- Personal Spending for February rose .1% versus estimates of unchanged and a .8% rise in January.
- PCE Core for February rose .1% versus estimates of a .1% gain and a .2% rise in January.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March rose to 88.9 versus estimates of 86.9 and a prior reading of 86.7.
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for March rose to 60.4 versus estimates of 57.0 and a reading of 54.9 in February.
- Factory Orders for February rose .2% versus estimates of a 1.3% gain and a 3.9% decline in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Consumer spending rose .1% in February, the smallest gain since August, as Americans took a breather after splurging a month earlier, Bloomberg said. The PCE core, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 1.8% y-o-y, the same as the prior month. Incomes rose 5.6% y-o-y, almost twice most inflation measures. I expect incomes to remain healthy, spending to moderate and inflation to decelerate mostly through year-end.
Confidence among US consumers increased more than expected in March as higher wages and job creation left people with more money in their pockets, Bloomberg reported. The expectations index rose to 76 from 74.5 last month. Confidence remains irrationally low given the current economic backdrop. I expect this measure to rise to cycle highs before year’s end.
Manufacturing in the Chicago area accelerated in March, Bloomberg reported. Inventories at record lows and increased business spending are spurring companies to boost production. The employment component of the index rose to 55.6 from 54.9 in February. The prices paid component fell to 71.1 from 71.6 the prior month. I expect manufacturing to slow to average levels, but still add to economic growth over the coming months.
US factory orders rose less than expected in February, held back by falling demand for machinery and less expensive oil, Bloomberg said. Orders, excluding transportation, fell 2.0%.
No comments:
Post a Comment