Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
Friday, March 31, 2006
First Quarter Scoreboard
Indices
S&P 500 1,294.83 +4.21%
DJIA 11,109.32 +4.24%
NASDAQ 2,339.79 +6.38%
Russell 2000 765.14 +13.95%
DJ Wilshire 5000 13,121.56 +5.0%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,165.57 +5.0%
S&P Barra Growth 609.95 +2.25%
S&P Barra Value 681.66 +5.27%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 607.81 +2.76%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 813.87 +3.67%
Morgan Stanley Technology 548.10 +5.11%
Transports 4,568.00 +8.87%
Utilities 389.01 -3.97%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,408.00 +10.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 48.0 +77.58%
Put/Call .80 +5.3%
NYSE Arms 1.66 +.61%
Volatility(VIX) 11.39 -5.63%
ISE Sentiment 120.0 -26.38%
AAII % Bulls 37.21 -.24%
AAII % Bears 32.56 -10.82%
US Dollar 89.73 -1.58%
CRB 333.18 +.41%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.35 +2.31%
Unleaded Gasoline 187.47 -1.07%
Natural Gas 7.21 -29.1%
Heating Oil 185.60 +3.40%
Gold 583.50 +8.64%
Base Metals 177.22 +16.28%
Copper 245.90 +23.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.84% +10.25%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.35% +2.09%
Leading Sectors
Steel +40.81%
I-Banks +16.86%
Oil Service +14.39%
Networking +13.87%
REITs +13.98%
Lagging Sectors
Foods +2.34%
Hospitals +1.22%
Insurance -1.72%
Broadcasting -3.10%
Oil Tankers -6.38%
This Year’s Winners
This Year’s Losers
*3-Month % Change
S&P 500 1,294.83 +4.21%
DJIA 11,109.32 +4.24%
NASDAQ 2,339.79 +6.38%
Russell 2000 765.14 +13.95%
DJ Wilshire 5000 13,121.56 +5.0%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,165.57 +5.0%
S&P Barra Growth 609.95 +2.25%
S&P Barra Value 681.66 +5.27%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 607.81 +2.76%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 813.87 +3.67%
Morgan Stanley Technology 548.10 +5.11%
Transports 4,568.00 +8.87%
Utilities 389.01 -3.97%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,408.00 +10.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 48.0 +77.58%
Put/Call .80 +5.3%
NYSE Arms 1.66 +.61%
Volatility(VIX) 11.39 -5.63%
ISE Sentiment 120.0 -26.38%
AAII % Bulls 37.21 -.24%
AAII % Bears 32.56 -10.82%
US Dollar 89.73 -1.58%
CRB 333.18 +.41%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.35 +2.31%
Unleaded Gasoline 187.47 -1.07%
Natural Gas 7.21 -29.1%
Heating Oil 185.60 +3.40%
Gold 583.50 +8.64%
Base Metals 177.22 +16.28%
Copper 245.90 +23.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.84% +10.25%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.35% +2.09%
Leading Sectors
Steel +40.81%
I-Banks +16.86%
Oil Service +14.39%
Networking +13.87%
REITs +13.98%
Lagging Sectors
Foods +2.34%
Hospitals +1.22%
Insurance -1.72%
Broadcasting -3.10%
Oil Tankers -6.38%
This Year’s Winners
This Year’s Losers
*3-Month % Change
Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Lower Oil Prices Offset Quarter-end Profit-taking
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Retail longs, Networking longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index rose to 137.00 this week from 136.20 the prior week. This is off of cycle highs of 138.50 set the third week of January, but is still solidly higher from a reading of 132.00 during the last week of May 2005 and the long-term average of 128.90. This gauge of future economic activity is still forecasting healthy, but decelerating, U.S. growth. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as short-covering offsets profit-taking at quarter’s end.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Hard Rock Intl. is planning a $1 billion casino hotel in Atlantic City, New Jersey, the 13th in that city.
- General Motors(GM) may announce an agreement Monday to sell control of its finance unit to investors led by Cerberus Capital.
- Paris strikes and riots may scare away tourists during peak tourist season.
- Barton Biggs said US stocks may rise more than 20% this year, led by larger US technology companies such as Intel(INTC) and Cisco Systems(CSCO) as capital spending increases.
- Crude oil is falling the most in almost two weeks as concern eased over supply disruptions from Iran and as a damaged pipeline in Nigeria was repaired.
Wall Street Journal:
- China faces rising protectionist sentiment at home as growing foreign investment puts more Chinese companies under competitive pressure.
- Chinese telecom companies are resisting a government suggestion that domestic technology should be used to update wireless telephone systems over the next two years.
- China has become a world force in the use of solar power to provide hot water in homes.
- More US households are giving up traditional phones in favor of mobiles, citing Forrester Research.
- Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) flat-panel televisions incorporating Internet-ready technology will be sold at Best Buy(BBY) stores beginning next month.
NY Times:
- Federated Dept. Stores’(FD) Macy’s, Nordstrom(JWN) and QVC Inc. have begun selling clothes from women using a new universal size system, in an experiment to standardize how items fit.
- US African Americans are increasingly gaining access to, and becoming comfortable with, the Internet, signaling the closing of the so-called digital divide.
- Some personnel at ESPN disagree with the cable sports network’s decision to televise a reality series about San Francisco Giants outfielder Barry Bonds.
- Insurers that offer supplemental insurance for Medicare recipients are using the new prescription drug benefit to attract new customers.
Reuters:
- Comcast(CMCSK) and Time Warner(TWX) executives said they support Cablevision Systems’(CVC) plan to allow subscribers to record programs on the company’s computer servers.
Moscow Times:
- Russia’s Cabinet approved measures to draft more men into the military.
AFP:
- Iran will not use its crude oil supplies as a lever in a dispute with western countries over its nuclear program, citing Foreign Minister Mottaki.
- Hard Rock Intl. is planning a $1 billion casino hotel in Atlantic City, New Jersey, the 13th in that city.
- General Motors(GM) may announce an agreement Monday to sell control of its finance unit to investors led by Cerberus Capital.
- Paris strikes and riots may scare away tourists during peak tourist season.
- Barton Biggs said US stocks may rise more than 20% this year, led by larger US technology companies such as Intel(INTC) and Cisco Systems(CSCO) as capital spending increases.
- Crude oil is falling the most in almost two weeks as concern eased over supply disruptions from Iran and as a damaged pipeline in Nigeria was repaired.
Wall Street Journal:
- China faces rising protectionist sentiment at home as growing foreign investment puts more Chinese companies under competitive pressure.
- Chinese telecom companies are resisting a government suggestion that domestic technology should be used to update wireless telephone systems over the next two years.
- China has become a world force in the use of solar power to provide hot water in homes.
- More US households are giving up traditional phones in favor of mobiles, citing Forrester Research.
- Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) flat-panel televisions incorporating Internet-ready technology will be sold at Best Buy(BBY) stores beginning next month.
NY Times:
- Federated Dept. Stores’(FD) Macy’s, Nordstrom(JWN) and QVC Inc. have begun selling clothes from women using a new universal size system, in an experiment to standardize how items fit.
- US African Americans are increasingly gaining access to, and becoming comfortable with, the Internet, signaling the closing of the so-called digital divide.
- Some personnel at ESPN disagree with the cable sports network’s decision to televise a reality series about San Francisco Giants outfielder Barry Bonds.
- Insurers that offer supplemental insurance for Medicare recipients are using the new prescription drug benefit to attract new customers.
Reuters:
- Comcast(CMCSK) and Time Warner(TWX) executives said they support Cablevision Systems’(CVC) plan to allow subscribers to record programs on the company’s computer servers.
Moscow Times:
- Russia’s Cabinet approved measures to draft more men into the military.
AFP:
- Iran will not use its crude oil supplies as a lever in a dispute with western countries over its nuclear program, citing Foreign Minister Mottaki.
Personal Income Rises Almost Twice Inflation, Spending Slows, Inflation Decelerates, Manfuacturing Mixed
- Personal Income for February rose .3% versus estimates of a .4% increase and a .7% gain in January.
- Personal Spending for February rose .1% versus estimates of unchanged and a .8% rise in January.
- PCE Core for February rose .1% versus estimates of a .1% gain and a .2% rise in January.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March rose to 88.9 versus estimates of 86.9 and a prior reading of 86.7.
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for March rose to 60.4 versus estimates of 57.0 and a reading of 54.9 in February.
- Factory Orders for February rose .2% versus estimates of a 1.3% gain and a 3.9% decline in January.
- Personal Spending for February rose .1% versus estimates of unchanged and a .8% rise in January.
- PCE Core for February rose .1% versus estimates of a .1% gain and a .2% rise in January.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March rose to 88.9 versus estimates of 86.9 and a prior reading of 86.7.
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for March rose to 60.4 versus estimates of 57.0 and a reading of 54.9 in February.
- Factory Orders for February rose .2% versus estimates of a 1.3% gain and a 3.9% decline in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Consumer spending rose .1% in February, the smallest gain since August, as Americans took a breather after splurging a month earlier, Bloomberg said. The PCE core, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 1.8% y-o-y, the same as the prior month. Incomes rose 5.6% y-o-y, almost twice most inflation measures. I expect incomes to remain healthy, spending to moderate and inflation to decelerate mostly through year-end.
Confidence among US consumers increased more than expected in March as higher wages and job creation left people with more money in their pockets, Bloomberg reported. The expectations index rose to 76 from 74.5 last month. Confidence remains irrationally low given the current economic backdrop. I expect this measure to rise to cycle highs before year’s end.
