Thursday, August 24, 2006

Durable Goods Orders Mixed, Job Market Still Healthy, New Home Sales Slow

- Durable Goods Orders for July fell 2.4% versus estimates of a .5% decline and an upwardly revised 3.5% increase in June.
- Durables Ex Transports for July rose .5% versus estimates of a .3% increase and an upwardly revised 2.2% gain in June.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 313K versus estimates of 315K and 314K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2492K versus estimates of 2490K and 2501K prior.
- New Home Sales for July fell to 1072K versus estimates of 1100K and 1120K in June.

BOTTOM LINE: US companies ordered more computers and machinery last month, suggesting corporate investment will help sustain economic growth, Bloomberg reported. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a gauge of future business spending, rose 1.5% last month, the most since March. Computer and electronics orders rose 4.6% in July. Backlogs of orders for business equipment rose 1.6% last month, which implies factories aren’t able to meet demand. I expect durable goods orders to remain relatively healthy as companies continue to use cash hoards to replace equipment to improve efficiency.

The number of US workers filing first-time applications for state jobless benefits fell for a second week, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving-average rose to 315,250 from 311,750 the prior week. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at 1.9%. I continue to believe the labor market will remain relatively healthy over the intermediate-term.

New Home Sales in the US fell last month and inventories rose, Bloomberg reported. The median home price rose .3% to $230,000. New home inventories rose to 6.2 months’ supply at the current sales pace. New Home Sales fell 21% in the Mid-west and 8% in the South. Sales rose 12% in the West and 1.8% in the Northeast. I continue to believe housing is in the process of slowing to more healthy rates and that prices will stabilize at relatively high levels.

No comments: