Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Stocks Soar on Plunging Gas Prices, Lower Interest Rates and Less Irrational Pessimism

Indices
S&P 1,313.11 +1.04%
DJIA 11,498.09 +.89%
NASDAQ 2,215.82 +1.96%
Russell 2000 724.48 +2.39%
Wilshire 5000 13,125.83 +1.18%
S&P Barra Growth 611.25 +1.13%
S&P Barra Value 699.58 +.96%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 651.52 +.63%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 814.15 +1.95%
Morgan Stanley Technology 519.32 +2.41%
Transports 4,369.85 +3.33%
Utilities 428.06 -.85%
Put/Call .94 -6.93%
NYSE Arms .89 -14.72%
Volatility(VIX) 11.92 -8.24%
ISE Sentiment 117.0 +23.16%
US Dollar 85.91 -.01%
CRB 310.71 -.96%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.77 -2.82%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.50 -1.94%
Natural Gas 5.56 -1.85%
Heating Oil 176.65 -2.15%
Gold 594.60 +.05%
Base Metals 227.99 -.52%
Copper 335.50 -.53%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.76% -.70%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.88%
Homebuilders +3.84%
Networking +3.77%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -.71%
Gold & Silver -.83%
Oil Service -.99%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks had their biggest advance in a month, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average within 225 points of its all-time high, as revenue at Goldman Sachs(GS) set a Wall Street record and retailers rallied on a plunge in oil prices.
- Crude oil fell below $64/bbl., clearly breaking its long-term uptrend at $66.33, after the IEA cut its global consumption estimates.
- The company that produces “Girls Gone Wild” videos pleaded guilty to violating a law, aimed at protecting minors, that requires makers of sexually explicit films to document the ages of their performers.
- The US will raise the monthly bill for most people who get basic health care through Medicare by 5.6% next year, and by as much as 83% for rich Americans.
- New York chose Northrop Grumman(NOC) to build a $500 million wireless network which will enable public-safety workers and first-responders to get information more quickly.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) said it will start selling 75 full-length Walt Disney(DIS) films including the first “Pirates of the Caribbean” over the Internet today, and introduced iPod players with a brighter screen and more storage.
- Treasury 10-year notes posted their biggest gains in about two weeks after the government sold $8 billion of the benchmark securities at a yield lower than forecast by bond-trading firms.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs, Internet longs, Medical longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was very bullish. The 10-year yield is finished near session lows, down 3 basis points, despite today's sharp stock gains. With a number of sectors posting 3%+ gains today and the over-owned commodity stocks falling again, I suspect portfolio manager performance anxiety is rising at a rapid rate. Moreover, many of the best growth stocks, which are the cheapest relative to value in at least 30 years, rose 5%-7% today. Oil has now broken clearly below its long-term uptrend line at $66.33 during its seasonally strongest period. My intraday gauges of investor angst were slightly above-average levels throughout the day, which also bodes well for further gains in the near-term.

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