Manufacturing in the Chicago area accelerated in March, Bloomberg reported. Inventories at record lows and increased business spending are spurring companies to boost production. The employment component of the index rose to 55.6 from 54.9 in February. The prices paid component fell to 71.1 from 71.6 the prior month. I expect manufacturing to slow to average levels, but still add to economic growth over the coming months.
US factory orders rose less than expected in February, held back by falling demand for machinery and less expensive oil, Bloomberg said. Orders, excluding transportation, fell 2.0%.
Thursday, March 30, 2006
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Asian central banks have “limited” room to add more euros to their reserves, after increasing the amount in that currency in the second half of last year, according to a Goldman Sachs research report.
- Citigroup(C) led Forbes magazine’s annual Global 2000 company list for a third consecutive year.
- Japan’s consumer prices rose in February for a fourth month, adding to prospects that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates from near zero this year.
- China “regrets” the decision by the European Union and US to file a joint complaint at the World Trade Organization against that country’s tariffs on imports of car parts.
Daily Telegraph:
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who 18 months ago said he would not serve a fourth term in office, will step down by the end of this year.
Financial Times:
- General Motors(GM) should “show resolve” and make a decision on the development of a mass-market hydrogen-powered car within 18 months to ensure it remains competitive, citing an interview with Larry Burns, the carmaker’s vice president in charge of strategic planning.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
JPMorgan:
- Raised NOVL to Buy, target $11.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (GY)/-.15
- (GPN)/.34
Upcoming Splits
- (DBRN) 2-for-1
- (NX) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for February is estimated to rise .4% versus a .7% increase in January.
- Personal Spending for February is estimated to remain unchanged versus a .9% increase in January.
- The PCE core for February is estimated to rise .1% versus a .2% increase in January.
9:45 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 86.9 versus a prior estimate of 86.7.
10:00 am EST
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for March is estimated to rise to 57.0 versus a reading of 54.9 in February.
- Factory Orders for February are estimated to rise 1.3% versus a 4.5% decline in January.
Bloomberg:
- Asian central banks have “limited” room to add more euros to their reserves, after increasing the amount in that currency in the second half of last year, according to a Goldman Sachs research report.
- Citigroup(C) led Forbes magazine’s annual Global 2000 company list for a third consecutive year.
- Japan’s consumer prices rose in February for a fourth month, adding to prospects that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates from near zero this year.
- China “regrets” the decision by the European Union and US to file a joint complaint at the World Trade Organization against that country’s tariffs on imports of car parts.
Daily Telegraph:
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who 18 months ago said he would not serve a fourth term in office, will step down by the end of this year.
Financial Times:
- General Motors(GM) should “show resolve” and make a decision on the development of a mass-market hydrogen-powered car within 18 months to ensure it remains competitive, citing an interview with Larry Burns, the carmaker’s vice president in charge of strategic planning.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
JPMorgan:
- Raised NOVL to Buy, target $11.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (GY)/-.15
- (GPN)/.34
Upcoming Splits
- (DBRN) 2-for-1
- (NX) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for February is estimated to rise .4% versus a .7% increase in January.
- Personal Spending for February is estimated to remain unchanged versus a .9% increase in January.
- The PCE core for February is estimated to rise .1% versus a .2% increase in January.
9:45 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 86.9 versus a prior estimate of 86.7.
10:00 am EST
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for March is estimated to rise to 57.0 versus a reading of 54.9 in February.
- Factory Orders for February are estimated to rise 1.3% versus a 4.5% decline in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed, as gains in commodity shares are offsetting losses in exporting stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to trade modestly higher into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Mostly Lower on Oil and Rate Worries
Indices
S&P 500 1,300.25 -.20%
DJIA 11,150.70 -.58%
NASDAQ 2,340.82 +.13%
Russell 2000 762.59 -.21%
Wilshire 5000 13,153.76 -.17%
S&P Barra Growth 612.98 -.09%
S&P Barra Value 683.96 -.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 610.65 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 816.31 -.31%
Morgan Stanley Technology 550.06 +.89%
Transports 4,547.81 -.45%
Utilities 392.66 -1.11%
Put/Call .83 +2.47%
NYSE Arms .81 +23.33%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 +5.66%
ISE Sentiment 111.00 -18.98%
US Dollar 89.36 -.94%
CRB 337.31 +1.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.03 -.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 199.57 +2.12%
Natural Gas 7.46 -.29%
Heating Oil 188.43 +1.74%
Gold 588.60 +.32%
Base Metals 179.83 +1.42%
Copper 248.90 +.18%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.85% +1.06%
Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.13%
Gaming +1.68%
Broadcasting +1.01%
Lagging Sectors
REITs -1.58%
Oil Tankers -1.92%
Airlines -2.03%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (NTAP) Buy, target $42.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Legg Mason(LM) said it named Bill Miller chairman of its Legg Mason Capital Management mutual-fund unit and promoted four other executives.
Wall Street Journal:
- Colony Capital LLC offered $41 a share for Aztar Corp.(AZR), topping a bid from Pinnacle Entertainment.
Financial Times:
- Thirty-eight unsolicited takeover bids worth a total of $234 billion were made in the first quarter of 2006, citing Dealogic Holdings Plc.
S&P 500 1,300.25 -.20%
DJIA 11,150.70 -.58%
NASDAQ 2,340.82 +.13%
Russell 2000 762.59 -.21%
Wilshire 5000 13,153.76 -.17%
S&P Barra Growth 612.98 -.09%
S&P Barra Value 683.96 -.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 610.65 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 816.31 -.31%
Morgan Stanley Technology 550.06 +.89%
Transports 4,547.81 -.45%
Utilities 392.66 -1.11%
Put/Call .83 +2.47%
NYSE Arms .81 +23.33%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 +5.66%
ISE Sentiment 111.00 -18.98%
US Dollar 89.36 -.94%
CRB 337.31 +1.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.03 -.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 199.57 +2.12%
Natural Gas 7.46 -.29%
Heating Oil 188.43 +1.74%
Gold 588.60 +.32%
Base Metals 179.83 +1.42%
Copper 248.90 +.18%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.85% +1.06%
Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.13%
Gaming +1.68%
Broadcasting +1.01%
Lagging Sectors
REITs -1.58%
Oil Tankers -1.92%
Airlines -2.03%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (NTAP) Buy, target $42.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Legg Mason(LM) said it named Bill Miller chairman of its Legg Mason Capital Management mutual-fund unit and promoted four other executives.
Wall Street Journal:
- Colony Capital LLC offered $41 a share for Aztar Corp.(AZR), topping a bid from Pinnacle Entertainment.
Financial Times:
- Thirty-eight unsolicited takeover bids worth a total of $234 billion were made in the first quarter of 2006, citing Dealogic Holdings Plc.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Semi longs and Internet longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was mixed today as the advance/decline line finished about even, sector performance was mixed and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was neutral. However, the Nasdaq displayed exceptional resilience. The ISE Sentiment Index finished down 19% to a below-average 111, which is a positive. Even with the recent rise in commodities, the CRB is still 14 points below January highs. This was the type of healthy consolidation I am happy to see in the major average after yesterday’s sharp rise.
Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Continuing Worries Over Rates and Oil
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs and Semi longs. I added (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above-average. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.35% this week from 6.32% the prior week. This is still lower than the 6.37% three weeks ago. Mortgage rates are now 114 basis points away from record lows set in June 2003. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is still below levels seen in June 2004. I continue to expect mortgage rates to remain relatively low by historic standards this year as U.S. growth slows to average levels, demand for U.S. assets increases, inflation readings decelerate and the dollar remains stable. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as short-covering offsets profit-taking.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The cost of hiring tankers may fall 25% this year on excess ship supply, Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker, said.
- Nokia(NOK), the world’s biggest maker of mobile phones, raised its forecast for growth in the global handset market to 15%.
- Emerging markets are becoming vulnerable to imbalances in the global economy and investors aren’t paying enough attention to the risks in some of those economies, a group of the world’s largest banks said.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) today denied its iTunes store breaches a trademark agreement with the Beatles’ company, saying that it doesn’t own the rights to music sold through the site.
- Crude oil is rising to an eight-week high and gasoline surged as US fuel supplies declined and the UN Security Council asked Iran to curb its nuclear program.
- US Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year yields to the highest since May 2004 on more signs the US economy remains strong.
Wall Street Journal:
- Some US small-cap mutual funds have been closing to new investors, making it difficult to tap into the strong growth shown by companies with market values of less than $500 million.
- The bankruptcy-court case of Foamex International, a maker of foam for mattresses, carpet cushions and car seats, shows how hedge funds are playing a larger role in financing troubled companies.
- Lottery commissions in several US states are turning to slot machines in efforts to boost revenue.
- General Electric(GE) and other companies are restricting employees’ use of the Internet because of concern with viruses, communications blockages and possible regulatory violations.
- A group of private-equity and hedge-fund managers seems to be leading the bidding for Enron’s international assets.
- General Motors(GM) is closer to an agreement to sell 51% of its finance arm, General Motors Acceptance Corp., to a group led by Cerberus Capital for $11 billion.
- The US House of Representatives is expected to pass a bill this week that would require financial reports from colleges and universities as a way to curb tuition increases.
- The US Environmental Protection Agency plans to impose new emissions standards for lawn equipment to reduce air pollution and gas consumption.
AP:
- TiVo Inc.(TIVO) shared technology know-how with EchoStar Communications’(DISH), which used the details in its own boxes for pausing and rewinding live television programs, TiVo’s co-founder, Michael Ramsey said in court yesterday.
