Thursday, August 04, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices and Long-term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,236.43 -.69%
DJIA 10,619.40 -.73%
NASDAQ 2,193.46 -1.05%
Russell 2000 673.63 -1.42%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,345.71 -.75%
S&P Barra Growth 592.66 -.81%
S&P Barra Value 639.35 -.58%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.57 -.82%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 757.19 -.76%
Morgan Stanley Technology 505.93 -.57%
Transports 3,768.23 -.91%
Utilities 402.60 -.66%
Put/Call 1.12 +25.84%
NYSE Arms 1.11 +17.87%
Volatility(VIX) 12.47 +5.41%
ISE Sentiment 196.00 -27.94%
US Dollar 87.78 -.24%
CRB 316.54 +.39%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.85 +1.63%
Unleaded Gasoline 180.50 +1.93%
Natural Gas 8.57 +2.68%
Heating Oil 171.70 +1.72%
Gold 443.70 +.25%
Base Metals 127.82 -.40%
Copper 165.45 -1.02%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% +.46%

Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +3.69%
Hospitals +.83%
Oil Service +.82%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -2.15%
Retail -2.38%
Airlines -2.81%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Retail/Semiconductor longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I took profits in a few longs and added IWM and QQQQ short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is mildly negative considering recent gains and the rise in oil/rates. The AAII % Bulls fell to 47.83% this week from 57.52% the prior week; this is now back to average levels. Likewise, the % Bears rose to 26.09% from 17.65% the prior week; this is also back to average levels. These readings should help keep any consolidation modest. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering ahead of tomorrow’s employment report.

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