Monday, September 11, 2006

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Falling Commodity Shares Offset Gains Elsewhere

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Computer longs, Semi longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, most sectors are higher and volume is about average. OPEC is saying there is a "clear imbalance" between supply and demand and that they will consider an output cut at the December 14 meeting. As well, OPEC's Daukoru said 872,000 bpd are shut-in in Nigeria and that output should come back in 3-6 months. I suspect an OPEC output cut and a substantial increase in oil tanker supply over the intermediate-term will send oil tanker shares substantially lower from current levels. My favorite short in the group remains OMI Corp. (OMM). I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain hunting, short covering and declining energy prices.

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