NY Times:
- US House Speaker Dennis Hastert said that he and other House Republicans support a guest-worker program.
Interfax
- Oil and condensate production from Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak field could triple if $10 billion is invested during the next six to eight years, citing the CEO of BG Group.
- The cost of hiring tankers may fall 25% this year on excess ship supply, Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker, said.
- Nokia(NOK), the world’s biggest maker of mobile phones, raised its forecast for growth in the global handset market to 15%.
- Emerging markets are becoming vulnerable to imbalances in the global economy and investors aren’t paying enough attention to the risks in some of those economies, a group of the world’s largest banks said.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) today denied its iTunes store breaches a trademark agreement with the Beatles’ company, saying that it doesn’t own the rights to music sold through the site.
- Crude oil is rising to an eight-week high and gasoline surged as US fuel supplies declined and the UN Security Council asked Iran to curb its nuclear program.
- US Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year yields to the highest since May 2004 on more signs the US economy remains strong.
Wall Street Journal:
- Some US small-cap mutual funds have been closing to new investors, making it difficult to tap into the strong growth shown by companies with market values of less than $500 million.
- The bankruptcy-court case of Foamex International, a maker of foam for mattresses, carpet cushions and car seats, shows how hedge funds are playing a larger role in financing troubled companies.
- Lottery commissions in several US states are turning to slot machines in efforts to boost revenue.
- General Electric(GE) and other companies are restricting employees’ use of the Internet because of concern with viruses, communications blockages and possible regulatory violations.
- A group of private-equity and hedge-fund managers seems to be leading the bidding for Enron’s international assets.
- General Motors(GM) is closer to an agreement to sell 51% of its finance arm, General Motors Acceptance Corp., to a group led by Cerberus Capital for $11 billion.
- The US House of Representatives is expected to pass a bill this week that would require financial reports from colleges and universities as a way to curb tuition increases.
- The US Environmental Protection Agency plans to impose new emissions standards for lawn equipment to reduce air pollution and gas consumption.
AP:
- TiVo Inc.(TIVO) shared technology know-how with EchoStar Communications’(DISH), which used the details in its own boxes for pausing and rewinding live television programs, TiVo’s co-founder, Michael Ramsey said in court yesterday.
NY Times:
- US House Speaker Dennis Hastert said that he and other House Republicans support a guest-worker program.
Interfax
- Oil and condensate production from Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak field could triple if $10 billion is invested during the next six to eight years, citing the CEO of BG Group.
4Q GDP Slows, Jobless Claims Still Low
- Final 4Q GDP rose 1.7% versus estimates of a 1.7% gain and a prior estimate of a 1.6% rise.
- Final 4Q GDP Price Index rose 3.5% versus estimates of a 3.3% increase and a prior estimate of a 3.3% increase.
- Final 4Q Personal Consumption rose .9% versus estimates of a 1.2% increase and a prior estimate of a 1.2% gain.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 302K versus estimates of 305K and 312K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2483K versus estimates of 2475K and 2463K prior.
- Final 4Q GDP Price Index rose 3.5% versus estimates of a 3.3% increase and a prior estimate of a 3.3% increase.
- Final 4Q Personal Consumption rose .9% versus estimates of a 1.2% increase and a prior estimate of a 1.2% gain.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 302K versus estimates of 305K and 312K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2483K versus estimates of 2475K and 2463K prior.
BOTTOM LINE: The US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.7% last quarter, Bloomberg reported. Corporate earnings adjusted for the value of inventories and depreciation of capital expenditures rose 14.4% to an annual rate of $1.48 trillion. The core pce index, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, rose 2.4% last quarter. Spending on commercial construction as well as equipment and software grew at an annual pace of 4.5% last quarter versus an 8.5% rise in the 3rd quarter. Inventory rebuilding added 1.89 percentage points to economic growth last quarter as companies gained confidence in the durability of the current expansion. Residential construction rose 2.8% last quarter versus a 7.3% gain the prior quarter. I expect GDP growth to come in a brisk 4-4.5% this quarter, which should be the peak for the year. Growth should slow to average levels through year-end. Long-term interest rates should also peak for the year around the time of the 1Q GDP release.
First-time claims for US jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week as a buoyant labor market gave consumers the income to keep spending, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving-average fell to 310,750 from 312,250 the prior week. Solid job growth and rising incomes are boosting consumer confidence, which surged in March to the best level in almost 4 years. I continue to believe the labor market will remain relatively healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor costs increases.
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Japan’s industrial production unexpectedly fell, snapping the longest expansion in nine years, as companies scaled back output from record levels.
- PIMCO the biggest buyer of emerging-market debt, plans to start an Asian bond fund within six months to capitalize on demand for the region’s debt.
- General Motors(GM) said it is in talks to sell part of its stake in Japanese truckmaker Isuzu Motors to raise cash.
Commercial Times:
- Taiwan’s Advanced Semiconductor Engineering and Siliconware Precision Industries reached their maximum utilization capacity in the first quarter.
Financial Times:
- Alcatel SA(ALA) and Lucent Technologies(LU) may agree on a merger within days.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AGE)/.76
- (BBY)/1.29
- (KMX)/.38
- (CMVT)/.19
- (PTEN)/.73
- (SRR)/.25
- (TXI)/.12
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Final 4Q GDP is estimated to rise 1.7% versus a prior estimate of a 1.6% increase.
- Final 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 3.3% versus a prior estimate of a 3.3% rise.
- Final 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 1.2% versus a prior estimate of a 1.2% increase.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise 305K versus 302K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2475K versus 2472K prior.
Bloomberg:
- Japan’s industrial production unexpectedly fell, snapping the longest expansion in nine years, as companies scaled back output from record levels.
- PIMCO the biggest buyer of emerging-market debt, plans to start an Asian bond fund within six months to capitalize on demand for the region’s debt.
- General Motors(GM) said it is in talks to sell part of its stake in Japanese truckmaker Isuzu Motors to raise cash.
Commercial Times:
- Taiwan’s Advanced Semiconductor Engineering and Siliconware Precision Industries reached their maximum utilization capacity in the first quarter.
Financial Times:
- Alcatel SA(ALA) and Lucent Technologies(LU) may agree on a merger within days.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AGE)/.76
- (BBY)/1.29
- (KMX)/.38
- (CMVT)/.19
- (PTEN)/.73
- (SRR)/.25
- (TXI)/.12
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Final 4Q GDP is estimated to rise 1.7% versus a prior estimate of a 1.6% increase.
- Final 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 3.3% versus a prior estimate of a 3.3% rise.
- Final 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 1.2% versus a prior estimate of a 1.2% increase.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise 305K versus 302K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2475K versus 2472K prior.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly higher into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Led by Tech and Small-cap Shares
Indices
S&P 500 1,302.89 +.75%
DJIA 11,215.70 +.55%
NASDAQ 2,337.78 +1.45%
Russell 2000 764.17 +1.72%
Wilshire 5000 13,175.60 +.88%
S&P Barra Growth 613.56 +.68%
S&P Barra Value 686.12 +.81%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 613.76 +.45%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 818.82 +1.02%
Morgan Stanley Technology 545.20 +1.60%
Transports 4,568.49 +.80%
Utilities 397.08 +.80%
Put/Call .81 -19.80%
NYSE Arms .66 -50.36%
Volatility(VIX) 10.95 -5.44%
ISE Sentiment 137.00 -2.84%
US Dollar 90.20 -.06%
CRB 332.92 +.38%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.42 -.05%
Unleaded Gasoline 196.50 +.55%
Natural Gas 7.50 +.59%
Heating Oil 185.30 +.05%
Gold 573.00 -.05%
Base Metals 177.31 -.49%
Copper 245.65 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.80% +.51%
Leading Sectors
Internet +4.02%
Steel +3.73%
Disk Drives +3.49%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.03%
Oil Tankers -.43%
Broadcasting -.52%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:
- Rated CME Overweight, target $475
- Rated ICE Overweight, target $75.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The drop in the US jobless rate is a correct signal that the labor market is tightening, a study by economists at the Fed showed.
- A proposed condominium and hotel tower that would be the tallest building in North America won approval from the Chicago City Council today, clearing the way for construction to start later this year.
- The five permanent members of the UN Security Council agreed on a draft statement demanding that Iran curb its nuclear program and cooperate with inspectors.
- Whirlpool(WHR) can complete its $1.68 billion takeover of Maytag(MYG), the US Justice Dept. decided as it rejected concerns from its own lawyers that the combination might hurt competition.
- Google(GOOG) plans to sell 5.3 million more shares to satisfy demand for the stock as the company joins the S&P 500.
- Boeing(BA) said it received an order for at least thirty 737 jets valued at about $2 billion from GE’s(GE) aircraft leasing unit.
- The US Senate approved its first revision of ethics rules in more than a decade, banning all gifts and meals from lobbyists, forcing greater disclosure, and doubling to two years the time that departing lawmakers must wait before lobbying former colleagues.
