Friday, August 12, 2005

Stocks Sharply Lower Mid-day on Dell Report and Disappointing Economic Data

Indices
S&P 500 1,228.12 -.78%
DJIA 10,583.41 -.96%
NASDAQ 2,148.40 -1.19%
Russell 2000 656.93 -1.42%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,228.65 -.81%
S&P Barra Growth 588.47 -.86%
S&P Barra Value 635.15 -.73%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.97 -.71%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 754.28 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.39 -1.06%
Transports 3,735.46 -.73%
Utilities 394.97 -.56%
Put/Call .93 +1.09%
NYSE Arms 1.36 +95.28%
Volatility(VIX) 12.95 +4.27%
ISE Sentiment 157.00 +30.83%
US Dollar 86.99 +.13%
CRB 322.81 +.09%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.70 +1.37%
Unleaded Gasoline 199.60 +2.37%
Natural Gas 9.55 +2.68%
Heating Oil 191.50 +.87%
Gold 451.70 +.18%
Base Metals 130.20 +2.09%
Copper 167.60 +1.76%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.25% -1.31%

Leading Sectors
Broadcasting -.13%
Retail -.19%
HMOs -.20%

Lagging Sectors
Gaming -1.74%
Semis -1.90%
Restaurants -2.40%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Oil Tanker and Computer shorts. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is lower and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is negative considering the fall in long-term rates. Apple Computer (AAPL), one of my long positions, is breaking out today on decent volume with the rest of tech getting smacked. It is a beneficiary of Dell’s woes. The stock is approaching highs of $45.44 reached on Feb. 17, 2005. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on lower long-term rates.

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