Thursday, March 16, 2006

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Lower Long-term Rates Offset Higher Energy Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Semi longs and Energy-related shorts. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) shorts and added to my existing (EEM) short, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is heavy. The AAII percentage Bulls rose to 46.55% this week from 41.21% the prior week. This reading is still around average levels. The AAII percentage of Bears rose to 32.76% this week from 30.77% the prior week. This reading is now at above average levels. Considering the major averages are near five-year highs, these numbers remain bullish for US stocks. I expect bullish sentiment to rise modestly next week. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as lower long-term rates offset higher energy prices.

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