S&P 500 1,302.89 +.75%
DJIA 11,215.70 +.55%
NASDAQ 2,337.78 +1.45%
Russell 2000 764.17 +1.72%
Wilshire 5000 13,175.60 +.88%
S&P Barra Growth 613.56 +.68%
S&P Barra Value 686.12 +.81%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 613.76 +.45%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 818.82 +1.02%
Morgan Stanley Technology 545.20 +1.60%
Transports 4,568.49 +.80%
Utilities 397.08 +.80%
Put/Call .81 -19.80%
NYSE Arms .66 -50.36%
Volatility(VIX) 10.95 -5.44%
ISE Sentiment 137.00 -2.84%
US Dollar 90.20 -.06%
CRB 332.92 +.38%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.42 -.05%
Unleaded Gasoline 196.50 +.55%
Natural Gas 7.50 +.59%
Heating Oil 185.30 +.05%
Gold 573.00 -.05%
Base Metals 177.31 -.49%
Copper 245.65 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.80% +.51%
Leading Sectors
Internet +4.02%
Steel +3.73%
Disk Drives +3.49%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.03%
Oil Tankers -.43%
Broadcasting -.52%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:
- Rated CME Overweight, target $475
- Rated ICE Overweight, target $75.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The drop in the US jobless rate is a correct signal that the labor market is tightening, a study by economists at the Fed showed.
- A proposed condominium and hotel tower that would be the tallest building in North America won approval from the Chicago City Council today, clearing the way for construction to start later this year.
- The five permanent members of the UN Security Council agreed on a draft statement demanding that Iran curb its nuclear program and cooperate with inspectors.
- Whirlpool(WHR) can complete its $1.68 billion takeover of Maytag(MYG), the US Justice Dept. decided as it rejected concerns from its own lawyers that the combination might hurt competition.
- Google(GOOG) plans to sell 5.3 million more shares to satisfy demand for the stock as the company joins the S&P 500.
- Boeing(BA) said it received an order for at least thirty 737 jets valued at about $2 billion from GE’s(GE) aircraft leasing unit.
- The US Senate approved its first revision of ethics rules in more than a decade, banning all gifts and meals from lobbyists, forcing greater disclosure, and doubling to two years the time that departing lawmakers must wait before lobbying former colleagues.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Internet longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was very bullish. The Russell 2000 is now up 14% for the year. The average stock, as measured by the VGY Index, is 8.3% higher year-to-date. I sense that today's action is a harbinger of things to come on the Naz. Sustained p/e multiple expansion appears to have begun as investors gain confidence in the durability of the expansion. It appears to me that a portion of the capital that has been flooding into everything else is finding its way into U.S. equities.
Stocks Sharply Higher Into Final Hour, Led by Technology Shares
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs and Semi longs. I exited my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is heavy. Apple (AAPL) looks like it found support around the 200-day moving average. I expect the stock has bottomed and will trade substantially higher before year's end. I am still long (AAPL). One by one, the Nasdaq is getting its leadership back. I expect the index to substantially outperform during the second quarter. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as short-covering offsets profit-taking.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Airline bonds are staging their biggest rally in nine years as demand for travel rises and carriers emerge from bankruptcy with less debt.
- Angola passed Saudi Arabia to become China’s top oil supplier in February.
- The US government raised fuel-economy standards for light trucks such as sport-utility vehicles an average 11% over four years starting in 2008 and for the first time included the biggest SUVs.
- Apple Computer(AAPL), which has sold more than 42.2 million iPod players since October 2001, released software that lets parents set the volume on the music devices to protect their children’s hearing.
Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup(C) will start today Citibank Direct, an Internet bank offering online, high-yield savings accounts.
- The SEC said it expects to take action this year to stop late trading in mutual funds and will decide whether to make proposals stipulating the use of interactive data for corporate reports.
- Japan’s economy is getting new and more sustainable support from an increase in household spending, a shift that could have important implications for global trade.
- Southwest Air(LUV) may be one of the weaker prospects for investors hoping to profit from a rebound in the aviation business.
- GlaxoSmithKline Plc(GSK) and Colgate-Palmolive(CL) are among companies that are expected to present bids for Pfizer’s(PFE) consumer products unit in first-round auctions today.
- EBay(EBAY) plans today to contest a 19th-century Supreme Court ruling that infringement of a patent could lead to an injunction against using an invention even if the patent holder never did.
- Time Warner(TWX) is changing the way it manages publishing, to focus more on the Internet.
AP:
- A plan to expand a guest worker program for immigrants who want jobs in the US is a “bad idea,” AFL-CIO labor union President Sweeney said.
- The Bluetooth wireless telecom standard will adopt a new radio technology known as ultra-wideband, allowing it to accommodate high-definition video and files for digital music players.
- Airline bonds are staging their biggest rally in nine years as demand for travel rises and carriers emerge from bankruptcy with less debt.
- Angola passed Saudi Arabia to become China’s top oil supplier in February.
- The US government raised fuel-economy standards for light trucks such as sport-utility vehicles an average 11% over four years starting in 2008 and for the first time included the biggest SUVs.
- Apple Computer(AAPL), which has sold more than 42.2 million iPod players since October 2001, released software that lets parents set the volume on the music devices to protect their children’s hearing.
Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup(C) will start today Citibank Direct, an Internet bank offering online, high-yield savings accounts.
- The SEC said it expects to take action this year to stop late trading in mutual funds and will decide whether to make proposals stipulating the use of interactive data for corporate reports.
- Japan’s economy is getting new and more sustainable support from an increase in household spending, a shift that could have important implications for global trade.
- Southwest Air(LUV) may be one of the weaker prospects for investors hoping to profit from a rebound in the aviation business.
- GlaxoSmithKline Plc(GSK) and Colgate-Palmolive(CL) are among companies that are expected to present bids for Pfizer’s(PFE) consumer products unit in first-round auctions today.
- EBay(EBAY) plans today to contest a 19th-century Supreme Court ruling that infringement of a patent could lead to an injunction against using an invention even if the patent holder never did.
- Time Warner(TWX) is changing the way it manages publishing, to focus more on the Internet.
AP:
- A plan to expand a guest worker program for immigrants who want jobs in the US is a “bad idea,” AFL-CIO labor union President Sweeney said.
- The Bluetooth wireless telecom standard will adopt a new radio technology known as ultra-wideband, allowing it to accommodate high-definition video and files for digital music players.
Oil Supplies Rise
- The EIA reported crude oil inventories rose 2,030,000 barrels vs. estimates of a 950,000 barrel increase. Gasoline supplies fell 5,337,000 barrels vs. estimates of a 1,450,000 barrel decline. Distillate inventories fell 2,500,00 barrels vs. estimates of a 1,250,000 barrel decline. Refinery utilization rose 0.32% vs. estimates of a 0.5% rise.
BOTTOM LINE: Overall, these numbers are bullish for the energy complex. Normally, I would expect traders to sell the news, but with the oil ETF coming next week, this is unlikely.
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
Wednesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez called on China to crack down harder on copyright piracy and open its markets further to US products or risk a protectionist backlash that would hurt both economies.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Downgraded (RDY) to Sell from Buy.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.12%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ARRO)/.29
- (RECN)/.28
- (RI)/.46
- (SCS)/.11
- (UTIW)/.23
Upcoming Splits
- (BUCY) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude build of 950,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall 1,450,000 barrels, and distillate supplies are expected to decrease by 1,250,000 barrels. Refinery utilization is expected to rise .50%.
Bloomberg:
- US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez called on China to crack down harder on copyright piracy and open its markets further to US products or risk a protectionist backlash that would hurt both economies.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Downgraded (RDY) to Sell from Buy.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.12%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ARRO)/.29
- (RECN)/.28
- (RI)/.46
- (SCS)/.11
- (UTIW)/.23
Upcoming Splits
- (BUCY) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude build of 950,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall 1,450,000 barrels, and distillate supplies are expected to decrease by 1,250,000 barrels. Refinery utilization is expected to rise .50%.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by exporting shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly lower into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Near Lows after Fed Rate Hike and Rise in Oil
Indices
S&P 500 1,293.23 -.64%
DJIA 11,154.54 -.85%
NASDAQ 2,304.46 -.48%
Russell 2000 751.27 -.37%
Wilshire 5000 13,060.13 -.54%
S&P Barra Growth 609.39 -.58%
S&P Barra Value 680.59 -.71%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 610.99 -.67%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 810.59 -.47%
Morgan Stanley Technology 536.60 -.64%
Transports 4,532.17 -.57%
Utilities 393.92 -.57%
Put/Call 1.01 +20.24%
NYSE Arms 1.34 +46.16%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 +.96%
ISE Sentiment 140.00 +2.19%
US Dollar 90.20 +.14%
CRB 331.66 +1.21%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.95 -.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 187.90 -.29%
Natural Gas 7.24 +.49%
Heating Oil 183.10 +.18%
Gold 567.00 unch.
Base Metals 178.17 -.30%
Copper 242.85 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.78% +1.63%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.98%
REITs +1.08%
Gaming +.63%
Lagging Sectors
Semis -2.05%
Gold & Silver -2.24%
Airlines -2.70%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Former Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger, who oversaw the US military buildup under President Reagan that helped win the Cold War with the Soviet Union, died at the age of 88.
- Israel’s Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his Kadima Party won today’s election, tapping voters’ desire to abandon talks with the Palestinians and fix the country’s borders unilaterally, exit polls showed.
- General Motors(GM) said it will restate several years of financial statements for its home-mortgage unit.
- TD Ameritrade Holding(AMTD) said earnings for the fiscal second quarter will exceed its earlier estimate of as much as .28/share due to a surge in trading volume.
- The IRS audited 11,715 US millionaires in 2005, providing a rare glimpse of its efforts to ensure wealthy taxpayers comply with tax laws.
- Shares of companies based in developing countries are rising for a seventh quarter, extending the longest string of advances since the 1980s. The p/e ratio of so-called emerging market stocks is the highest since 1999, relative to developed countries.
- US Treasuries declined, driving the 10-year yield up the most in two months, after the Fed raised interest rates for the 15th straight time and signaled additional increases are likely.
