Retail Remains Healthy, Jobless Claims Stay Low, Inventories at Record Low Levels

- Advance Retail Sales for July rose 1.8% versus estimates of a 2.1% increase and a 1.7% gain in June.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for July rose .3% versus estimates of a .6% increase and an upwardly revised .9% gain in June.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose 308K versus estimates of 315K and 314K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2573K versus estimates of 2573K and 2581K prior.
- Business Inventories for June were unchanged versus estimates of a .1% increase and a .1% gain in May.

BOTTOM LINE: Strong sales of autos took away from sales of other goods. Sales at auto dealers and parts stores rose 6.7% in July, the most since October 2001. Near record heat last month also adversely effected fall clothing sales. Economists now expect consumer spending to rise 3.7% this quarter, .5 percentage points higher than their forecast last month, Bloomberg reported. I expect retail sales to remain healthy through year-end as incomes improve, rates remain relatively low and stock prices rise.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week as companies retained workers to meet rising demand, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving-average fell to 309,250, the best level since February. The insured unemployment rate, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held at 2.0%.

US business inventories were unchanged in June and sales increased, suggesting companies will boost production in coming months to keep up with demand, Bloomberg reported. The surge in sales left companies with enough goods to last a record-low 1.29 months. Rising production will boost GDP growth during the next couple of quarters.