Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Stocks Finish Higher on Diminishing Inflation Concerns and Lower Long-term Rates

Indices
S&P 1,304.27 unch.
DJIA 11,382.91 +.11%
NASDAQ 2,185.73 +.62%
Russell 2000 720.58 +.80%
Wilshire 5000 13,044.81 +.09%
S&P Barra Growth 606.37 +.12%
S&P Barra Value 695.74 -.12%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 640.81 +.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 797.09 +.07%
Morgan Stanley Technology 510.51 +1.01%
Transports 4,270.68 -.42%
Utilities 437.17 -1.13%
Put/Call 1.03 +6.19%
NYSE Arms 1.22 +30.91%
Volatility(VIX) 12.22 -.49%
ISE Sentiment 95.00 -34.48%
US Dollar 84.97 +.01%
CRB 327.09 -.20%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 70.31 +.86%
Unleaded Gasoline 181.50 +1.44%
Natural Gas 6.25 -9.03%
Heating Oil 196.00 +.86%
Gold 626.80 +.11%
Base Metals 227.00 -.52%
Copper 334.00 -.37%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.75% -.46%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.14%
Semis +1.80%
Networking +1.36%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.62%
Oil Service -2.12%
Oil Tankers -2.17%

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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Merck(MRK) won the first reversal of a damage award over its Vioxx painkiller when a judge said a $51 million verdict was “grossly excessive.”
- Verizon Communications(VZ) is dropping plans for a high-speed Internet service surcharge after customers complained and US regulators questioned the fee.
- BHP Billiton(BHP) reached a preliminary agreement in Chile with union leaders at its Escondida copper mine, signaling a possible end to a 24-day strike that disrupted production.
- The ozone layer, the atmospheric shield that protects life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet rays, is on the mend after decades of decline tied to pollution, according to a study to be published in the Sept. 9 Journal of Geophysical Research. At current recovery rates, ozone in the stratosphere could return to 1980 levels by mid-century.
- US Treasuries advanced after the government’s sale of $14 billion of five-year notes met the highest demand in nine years. Yields fell to a five-month low.
- Natural gas plunged 8.5% as lower temperatures cut US power-plant demand for the fuel.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Networking longs, Semi longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was below-average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bullish. The 10-year yield finished near session lows at 4.75%. Despite the reversal higher in oil, oil stocks finished about 2.0% lower, which is an interesting development. I suspect oil has one last period of strength during Sept. before an accelerated downward move begins. Tech outperformed again today, with select semis trading especially well. The Morgan Stanley Tech Index has surged 13.4% over the last six weeks. I expect tech stocks to continue to outperform over the intermediate-term. Tomorrow's same-store-sales reports should meet lowered expectations, however forward guidance will likely remain conservative.

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