CNBC:
- The Federal Reserve may boost its benchmark interest rate to 5% and stop there, former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer said.
S&P 500 1,293.23 -.64%
DJIA 11,154.54 -.85%
NASDAQ 2,304.46 -.48%
Russell 2000 751.27 -.37%
Wilshire 5000 13,060.13 -.54%
S&P Barra Growth 609.39 -.58%
S&P Barra Value 680.59 -.71%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 610.99 -.67%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 810.59 -.47%
Morgan Stanley Technology 536.60 -.64%
Transports 4,532.17 -.57%
Utilities 393.92 -.57%
Put/Call 1.01 +20.24%
NYSE Arms 1.34 +46.16%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 +.96%
ISE Sentiment 140.00 +2.19%
US Dollar 90.20 +.14%
CRB 331.66 +1.21%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.95 -.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 187.90 -.29%
Natural Gas 7.24 +.49%
Heating Oil 183.10 +.18%
Gold 567.00 unch.
Base Metals 178.17 -.30%
Copper 242.85 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.78% +1.63%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.98%
REITs +1.08%
Gaming +.63%
Lagging Sectors
Semis -2.05%
Gold & Silver -2.24%
Airlines -2.70%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Former Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger, who oversaw the US military buildup under President Reagan that helped win the Cold War with the Soviet Union, died at the age of 88.
- Israel’s Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his Kadima Party won today’s election, tapping voters’ desire to abandon talks with the Palestinians and fix the country’s borders unilaterally, exit polls showed.
- General Motors(GM) said it will restate several years of financial statements for its home-mortgage unit.
- TD Ameritrade Holding(AMTD) said earnings for the fiscal second quarter will exceed its earlier estimate of as much as .28/share due to a surge in trading volume.
- The IRS audited 11,715 US millionaires in 2005, providing a rare glimpse of its efforts to ensure wealthy taxpayers comply with tax laws.
- Shares of companies based in developing countries are rising for a seventh quarter, extending the longest string of advances since the 1980s. The p/e ratio of so-called emerging market stocks is the highest since 1999, relative to developed countries.
- US Treasuries declined, driving the 10-year yield up the most in two months, after the Fed raised interest rates for the 15th straight time and signaled additional increases are likely.
CNBC:
- The Federal Reserve may boost its benchmark interest rate to 5% and stop there, former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Computer longs, Semi longs, Biotech longs and Energy-related shorts. I added (QQQQ) and (IWM) shorts in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bearish. The bond market's reaction to the Fed hike and commentary is disappointing considering investor expectations. As well, oil may bounce further in the short-run on the new ETF scheduled for this Monday. Given how good this quarter has been to many, I expect to see more profit-taking into quarter-end.
Stocks Lower into Final Hour as Bonds Weaken
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Biotech longs, Computer longs, Semi longs and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is below average.
The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 2.4% year over year last week vs. a 2.5% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April 2005. The long-term average is a gain of around 2.5%. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index is 22.2% higher since late October, almost double the 11.6% gain for the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same time period. The Fed’s move and statements were about what most expected. The bond market appears to have overreacted. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Oil-tanker rates for shipments from the Middle East to Asia fell to the lowest level in almost seven months because of a surplus of vessels available for hire.
- President Bush said Iraqi leaders are returning to negotiations to try to form a government that can unite Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions.
- Israelis are voting in an election that has turned into a referendum on acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s plan to abandon talks with the Palestinians and for the country to fix borders by itself.
- French students and labor unionists marched through Paris today, leading a fourth nationwide day of violent protests against a new youth labor law.
- Oil rose to a seven-week high on speculation that a government report will show US gas inventories fell for a fourth straight week.
- The Federal Reserve, beginning a new era under Chairman Bernanke, raised the main US interest rate to 4.75% and held out the prospect of further increases.
- US Treasuries declined, driving the two-year yield to almost a five-year high, after the Fed raised rates for the 15th straight time.
Wall Street Journal:
- Hewlett-Packard’s(HPQ) shares, which have been on a hot streak since the company named Mark Hurd as chief executive officer almost a year ago, may be cooling.
- The American Stock Exchange expects a fund that tracks crude-oil prices to start trading on Monday.
- Hartford Financial Services Group(HIG) said it will sell life insurance at its regular rates immediately after surgery to men with moderate levels of prostate cancer.
- France’s nuclear energy program is drawing international attention because of its success in reducing dependence on foreign energy supplies and cutting greenhouse gases.
- General Motors’(GM) Buick minivan is the car of choice among China’s business elite.
- Capitol Reader, an Internet-based readers’ service, provides booklovers with condensed versions of the political and public-affairs books they’re interested in but lack time to read.
- Southern Co.(SO), Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) and other US companies are drafting proposals to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases.
- Cablevision Systems(CVC) will test a digital-video recorder that lets customers store programs on the company’s network rather than on a box in their homes.
NY Post:
- Jajah Inc., an Internet telephone startup, has the backing of Sequoia Capital Ltd., a venture capital firm that was an early supporter of Google(GOOG) and Yahoo!(YHOO).
NY Times:
- The number of US households with a net worth of $1 million or more, excluding main residences, rose to an all-time record 8.9 million last year, citing researcher TNS Financial Services.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) is boosting its lobbying and legislative operations as it seeks to catch up with competitors such as Yahoo!(YHOO) and Microsoft(MSFT) in Washington.
- US Helicopter Corp. began hourly shuttle service yesterday between Manhattan and John F. Kennedy International Airport for $139 each way, cutting the travel time to less than 10 minutes.
- The Arab League agreed on a plan to boost their diplomatic presence in Iraq.
Financial Times:
- The Bond Market Association will publish guidelines today to increase flexibility in the US market for borrowed bonds.
Gulf News:
- Lehman Brothers(LEH) plans to open offices in Dubai and Qatar to tap oil-driven wealth in the Middle East.
- Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ) is discussing listing opportunities with companies in the Persian Gulf.
Chronicle of Higher Education
- Public universities in Canada cost more to attend than those in the US, citing a study.
- Oil-tanker rates for shipments from the Middle East to Asia fell to the lowest level in almost seven months because of a surplus of vessels available for hire.
- President Bush said Iraqi leaders are returning to negotiations to try to form a government that can unite Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions.
- Israelis are voting in an election that has turned into a referendum on acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s plan to abandon talks with the Palestinians and for the country to fix borders by itself.
- French students and labor unionists marched through Paris today, leading a fourth nationwide day of violent protests against a new youth labor law.
- Oil rose to a seven-week high on speculation that a government report will show US gas inventories fell for a fourth straight week.
- The Federal Reserve, beginning a new era under Chairman Bernanke, raised the main US interest rate to 4.75% and held out the prospect of further increases.
- US Treasuries declined, driving the two-year yield to almost a five-year high, after the Fed raised rates for the 15th straight time.
Wall Street Journal:
- Hewlett-Packard’s(HPQ) shares, which have been on a hot streak since the company named Mark Hurd as chief executive officer almost a year ago, may be cooling.
- The American Stock Exchange expects a fund that tracks crude-oil prices to start trading on Monday.
- Hartford Financial Services Group(HIG) said it will sell life insurance at its regular rates immediately after surgery to men with moderate levels of prostate cancer.
- France’s nuclear energy program is drawing international attention because of its success in reducing dependence on foreign energy supplies and cutting greenhouse gases.
- General Motors’(GM) Buick minivan is the car of choice among China’s business elite.
- Capitol Reader, an Internet-based readers’ service, provides booklovers with condensed versions of the political and public-affairs books they’re interested in but lack time to read.
- Southern Co.(SO), Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) and other US companies are drafting proposals to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases.
- Cablevision Systems(CVC) will test a digital-video recorder that lets customers store programs on the company’s network rather than on a box in their homes.
NY Post:
- Jajah Inc., an Internet telephone startup, has the backing of Sequoia Capital Ltd., a venture capital firm that was an early supporter of Google(GOOG) and Yahoo!(YHOO).
NY Times:
- The number of US households with a net worth of $1 million or more, excluding main residences, rose to an all-time record 8.9 million last year, citing researcher TNS Financial Services.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) is boosting its lobbying and legislative operations as it seeks to catch up with competitors such as Yahoo!(YHOO) and Microsoft(MSFT) in Washington.
- US Helicopter Corp. began hourly shuttle service yesterday between Manhattan and John F. Kennedy International Airport for $139 each way, cutting the travel time to less than 10 minutes.
- The Arab League agreed on a plan to boost their diplomatic presence in Iraq.
Financial Times:
- The Bond Market Association will publish guidelines today to increase flexibility in the US market for borrowed bonds.
Gulf News:
- Lehman Brothers(LEH) plans to open offices in Dubai and Qatar to tap oil-driven wealth in the Middle East.
- Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ) is discussing listing opportunities with companies in the Persian Gulf.
Chronicle of Higher Education
- Public universities in Canada cost more to attend than those in the US, citing a study.
Consumer Confidence Highest Since April 2002
- Consumer Confidence for March rose to 107.2 versus estimates of 102.0 and a reading of 102.7 in February.
BOTTOM LINE: Consumer Confidence in the US economy jumped in March to the highest level in almost four years, driven by a strengthening labor market that’s lifting incomes and giving Americans means to spend, Bloomberg reported. The March reading beat even the highest estimate of 64 economists. The number of people saying that jobs are plentiful rose to the highest level since before the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Optimism about consumers’ present situation rose to 133.3, the highest since August 2001. The expectations component of the index rose to 89.9 from 84.2 the prior month. In my opinion, this component remains depressed due to the record number of leaders in the US, both political and financial, that perceive they benefit from spinning all news in a negative light. I continue to expect confidence to rise from current levels as irrational pessimism lifts further, energy prices fall, the labor market remains solid, stock prices rise further, housing stabilizes at more healthy levels and long-term rates remain relatively low.
