Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Alexander Yakovlev, a UN procurement officer during the Iraq/UN oil-for-food program, pleaded guilty today to fraud and money laundering.
- The proposed combination of Adidas-Salomon AG and Reebok International will help the companies open more stores and compete against Nike for leadership in China, the world’s fastest-growing athletic gear market.
- Japan Prime Minister Koizumi plans a purge of his party, which may cause the biggest split in the ruling group in 12 years, to eliminate opposition to his planned sale of government-controlled savings bank Japan Post, the centerpiece of his economic overhaul.
- Crude oil futures traded above $64/bbl. In NY after Valero Energy, the third-largest US refiner, said a fire at its McKee plant in Texas will cut gasoline production for five days.
- US lawmakers are renewing their efforts to impose sanctions on Chinese imports, arguing that China’s currency revaluation last month – Its first in a decade – doesn’t go far enough.
- NASA’s Discovery will have opportunities to land at three locations across the US today, a day after cloudy, rainy weather in Florida forced a delay in the space shuttle’s homecoming.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EBAY, COH, DELL and HNT.
- Reiterated Underperform on SMP.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.07%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AIG/1.21
AES/.15
AQNT/.10
BBI/-.10
CVC/-.11
CSCO/.24
CCU/.40
DISH/.44
HANS/.90
MAY/.31
PNRA/.33
RL/.36
SNDA/.38
SLAB/.11
DIS/.38

Upcoming Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Preliminary 2Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise 2.0% versus a 2.9% increase in 1Q.
- Preliminary 2Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise 2.9% versus a 3.3% gain in 1Q.


10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for June are estimated to rise .4% versus a .1% increase in May.


2:15 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3.50%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher on gains in energy shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to decline later in the afternoon after the FOMC announcement. I expect the Fed to raise rates 25 basis points, maintain the word “measured” with respect to the pace of future hikes and to make other more hawkish statements. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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