Jobless Claims Remain Low, Leading Indicators Rise Slightly

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 316K versus estimates of 310K and 310K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2593K versus 2575K the prior week.
- Leading Indicators for July rose .1% versus estimates of a .1% gain and an upwardly revised 1.2% in June.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits rose to 316,000 last week, low enough to suggest companies are adding workers as the economy accelerates, Bloomberg said. Jobless claims are averaging 18,000 few this year than last year. The insured employment rate, which tends to track the unemployment rate remained at 2.0%. Jobless claims between 310,000-320,000 are consistent with monthly non-farm payroll gains of 200,000-220,000. I would like to see the labor market cool a bit to prevent an acceleration of unit labor costs. I expect this to happen over the next couple of quarters.

The index of leading US economic indicators rose .1% in July after surging a month earlier, the first back-to-back gains this year, lifted by an improving job market and the housing boom, Bloomberg reported. The gain follows a revised 1.2% increase the prior month that was the largest jump in 15 months. I continue to believe US GDP growth will exceed 4.0% this quarter and 3.5% in the fourth quarter.