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- UBS AG, the world’s largest money manager, is shunning stocks in Japan, while favoring US shares.
- France will deploy 4,000 policeman in the streets of Paris today to help ensure a protest march against a new labor law doesn’t turn violent again.
- An anti-addiction drug might help smokers keep pounds off while they try to quit, said researchers led by Stephanie O’Malley, psychiatry researcher at Yale Univ.
Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup Inc.(C) may bid as much as $5 billion for Turkey’s Finansbank AS.
Economic Times:
- India’s Oil & Natural Gas cut production at its plants in Uran and Hazira because its customers including Indian Oil Corp. have surplus gas and have not been taking it from the company.
Financial Times:
- The growth in UK expenditure on advertising this year is estimated at $972 million and almost a third of that will be spent on the Internet, citing Zenith Optimedia.
- The value of mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas industry tripled last year to $160 billion, the most since 1998.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on CFC, target $45.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (FUL)/.27
- (LEN)/1.55
- (PAYX)/.31
- (RHAT)/.12
- (TIF)/.84
Upcoming Splits
- (JLG) 2-for-1
- (NTES) 4-for-1
- (UTIW) 3-for-1
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 102.0 versus 101.7 in February.
2:00 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate 25 basis points to 4.75%.
Bloomberg:
- UBS AG, the world’s largest money manager, is shunning stocks in Japan, while favoring US shares.
- France will deploy 4,000 policeman in the streets of Paris today to help ensure a protest march against a new labor law doesn’t turn violent again.
- An anti-addiction drug might help smokers keep pounds off while they try to quit, said researchers led by Stephanie O’Malley, psychiatry researcher at Yale Univ.
Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup Inc.(C) may bid as much as $5 billion for Turkey’s Finansbank AS.
Economic Times:
- India’s Oil & Natural Gas cut production at its plants in Uran and Hazira because its customers including Indian Oil Corp. have surplus gas and have not been taking it from the company.
Financial Times:
- The growth in UK expenditure on advertising this year is estimated at $972 million and almost a third of that will be spent on the Internet, citing Zenith Optimedia.
- The value of mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas industry tripled last year to $160 billion, the most since 1998.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on CFC, target $45.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (FUL)/.27
- (LEN)/1.55
- (PAYX)/.31
- (RHAT)/.12
- (TIF)/.84
Upcoming Splits
- (JLG) 2-for-1
- (NTES) 4-for-1
- (UTIW) 3-for-1
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 102.0 versus 101.7 in February.
2:00 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate 25 basis points to 4.75%.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and mining shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly higher into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Monday, March 27, 2006
Stocks Finish Mixed ahead of Tomorrow's Fed Rate Announcement
Indices
S&P 500 1,301.61 -.10%
DJIA 11,250.11 -.26%
NASDAQ 2,315.18 +.12%
Russell 2000 754.03 +.03%
Wilshire 5000 13,131.37 -.08%
S&P Barra Growth 612.96 -.22%
S&P Barra Value 685.43 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 615.12 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 814.43 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 540.06 +.08%
Transports 4,557.95 +.67%
Utilities 396.19 -.89%
Put/Call .84 +6.33%
NYSE Arms .91 +20.70%
Volatility(VIX) 11.46 +2.41%
ISE Sentiment 142.00 -17.44%
US Dollar 90.07 unch.
CRB 327.71 +.22%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.34 +.28%
Unleaded Gasoline 183.55 +.37%
Natural Gas 7.08 +.18%
Heating Oil 178.11 -.63%
Gold 567.20 -.04%
Base Metals 178.71 +.82%
Copper 242.70 -.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.70% +.73%
Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.89%
Steel +1.46%
Papers +1.0%
Lagging Sectors
Utilities -.89%
REITs -.93%
Drugs -.95%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Shares of Time Warner Telecom(TWTC), which provides communications services over fiber networks connecting 44 US cities, were raised to “overweight” by Morgan Stanley analyst Vance Edelson, citing increased demand.
- General Motors(GM) said better-than-expected sales of new models such as the redesigned Chevrolet Tahoe are helping stem market-share declines as the automaker tries to cut its reliance on incentives and low-profit sales to rental agencies.
- Zacarias Moussaoui testified that he and would-be shoe bomber Richard Reid planned to hijack a jetliner and fly it into the White House on the day of the Sept.11 attacks.
- Brazil’s currency weakened after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s top economic policy maker submitted his resignation amid allegations of corruption.
- Corn and soybean prices rose in Chicago on speculation the spread of bird flu will be contained and demand for grain-based poultry feed won’t decline.
- Delphi has offered UAW union members a payment of $50,000 each in exchange for a 35% pay cut.
- The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the largest US futures market, said it plans to offer energy contracts in June after a non-compete with the NY Merc expires.
- A Senate panel approved hiring up to 14,000 more Border Patrol agents to increase border enforcement as part of an overhaul of immigration laws.
- Copper and zinc prices rose to records on speculation that metals demand, driven by worldwide economic growth, will reduce inventories and trigger supply shortfalls.
Financial Times:
- Lucent Technologies’(LU) Bell Labs research unit may be separated and put under control of a new board if the company is taken over by Alcatel SA(ALA).
S&P 500 1,301.61 -.10%
DJIA 11,250.11 -.26%
NASDAQ 2,315.18 +.12%
Russell 2000 754.03 +.03%
Wilshire 5000 13,131.37 -.08%
S&P Barra Growth 612.96 -.22%
S&P Barra Value 685.43 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 615.12 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 814.43 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 540.06 +.08%
Transports 4,557.95 +.67%
Utilities 396.19 -.89%
Put/Call .84 +6.33%
NYSE Arms .91 +20.70%
Volatility(VIX) 11.46 +2.41%
ISE Sentiment 142.00 -17.44%
US Dollar 90.07 unch.
CRB 327.71 +.22%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.34 +.28%
Unleaded Gasoline 183.55 +.37%
Natural Gas 7.08 +.18%
Heating Oil 178.11 -.63%
Gold 567.20 -.04%
Base Metals 178.71 +.82%
Copper 242.70 -.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.70% +.73%
Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.89%
Steel +1.46%
Papers +1.0%
Lagging Sectors
Utilities -.89%
REITs -.93%
Drugs -.95%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Shares of Time Warner Telecom(TWTC), which provides communications services over fiber networks connecting 44 US cities, were raised to “overweight” by Morgan Stanley analyst Vance Edelson, citing increased demand.
- General Motors(GM) said better-than-expected sales of new models such as the redesigned Chevrolet Tahoe are helping stem market-share declines as the automaker tries to cut its reliance on incentives and low-profit sales to rental agencies.
- Zacarias Moussaoui testified that he and would-be shoe bomber Richard Reid planned to hijack a jetliner and fly it into the White House on the day of the Sept.11 attacks.
- Brazil’s currency weakened after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s top economic policy maker submitted his resignation amid allegations of corruption.
- Corn and soybean prices rose in Chicago on speculation the spread of bird flu will be contained and demand for grain-based poultry feed won’t decline.
- Delphi has offered UAW union members a payment of $50,000 each in exchange for a 35% pay cut.
- The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the largest US futures market, said it plans to offer energy contracts in June after a non-compete with the NY Merc expires.
- A Senate panel approved hiring up to 14,000 more Border Patrol agents to increase border enforcement as part of an overhaul of immigration laws.
- Copper and zinc prices rose to records on speculation that metals demand, driven by worldwide economic growth, will reduce inventories and trigger supply shortfalls.
Financial Times:
- Lucent Technologies’(LU) Bell Labs research unit may be separated and put under control of a new board if the company is taken over by Alcatel SA(ALA).
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Networking longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline line finished near even, sector performance was mixed and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was neutral. However, a number of market-leading stocks traded very well throughout the day. Investors appear as though they are becoming increasingly confident in the durability of the current economic expansion. I continue to believe U.S. growth will slow to average levels later this year, which will likely have a greater negative impact on some economically sensitive stocks than most expect.
Stocks Mixed into Final Hour ahead of Fed Rate Announcement Tomorrow
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Medical longs and Networking longs. I added (UARM) long and exited a retail long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are gaining and volume is about average. According to theFlyontheWall.com, Deutsche Bank is saying that the Society of Gynecologic Oncologists conference over the weekend gave them increased confidence that gynecology will be a "blockbuster market for da Vinci." I agree and continue to believe that Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) has the potential to be one of the greatest growth stories this decade. The stock has rallied almost 40% since lows seen earlier in the month. So far, my conviction for the stock has paid off. I am still long (ISRG). I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Natural-gas futures in New York may resume their downtrend as mild weather cuts heating demand, leaving supplies near record levels, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
- Optimism that the US economy and earnings will growth without fueling inflation sent US stocks toward their biggest first-quarter advance in seven years.
- Alcatel’s(ALA) potential takeover of Lucent Technologies(LU) may spark a wave of takeovers among networking-equipment companies.
- Globalization may end up being the saving grace for Ben S. Bernanke’s Federal Reserve that productivity was for Alan Greenspan’s.
- US Treasuries are falling before Federal Reserve officials start a two-day meeting where they’re expected to raise interest rates for the 15th straight time and in advance of an auction today of two-year notes.
