Thursday, September 28, 2006

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Short-covering and Reversal Lower in Oil

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Medical longs, Retail longs and Semi longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. There are reports that OPEC is cutting production 5% with oil at $64 per barrel. If this report is true, it is incredibly short-sighted. Global demand for oil has been flat since December 2003 during a time of booming economic growth. Demand destruction is already pervasive. Most Americans feel as though they are funding terrorism by filling up their tanks. I do not believe we will ever again see the demand for gas-guzzling vehicles that we saw in recent years, even if gas prices continue to plunge. An OPEC cut with oil at $64 per barrel amid weakening global growth would only further deepen resentment and result in even greater long-term demand destruction. Oil is now .21 cents lower on the day despite the report. I will look to add to my energy-related shorts on any substantial increase in oil prices from current levels. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and .

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