Stocks Lower into Final Hour as Bonds Weaken

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Biotech longs, Computer longs, Semi longs and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is below average.
The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 2.4% year over year last week vs. a 2.5% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April 2005. The long-term average is a gain of around 2.5%. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index is 22.2% higher since late October, almost double the 11.6% gain for the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same time period. The Fed’s move and statements were about what most expected. The bond market appears to have overreacted. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.