- Nigerian militants releases three oil workers, two US citizens and a Briton, who were kidnapped more than a month ago in the Niger River delta.
Wall Street Journal:
- Alcatel’s(ALA) plan to merge with Lucent Technologies(LU) is part of an effort to meet competition from Chinese telephone-equipment makers such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp.
- Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil company, is leading the development of oil extraction from sand in Canada as oil prices rise.
- Major League Baseball’s Web site has agreements with 25 clients, including CBS Corp., to help provide live streaming video to large audiences on the Internet.
- Regulators of the Federal Home Loan Banks may cut a subsidy granted to thousands of lenders including Washington Mutual(WM) and Citigroup(C).
- The SEC has subpoenaed Gradient Analytics, an Arizona-based securities research firm, about its dealings with journalists and hedge-fund advisers, citing a March 10 document.
- The change in US bankruptcy law introduced last year hasn’t significantly affected corporate insolvencies, citing talks with attorneys.
- Revised US Labor Dept. disclosure rules for unions with annual revenue of at least $250,000 offer members and government auditors added details about their spending patterns.
LA Times:
- Tenet Healthcare(THC) is revamping its hospitals to doctors’ orders in an effort to win back their favor and fill more beds following nationally reported legal problems.
NY Times:
- Rallies in the US in support of immigrants have drawn so many people that even the organizers have been surprised.
Asharq Al-Awsat
- Saudi Arabian brokerages received few requests from foreign residents in the kingdom to buy stocks after they were allowed to trade in a market previously limited to nationals.
Reuters:
- Time Warner’s(TWX) studio division plans to open at least 200 stores in China as demand increases for its trademark characters.
- Natural-gas futures in New York may resume their downtrend as mild weather cuts heating demand, leaving supplies near record levels, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
- Optimism that the US economy and earnings will growth without fueling inflation sent US stocks toward their biggest first-quarter advance in seven years.
- Alcatel’s(ALA) potential takeover of Lucent Technologies(LU) may spark a wave of takeovers among networking-equipment companies.
- Globalization may end up being the saving grace for Ben S. Bernanke’s Federal Reserve that productivity was for Alan Greenspan’s.
- US Treasuries are falling before Federal Reserve officials start a two-day meeting where they’re expected to raise interest rates for the 15th straight time and in advance of an auction today of two-year notes.
- Nigerian militants releases three oil workers, two US citizens and a Briton, who were kidnapped more than a month ago in the Niger River delta.
Wall Street Journal:
- Alcatel’s(ALA) plan to merge with Lucent Technologies(LU) is part of an effort to meet competition from Chinese telephone-equipment makers such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp.
- Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil company, is leading the development of oil extraction from sand in Canada as oil prices rise.
- Major League Baseball’s Web site has agreements with 25 clients, including CBS Corp., to help provide live streaming video to large audiences on the Internet.
- Regulators of the Federal Home Loan Banks may cut a subsidy granted to thousands of lenders including Washington Mutual(WM) and Citigroup(C).
- The SEC has subpoenaed Gradient Analytics, an Arizona-based securities research firm, about its dealings with journalists and hedge-fund advisers, citing a March 10 document.
- The change in US bankruptcy law introduced last year hasn’t significantly affected corporate insolvencies, citing talks with attorneys.
- Revised US Labor Dept. disclosure rules for unions with annual revenue of at least $250,000 offer members and government auditors added details about their spending patterns.
LA Times:
- Tenet Healthcare(THC) is revamping its hospitals to doctors’ orders in an effort to win back their favor and fill more beds following nationally reported legal problems.
NY Times:
- Rallies in the US in support of immigrants have drawn so many people that even the organizers have been surprised.
Asharq Al-Awsat
- Saudi Arabian brokerages received few requests from foreign residents in the kingdom to buy stocks after they were allowed to trade in a market previously limited to nationals.
Reuters:
- Time Warner’s(TWX) studio division plans to open at least 200 stores in China as demand increases for its trademark characters.
Sunday, March 26, 2006
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said it is “entirely likely” that more US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq in 2006 as the country’s own forces continue taking on more responsibility for security.
- BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the biggest producers of iron ore, may be forced by China to limit price increases.
- Hamas, the Islamic movement that won Palestinian elections in January, wants to end the crisis with Israel, incoming Palestinian Prime Minister Ismael Hania said.
Economist.com:
- China hopes to use the 2008 Olympics in Beijing to market its emergence on the world stage.
NY Times:
- New York state leaders are negotiating a set of tax cuts funded by a budget surplus of $2 billion to $4.5 billion
- US families are taking advantage of hundreds of time-saving stores with already peeled and sliced ingredients to prepare home-cooked meals to avoid to take-out food and to make ready meals faster.
- Vinod Khosla, a founder of Sun Microsystems(SUNW), as well as Richard Branson and Bill Gates are among executives investing in ethanol, a fuel made from corn or other organic matter.
Washington Post:
- The US Federal Election Commission yesterday proposed treating political Web logs and Internet news sites similarly to newspapers, leaving speech other than campaign advertisements largely unregulated.
Financial Times:
- Alcatel SA(ALA) and Lucent Technologies’(LU) plan to combine will spark a review from the US government and Congress on national security grounds.
Business:
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) and Chevron Corp.(CVX) have discovered oil and natural-gas in fields in western Africa.
Die Welt:
- Continental AG CEO Wennemer said the German tiremaker is interested in buying parts of US auto-parts makers Delphi Corp. and Dana Corp.
Le Figaro:
- France was the only country of 20 polled where most people reject free markets, citing a survey by GlobeScan.
London-based Times:
- Apple Corps, owned by the former Beatles and their heirs, is going to court this week demanding multimillion-pound damages against iPod-maker Apple Computer(AAPL)
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (WEN), (XOM), (CVX), (APC), (DVN), (CHK), (KMG), (PPP), (XEC), (THX), (WLL), (LAUR) and (COP).
- Had negative comments on (THI).
Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (WAG)/.52
- (PHH)/.52
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said it is “entirely likely” that more US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq in 2006 as the country’s own forces continue taking on more responsibility for security.
- BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the biggest producers of iron ore, may be forced by China to limit price increases.
- Hamas, the Islamic movement that won Palestinian elections in January, wants to end the crisis with Israel, incoming Palestinian Prime Minister Ismael Hania said.
Economist.com:
- China hopes to use the 2008 Olympics in Beijing to market its emergence on the world stage.
NY Times:
- New York state leaders are negotiating a set of tax cuts funded by a budget surplus of $2 billion to $4.5 billion
- US families are taking advantage of hundreds of time-saving stores with already peeled and sliced ingredients to prepare home-cooked meals to avoid to take-out food and to make ready meals faster.
- Vinod Khosla, a founder of Sun Microsystems(SUNW), as well as Richard Branson and Bill Gates are among executives investing in ethanol, a fuel made from corn or other organic matter.
Washington Post:
- The US Federal Election Commission yesterday proposed treating political Web logs and Internet news sites similarly to newspapers, leaving speech other than campaign advertisements largely unregulated.
Financial Times:
- Alcatel SA(ALA) and Lucent Technologies’(LU) plan to combine will spark a review from the US government and Congress on national security grounds.
Business:
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) and Chevron Corp.(CVX) have discovered oil and natural-gas in fields in western Africa.
Die Welt:
- Continental AG CEO Wennemer said the German tiremaker is interested in buying parts of US auto-parts makers Delphi Corp. and Dana Corp.
Le Figaro:
- France was the only country of 20 polled where most people reject free markets, citing a survey by GlobeScan.
London-based Times:
- Apple Corps, owned by the former Beatles and their heirs, is going to court this week demanding multimillion-pound damages against iPod-maker Apple Computer(AAPL)
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (WEN), (XOM), (CVX), (APC), (DVN), (CHK), (KMG), (PPP), (XEC), (THX), (WLL), (LAUR) and (COP).
- Had negative comments on (THI).
Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (WAG)/.52
- (PHH)/.52
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by exporting shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Stocks Finish at Session Highs on Above-average Volume
Indices
S&P 500 1,305.04 +.60%
DJIA 11,317.43 +.73%
NASDAQ 2,303.35 +.40%
Russell 2000 744.85 +1.19%
Wilshire 5000 13,131.13 +.64%
S&P Barra Growth 615.68 +.49%
S&P Barra Value 685.99 +.72%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 617.31 +.64%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 810.97 +.96%
Morgan Stanley Technology 537.21 +.07%
Transports 4,614.94 +1.18%
Utilities 401.30 +.56%
Put/Call .97 +2.11%
NYSE Arms .83 -14.33%
Volatility(VIX) 11.21 -3.53%
ISE Sentiment 157.00 -7.10%
US Dollar 89.73 +.12%
CRB 320.27 -.77%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.12 +.57%
Unleaded Gasoline 174.15 +.29%
Natural Gas 7.0 +.75%
Heating Oil 174.67 +.09%
Gold 550.90 -.15%
Base Metals 172.29 -.26%
Copper 233.90 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.69% -.38%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.83%
Drugs +2.01%
I-Banks +1.03%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -.01%
Broadcasting -.14%
Computer Hardware -.24%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated QCOM Buy, target $60.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed confidence that American diplomats will settle differences with China and Russia on a UN statement intended to persuade Iran to rein in its nuclear program.
- The American Civil Liberties Union(ACLU) filed suit seeking to overturn a US law that makes students ineligible for federally backed college loans once they have been convicted on a drug charge.
- Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Bush will discuss the fight against terrorism and halting the spread of nuclear weapons when they meet April 20 in Washington.
