Tuesday, November 01, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Dell Warning and Fed Jitters

Indices
S&P 500 1,202.77 -.35%
DJIA 10,416.86 -.21%
NASDAQ 2,112.53 -.37%
Russell 2000 643.39 -.50%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,010.05 -.28%
S&P Barra Growth 574.51 -.50%
S&P Barra Value 624.45 -.16%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.76 -.41%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 716.82 -.15%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.89 -.10%
Transports 3,836.76 +.56%
Utilities 393.83 -1.81%
Put/Call .92 +4.55%
NYSE Arms 1.22 +32.49%
Volatility(VIX) 14.90 -2.74%
ISE Sentiment 179.00 -7.73%
US Dollar 90.07 unch.
CRB 315.79 -.16%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.45 -.52%
Unleaded Gasoline 160.00 +.62%
Natural Gas 11.93 -2.25%
Heating Oil 180.50 -1.09%
Gold 460.90 -1.29%
Base Metals 133.78 -.93%
Copper 181.60 +.28%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +.22%

Leading Sectors %
Steel +1.51%
Computer Services +1.48%
Broadcasting +.71%

Lagging Sectors
REITs -1.55%
Computer Hardware -1.86%
Utilities -1.99%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Medical Information System longs, Semi longs and Airline longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the better economic data and Dell earnings’ warning. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.8% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.5% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 26th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. While consumer sentiment remains depressed, spending remains healthy. There is very little evidence of any widespread consumer slowdown. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short covering and bargain hunting after the Fed hike.

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