Monday, May 07, 2007

Stocks Finish Mixed as DJIA Closes at Another Record on Energy Price Decline and Buyout Speculation

Indices
S&P 500 1,509.48 +.26%
DJIA 13,312.97 +.36%
NASDAQ 2,570.95 -.05%
Russell 2000 831.87 -.12%
Wilshire 5000 15,190.52 +.20%
Russell 1000 Growth 595.27 +.13%
Russell 1000 Value 868.20 +.33%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 742.53 +.06%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,045.91 +.51%
Morgan Stanley Technology 605.91 -.37%
Transports 5,165.01 -.12%
Utilities 530.81 +.87%
MSCI Emerging Markets 125.27 +.38%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .69 -14.81%
NYSE Arms .83 -14.32%
Volatility(VIX) 13.15 +1.86%
ISE Sentiment 163.0 +15.60%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.60 -.53%
Reformulated Gasoline 219.52 -.96%
Natural Gas 7.78 -1.95%
Heating Oil 180.67 -1.32%
Gold 691.30 +.23%
Base Metals 281.66 unch.
Copper 371.60 -1.13%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.63% -1 basis point
US Dollar 81.65 -.10%
CRB Index 308.92 -.75%

Leading Sectors
Steel +1.72%
Defense +1.66%
Utilities +.87%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.50%
I-Banks -.74%
Homebuilders -.76%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
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Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Rated (UTHR) Buy, target $81.

Morgan Stanley:
- Upgraded (UA) to Equal Weight.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Oil fell to a six-week low and gasoline declined on speculation that US refiners will increase output of the motor fuel before the peak-demand driving season. Low refinery utilization as a result of a nationwide rash of “outages” has been the driving force behind higher gas prices of late. US oil inventories are still approaching 8-year highs.
- World crude-oil markets are “over-supplied,” the Qatari energy minister said.
- Starbucks Corp.(SBUX) will eliminate artificial trans fats in food and beverages sold at all its stores in the continental US, Alaska and Canada.
- Alcoa’s(AA) proposed $26.9 billion takeover of Alcan(AL) would get close antitrust scrutiny to determine whether creating the world’s largest aluminum maker would raise prices, experts said.
- Consumer borrowing increased in March by the most in four months as Americans charged more purchases to their credit cards and took out more car loans, Federal Reserve figures showed.
- WellCare Health(WCG) surged 7.8% in after-hours trading after it boosted its forecast.
- Blue Nile(NILE) rose 6.7% in extended trading after 1Q profit exceeded estimates.
- Guitar Center(GTRC) soared 10% in after-hours trading after 1Q easily exceeded estimates.
- French President-elect Nicolas Sarkozy will name Francois Fillon, a former education minister and his chief campaign adviser, as prime minister. Fillon’s appointment is part of Sarkozy’s attempt to win support for his labor reforms, which are facing strong opposition from France’s two biggest trade unions, the CFTD and CGT.
- Citadel Investment Group LLC, a Chicago hedge fund manager, boosted its stake in networking-equipment maker 3Com Corp.(COMS) to 8.4% from less than 1%. Citadel said it may seek alternatives to increase shareholder value in 3Com, according to a filing today with the SEC. 20.2 million shares of the company are currently sold short. The stock is surging 4% after-hours on the report.
- New Century Financial(NEWC) won court approval to sell $170 million worth of loans to hedge fund Ellington Management Group LLC for about .34 on the dollar.
- Western Refining(WRN) said its El Paso, Texas, refinery will increase processing of high-sulfur, or sour, crude oil to as much as 50% of capacity next year from 10% after modifications are completed.
- Duke Energy(DUK) said if it receives board approval it plans to buy Southern Co.’s(SO) 500-megawatt interest in a proposed nuclear power project in South Carolina.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Biotech longs, Medical longs, Computer longs and Semi longs. I didn’t trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was neutral today as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, most sectors gained and volume was below-average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was slightly bullish. These are the types of days the bulls should cheer after recent sharp gains as stocks work off their overbought state without any technical damage. Moreover, most sectors rose and many stocks posted 1%+ gains today, providing excellent opportunities for true stockpickers. Very few stocks declined on volume. The 10-year yield fell another basis point ahead of likely weak retail sales data and slightly more dovish FOMC commentary. Most commodities were weak today, despite another U.S. dollar decline. Bloomberg is reporting global crude oil markets are "oversupplied," according to the Qatari energy minister. I continue to believe that the rash of nationwide U.S. refinery "outages" will only result in further long-term global oil demand destruction. Commercial hedgers, historically the "smart money," remain significantly net short oil despite the commodity's recent decline.

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