- Humans with H5N1 avian influenza evidently can’t spread the virus easily through coughing and sneezing, scientists said.
S&P 500 1,305.04 +.60%
DJIA 11,317.43 +.73%
NASDAQ 2,303.35 +.40%
Russell 2000 744.85 +1.19%
Wilshire 5000 13,131.13 +.64%
S&P Barra Growth 615.68 +.49%
S&P Barra Value 685.99 +.72%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 617.31 +.64%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 810.97 +.96%
Morgan Stanley Technology 537.21 +.07%
Transports 4,614.94 +1.18%
Utilities 401.30 +.56%
Put/Call .97 +2.11%
NYSE Arms .83 -14.33%
Volatility(VIX) 11.21 -3.53%
ISE Sentiment 157.00 -7.10%
US Dollar 89.73 +.12%
CRB 320.27 -.77%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.12 +.57%
Unleaded Gasoline 174.15 +.29%
Natural Gas 7.0 +.75%
Heating Oil 174.67 +.09%
Gold 550.90 -.15%
Base Metals 172.29 -.26%
Copper 233.90 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.69% -.38%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.83%
Drugs +2.01%
I-Banks +1.03%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -.01%
Broadcasting -.14%
Computer Hardware -.24%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated QCOM Buy, target $60.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed confidence that American diplomats will settle differences with China and Russia on a UN statement intended to persuade Iran to rein in its nuclear program.
- The American Civil Liberties Union(ACLU) filed suit seeking to overturn a US law that makes students ineligible for federally backed college loans once they have been convicted on a drug charge.
- Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Bush will discuss the fight against terrorism and halting the spread of nuclear weapons when they meet April 20 in Washington.
- Humans with H5N1 avian influenza evidently can’t spread the virus easily through coughing and sneezing, scientists said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Networking longs, Airline longs and Semi longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, almost every sector rose and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bullish. The major averages are up between 5%-10% for the year already and most of my positive catalysts haven't even occurred. Given the skepticism regarding this rally, I expect any pullbacks to be relatively muted on the way to substantial gains for the year. I still expect the S&P 500 to return around 15% for the year. I will be unable to post through Sunday due to a scheduling conflict. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour as Oil Reverses Lower
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Internet longs and Networking longs. I covered some of my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are gaining and volume is heavy. The ISE Sentiment Index is falling 16% today to a below-average 143.0. Moreover, the spread between the index’s 10-day moving-average and its 200-day is the largest since Sept. 2004. These depressed levels come even as the S&P 500 approaches 6-year highs and has risen 74% from Oct. 2002 lows. The relatively low levels of investor complacency shown in many gauges of sentiment have to big a big worry for the bears. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on lower energy prices, lower long-term rates and short-covering.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China’s finance ministry said it will raise its automobile and motorcycle taxes 20% to spur the use of small vehicles that burn less fuel, part of a wider move to tax luxury goods and control energy consumption.
- Elan Corp.(ELN) and partner Biogen Idec(BIIB) said US regulators extended the review of their recalled multiple sclerosis treatment Tysabri for as long as 90 days to study the companies’ plan for restarting sales of the product.
- David Shaw, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund firm, said investment returns probably will worsen because of all the money pouring into the industry.
- Illinois Tool Works(ITW) CEO Speer said the company is winning more orders from Asian automakers including Toyota Motor and Honda Motor that will help spur sales growth for its ball joints, suspension systems and door handles.
- Shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY) and partner Sanofi-Aventis SA surged after the drugmakers settled a patent lawsuit against Apotex Inc. to keep a generic version of the blood thinner Plavix off the market until 2011.
- FedEx Corp.(FDX) said fiscal third-quarter profit rose 35%, more than analysts expected, as strong demand enabled the company to raise prices.
Wall Street Journal:
- The SEC is pursuing several initiatives that will change the way companies and mutual funds report earnings, empowering financial markets to discipline laggards as an alternative to government regulation.
- Microsoft(MSFT) plans a management shake-up at its Windows group.
- EchoStar Communications(DISH) will spend more than $1.6 billion in the next few years to boost its satellite fleet.
- US academics have established a new method of comparing mutual funds, moving away from the tradition of comparison against a benchmark index.
- Tennis matches will try to eliminate inaccurate line calls using technology that provides computerized instant replays.
- US hospital guidelines are setting private rooms as the new standard, amid growing evidence that shared rooms cause more infections, medical errors, privacy violations and stress.
- The liberal watchdog group Public Citizens has filed a lawsuit that may threaten the $39 billion in US budget cuts approved last month under the Deficit Reduction Act.
NY Post:
- Inter-Tel(INTL), which focuses on telephone services to small and medium-sized businesses, may seek a sale as it faces a possible bid from its former chief executive officer to regain control.
- NY police are installing 505 video cameras around the city to watch over 253 tourist and high-crime spots.
AP:
- Millions of NY commuters who ride Metropolitan Transportation Authority subways daily will soon be able to tell how long until the next train arrives, starting with the L line.
Financial Times:
- A proposed French parliamentary bill that would force companies with exclusive copyright protection to supply rivals with information needed to make compatible systems could hurt many companies, not just Apple Computer(AAPL).
China Securities Journal:
- China’s consumption of the copper tubing used in air conditioners has fallen 30% over the past year, citing a survey by a leading maker of the part.
- China’s finance ministry said it will raise its automobile and motorcycle taxes 20% to spur the use of small vehicles that burn less fuel, part of a wider move to tax luxury goods and control energy consumption.
- Elan Corp.(ELN) and partner Biogen Idec(BIIB) said US regulators extended the review of their recalled multiple sclerosis treatment Tysabri for as long as 90 days to study the companies’ plan for restarting sales of the product.
- David Shaw, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund firm, said investment returns probably will worsen because of all the money pouring into the industry.
- Illinois Tool Works(ITW) CEO Speer said the company is winning more orders from Asian automakers including Toyota Motor and Honda Motor that will help spur sales growth for its ball joints, suspension systems and door handles.
- Shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY) and partner Sanofi-Aventis SA surged after the drugmakers settled a patent lawsuit against Apotex Inc. to keep a generic version of the blood thinner Plavix off the market until 2011.
- FedEx Corp.(FDX) said fiscal third-quarter profit rose 35%, more than analysts expected, as strong demand enabled the company to raise prices.
Wall Street Journal:
- The SEC is pursuing several initiatives that will change the way companies and mutual funds report earnings, empowering financial markets to discipline laggards as an alternative to government regulation.
- Microsoft(MSFT) plans a management shake-up at its Windows group.
- EchoStar Communications(DISH) will spend more than $1.6 billion in the next few years to boost its satellite fleet.
- US academics have established a new method of comparing mutual funds, moving away from the tradition of comparison against a benchmark index.
- Tennis matches will try to eliminate inaccurate line calls using technology that provides computerized instant replays.
- US hospital guidelines are setting private rooms as the new standard, amid growing evidence that shared rooms cause more infections, medical errors, privacy violations and stress.
- The liberal watchdog group Public Citizens has filed a lawsuit that may threaten the $39 billion in US budget cuts approved last month under the Deficit Reduction Act.
NY Post:
- Inter-Tel(INTL), which focuses on telephone services to small and medium-sized businesses, may seek a sale as it faces a possible bid from its former chief executive officer to regain control.
- NY police are installing 505 video cameras around the city to watch over 253 tourist and high-crime spots.
AP:
- Millions of NY commuters who ride Metropolitan Transportation Authority subways daily will soon be able to tell how long until the next train arrives, starting with the L line.
Financial Times:
- A proposed French parliamentary bill that would force companies with exclusive copyright protection to supply rivals with information needed to make compatible systems could hurt many companies, not just Apple Computer(AAPL).
China Securities Journal:
- China’s consumption of the copper tubing used in air conditioners has fallen 30% over the past year, citing a survey by a leading maker of the part.
Tuesday, March 21, 2006
Wednesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China National Petroleum, the nation’s biggest oil producer, plans to increase output of crude oil and natural gas 25% in the next five years.
Wall Street Journal:
- The Washington, DC, area accounts for 9.6% of all US venture capital invested in seed and start-ups, up from 3.6% a decade ago, citing the National Venture Capital Association.
LA Times:
- Iran’s government, which says it has religious and political differences with the Islamic extremist group al-Qaeda, may be aiding the group’s leaders.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.83%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ATU)/.62
- (ADBE)/.29
- (FDX)/1.30
- (FUL)/.27
- (MLHR)/.32
- (IPG)/-.40
- (JBIL)/.37
- (KBH)/1.96
- (MS)/1.21
- (WOR)/.35
Upcoming Splits
- (RJF) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- China National Petroleum, the nation’s biggest oil producer, plans to increase output of crude oil and natural gas 25% in the next five years.
Wall Street Journal:
- The Washington, DC, area accounts for 9.6% of all US venture capital invested in seed and start-ups, up from 3.6% a decade ago, citing the National Venture Capital Association.
LA Times:
- Iran’s government, which says it has religious and political differences with the Islamic extremist group al-Qaeda, may be aiding the group’s leaders.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.83%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ATU)/.62
- (ADBE)/.29
- (FDX)/1.30
- (FUL)/.27
- (MLHR)/.32
- (IPG)/-.40
- (JBIL)/.37
- (KBH)/1.96
- (MS)/1.21
- (WOR)/.35
Upcoming Splits
- (RJF) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology shares in the region after Microsoft delayed the release of its next generation operating system. I expect US equities to open lower and to trade mixed into the afternoon, finishing lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)