BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Computer longs, Medical longs and Retail longs. I covered my (IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is about average. NYSE short interest as a percentage of total shares outstanding hit 2.5% last month. This is an all-time record high. This is also up from a low of 1.0% in Sept. 1999. The negativity bubble further inflates. I suspect today’s move is the confirmation the few remaining bulls have been waiting for. My intermediate-term broad market technical models are improving rapidly. The 10-year yield is near session lows of 4.92% despite today's sharp stock market advance. Even a bad CPI report tomorrow will not likely boost the yield meaningfully above 5%. The ISE Sentiment Index is still a depressed 93, which is a positive. Homebuilders are up 2.4% to session highs despite today's bad housing data. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, lower long-term rates and declining energy prices.
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
Stocks Sharply Higher into Final Hour on Falling Inflation Worries, Short-covering and Bargain-hunting
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