Sunday, March 12, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US dollar posted its broadest weekly rally since August as a jump in US job growth added to expectations that interest rates in the US will rise more than in other major economies such as Japan.
- US coffee consumption is at its highest in six years and “statistically equal” to soda drinks for the first time since 1990, the National Coffee Assoc. said.
- Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said that while his nation’s economy is “right on track,” the central bank hasn’t decided on the timing of interest rate increases.
- The leaders of Iraq’s religious factions today agreed to meet daily ahead of the nation’s first parliamentary session March 16 in an effort to choose a prime minister and create a national unity government.
- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is losing his midas touch as retirement looms.
- China’s consumer prices rose in February by .9%, the slowest pace in five months, as gains in food prices eased.
- Kia Motors, South Korea’s second-largest automaker, will build a $1.2 billion factory in West Point, Georgia, choosing a site near its parent Hyundai Motor’s US plant to tap growing sales in North America.

Wall Street Journal:
- US homeowners are slowing the rate at which they take out credit against their houses as interest rates rise and the housing market cools, citing data from the Federal Reserve.
- Capital One(COF) is near an agreement to buy North Fork Bancorp.(NFB) for about $14.5 billion in cash and stock.

CNNMoney.com:
- While big drugmakers stumble, their nimbler rivals are delivering products – and profits.

NY Times:
- McClatchy Co. is the bidder most likely to buy Knight Ridder because its $4.8 billion cash and stock bid for the No. 2 US newspaper chain is the highest and the most binding.
- The National People’s Congress of China is debating whether to continue with its efforts to promote more investment and economic growth or to rein in expansion to avoid disenfranchising the poor.
- Producers of specialized television shows whose audiences are too small to justify late-night or cable slots are increasingly broadcasting over the Internet.

Rocky Mountain News:
- Broe Cos. is “very interested” in managing the six US ports that Dubai’s DP World will give up running. Broe’s OmniTRAX subsidiary owns the port at Churchhill, Manitoba.

Sky News:
- Slobodan Milosevic, the former president of Yugoslavia who was facing war crimes charges in The Hague, died in his jail cell.

Financial Times:
- US Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said an overreaction by Congress on security issues, such as the furor over DP World’s planned takeover of some US port facilities, threatens to damage the US economy.
- Dell Inc.(DELL) needs “to be bolder” in its attempts to reverse slowing revenue growth and sliding profit margins, citing an interview with CEO Rollins.
- Pfizer(PFE), Citigroup(C), Motorola(MOT), Ford Motor(F) and General Motors(GM) are among US companies preparing to end quarterly profit forecasts in favor of more detail on underlying performance.

Financial Mail on Sunday:
- Private equity firms including Apax Partners Worldwide and CVC Capital Partners Ltd. are planning a $173 billion bid for Vodafone Group Plc(VOD).

Business:
- Verizon Communications(VZ) may buy Vodafone Group’s(VOD) stake in its mobile-phone unit for about $40 billion.
- The NYSE(NYX) may bid for the London Stock Exchange after Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. made an unsolicited approach for Europe’s largest stock market.
- GlaxoSmithKline Plc(GLX), the biggest drugmaker in the UK, decided not to proceed with a possible $11 billion bid for Serono SA(SRA), Europe’s largest biotech company.

AFP:
- Saudi Arabia said it will support Hamas as the party seeks to form a Palestinian government, citing Ezzat al-Reshq, a member of the Hamas delegation currently visiting Riyadh.

Gulf News:
- China expects to start free trade talks with the United Arab Emirates this year in an effort to boost exports to the Persian Gulf’s second largest economy, citing a Chinese official.

Middle East Economic Digest:
- United Arab Emirates’ State-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. plans to invite companies to bid for a contract to design facilities to raise production capacity by 25% from its Bab oil field.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (ITG), (BA), (ABXA), (TWX), (CBS), (CVC), (DIS), (MER), (JPM), (PFE), (DJ), (ALL) and (AVP).

Goldman Sachs:
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.24%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ALO)/.27
- (ADRX)/.20
- (CMG)/.11
- (STAR)/.08
- (SONS)/.00
- (MTN)/.94

Upcoming Splits
- (ATLS) 3-for-2
- (MINI) 2-for-1
- (PD) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by exporting shares in the region after the US dollar rose and US employment data exceeded estimates. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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