Friday, July 07, 2006

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Worries Over Slowing Economic Growth

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Retail longs, Networking longs and Semi longs. I added to my (EEM), (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is lower and volume is about average. The 10-year yield is down 5 basis points, near session lows, to 5.13%. The yield is now back below where it was prior to ADP's overly optimistic forecast for today's employment report. I still believe data over the coming weeks will prompt the Fed to pause. I don't believe they will hike at the August meeting, notwithstanding the market's current expectations. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and lower long-term rates.

No comments: