Thursday, July 06, 2006

Stocks Mixed Heading into Final Hour ahead of Employment Report

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Internet longs and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is about average. The AAII percentage of Bulls fell to 37.70% this week from 38.60% the prior week. This reading is still below average levels. The AAII percentage of Bears rose to 42.62% this week from 39.77% the prior week. This reading is still above average levels. I expect bullish sentiment to rise next week. I continue to believe overall investor sentiment toward U.S. stocks remains at levels associated with meaningful market bottoms. The fact that bearishness rose again despite recent market gains provides more evidence that many are skeptical that a bottom is in place. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising apprehension ahead of tomorrow’s employment report.

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