Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day as Oil Reverses Lower

Indices
S&P 500 1,230.60 +.61%
DJIA 10,607.07 +.67%
NASDAQ 2,174.69 +.47%
Russell 2000 660.74 +.17%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,247.94 +.50%
S&P Barra Growth 591.02 +.64%
S&P Barra Value 635.18 +.58%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.91 +.60%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 754.67 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 505.61 +.81%
Transports 3,739.16 +.30%
Utilities 391.10 +.73%
Put/Call .95 +13.10%
NYSE Arms .59 -27.0%
Volatility(VIX) 12.32 -6.74%
ISE Sentiment 179.00 +20.95%
US Dollar 88.03 +.13%
CRB 315.32 -.92%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.55 -.53%
Unleaded Gasoline 183.60 -1.13%
Natural Gas 8.63 -.56%
Heating Oil 179.50 +.31%
Gold 439.60 -.16%
Base Metals 125.26 -1.55%
Copper 160.70 -2.40%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.42% +.14%

Leading Sectors
Internet +2.40%
Semis +1.44%
Networking +1.06%

Lagging Sectors
Airlines -.72%
Oil Service -.93%
Oil Tankers -1.06%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Medical, Semiconductor and Biotech longs. I took profits in a few of my IWM and QQQQ shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the lower-than-expected rise in Unit Labor Costs. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 4% year over year last week vs. a 4.4% rise the prior week. The last time weekly sales were 4.0% or greater for six consecutive weeks was May/June 2004. This week's gain is also up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 14th week in a row the index has exceeded 3%. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as higher rates offset lower energy prices.

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