Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Stocks Finish at Session Highs as Oil Closes Below $70/bbl. and Long-term Rates Fall Again

Indices
S&P 1,304.28 +.19%
DJIA 11,369.94 +.16%
NASDAQ 2,172.30 +.54%
Russell 2000 714.85 +1.16%
Wilshire 5000 13,032.94 +.30%
S&P Barra Growth 605.65 +.31%
S&P Barra Value 696.57 +.08%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 640.56 +.60%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 796.56 +.43%
Morgan Stanley Technology 505.40 +1.03%
Transports 4,288.73 -.11%
Utilities 442.16 +.03%
Put/Call .97 -1.02%
NYSE Arms .96 -1.10%
Volatility(VIX) 12.28 +.82%
ISE Sentiment 134.00 +20.72%
US Dollar 84.95 -.36%
CRB 327.73 -.59%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 69.78 -1.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 178.54 +.13%
Natural Gas 6.81 +5.32%
Heating Oil 194.65 -.99%
Gold 622.80 -.18%
Base Metals 228.19 -1.04%
Copper 338.50 -1.90%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.77% -.29%

Leading Sectors
Networking +1.84%
Semis +1.67%
Disk Drives +1.62%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -.51%
I-Banks -1.22%
Oil Tankers -1.51%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil closed below $70/bbl. for the first time in two months as energy speculators trimmed bets as the summer driving season winds down with only mild production disruptions.
- Apple(AAPL) today announced that Dr. Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google(GOOG), was elected to Apple’s board of directors at their meeting today.
- Inco Ltd.(N) urged investors to accept a $17.4 billion takeover by Phelps Dodge(PD) to merge their nickel and copper mines, rejecting a higher hostile bid from Brazil’s Cia. Vale do Rio Doce.
- Microsoft(MSFT) is selling its new Windows Vista operating system for $100 to $399 and will make the program available on Jan. 30, according to Amazon.com’s Web site.
- Federal Reserve officials saw their decision to suspend a two-year run of interest rate increases as a “close call” and were unsure whether they would further raise borrowing costs, the minutes showed.
- US 10-year notes gained, pushing yields to the lowest since March, as traders said the minutes of the Fed’s Aug. 8 meeting showed more support than expected for the decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

AP:
- Lawyers for customers of AT&T(T), Verizon Communications(VZ) and BellSouth(BLS) who are suing the companies for violating privacy laws by turning over phone records for terrorism surveillance plan to subpoena the Bush administration.

LA Times:
- Rapid commercial growth and new jobs in Orange County, south of Los Angeles, have attracted workers to the area, which is leading to a reversal in the region’s usual commuting routes.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Retail longs, Semi longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, almost every sector rose and volume was light. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bullish. The statements from the Fed Minutes were mixed. There was something for the doves and hawks. I still believe there is almost zero chance of a rate hike at the Sept. meeting and very little chance of another hike this year. The Fed almost never hikes the Fed Funds rate above the 10-year T-note yield. Currently, there is a 45-basis-point spread between the two. With most market participants bearish and continuing to look for more significant market weakness, these types of reversal days are usually followed by more strength.

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