoline 194.00 +.74%
Natural Gas 9.52 -4.65%
Heating Oil 185.40 -.61%
Gold 442.50 +.05%
Base Metals 129.04 -.72%
Copper 160.60 -1.11%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.16% -.09%

Leading Sectors
Steel +1.93%
Gold & Silver +1.20%
Airlines +.76%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -.36%
Telecom -.37%
Oil Tankers -1.47%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Oil Tanker Shorts are offsetting losses in my Medical longs. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are gaining and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral given another decline in long-term rates and bounce in energy prices from morning lows. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 5.77% this week from 5.80% the prior week. This is down from 6.04% on April 1 and only 56 basis points away from record lows set in June 2003. The Homebuilding Index is down .35% today, underperforming the market, even as the yield on the 10-year T-note is falling to 4.16%. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on continuing worries over energy prices.

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