Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on Another Fall in Long-term Rates and Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,295.43 +.77%
DJIA 11,327.12 +.86%
NASDAQ 2,149.54 +1.63%
Russell 2000 707.39 +1.37%
Wilshire 5000 12,949.56 +.89%
S&P Barra Growth 598.86 +.81%
S&P Barra Value 694.88 +.72%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 630.48 +.47%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 805.29 +2.12%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.13 +2.58%
Transports 4,421.05 +3.23%
Utilities 433.96 -.97%
Put/Call .75 -10.71%
NYSE Arms .83 +21.13%
Volatility(VIX) 12.41 -7.53%
ISE Sentiment 145.0 +29.46%
US Dollar 84.88 -.40%
CRB 337.54 -.36%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 71.65 -.33%
Unleaded Gasoline 197.00 -.41%
Natural Gas 6.76 unch.
Heating Oil 201.45 -.12%
Gold 638.70 -.05%
Base Metals 231.95 +2.25%
Copper 344.65 +.57%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.85% -1.12%

Leading Sectors
Semis +4.33%
Airlines +3.58%
Homebuilders +3.40%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -.11%
Energy -.60%
Utilities -.97%

Evening Review
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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Raymond James:
- Added (LCAV) to Aggressive Growth Focus List.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The CFA Institute, administrator of the CFA program, said 52% of the 63,249 people who took the three levels of exams in June passed.
- US securities regulators investigating units of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway are examining transactions involving St. Paul Cos. and former subsidiaries of Prudential Financial, a filing shows.
- Crude oil fell to the lowest price in almost 2 months on signs that US economic growth is slowing and nationwide inventories are sufficient to meet demand.
- Limited Brands(LTD) said second-quarter profit surged 39%, spurred by sales at Victoria’s Secret.
- Intuit(INTU) said an internal probe of stock options grants revealed no evidence of fraud or intentional wrongdoing.
- Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) said third-quarter profit rose more than analysts estimated and announced a plan to buy back $6 billion of shares.
- US Treasuries rose, pushing the benchmark 10-year note’s yield to the lowest since April, as slowing inflation and housing bolstered expectations the Fed is done raising rates.

AP:
- Verizon Communications(VZ) is in talks to sell local telephone lines in Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire to net as much as $2 billion.

Press of Atlantic City:
- Billionaire investor Carl Icahn is in talks to sell the Sands Casino Hotel in Atlantic City, New Jersey, for about $250 million.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Biotech longs, Retail longs and Internet longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive again today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was very bullish as the major averages and breadth finished near session highs. The 10-year maintained strong gains throughout the day as inflation worries are declining rapidly. Oil finished near session lows, down $1.16/bbl. despite bullish inventory data and another dollar decline. I continue to believe a major top in oil is forming and an accelerated downward move will occur beginning sometime over the next six weeks. I sense we are at the point where investment performance anxiety will begin setting in for many as the herd is very bearish. I still believe a significant bottom was put in during July and that stocks will rise sharply from those levels by year-end.

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