Tuesday, August 16, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Worries Over Consumer Spending

Indices
S&P 500 1,224.99 -.72%
DJIA 10,554.45 -.75%
NASDAQ 2,148.41 -.86%
Russell 2000 658.26 -1.11%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,207.76 -.72%
S&P Barra Growth 586.53 -.79%
S&P Barra Value 634.28 -.63%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.55 -.74%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 745.82 -1.56%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.10 -.87%
Transports 3,729.87 -.85%
Utilities 394.17 -.75%
Put/Call .98 +48.48%
NYSE Arms 1.55 +73.66%
Volatility(VIX) 13.06 +6.53%
ISE Sentiment 154.00 -31.25%
US Dollar 87.54 +.25%
CRB 320.43 +.48%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.35 +.12%
Unleaded Gasoline 198.60 +1.22%
Natural Gas 9.76 +2.31%
Heating Oil 187.10 +.10%
Gold 451.00 +.76%
Base Metals 131.62 +.73%
Copper 171.20 +.26%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.21% -1.58%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.69%
Gold & Silver +.28%
Hospitals +.12%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -1.74%
Retail -2.34%
Computer Hardware -3.04%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Computer, Medical and Retail longs. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is negative, considering the decline in long-term rates and mostly positive economic data. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.80% year over year last week vs. a 4.0% rise the prior week. The string of 4%+ weekly gains ended at 6. However, this week's gain is still up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 15th week in a row the index has exceeded 3%. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on worries over consumer spending.

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