Monday, August 11, 2014

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Islamic State Funds Caliphate With Mosul Dam as Terror Spreads. Islamic State militants who last week captured the Mosul Dam, Iraq’s largest, had one demand for workers: Keep it going. Arriving in their Toyota pickup trucks, armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles and wearing a patchwork of military uniforms, robes and turbans, jubilant militants from the al-Qaeda breakaway group told workers hiding in management offices they would get their salaries as long as the dam continued to produce electricity for the region under their control, according to a technician who was at the dam when nearly 500 militants drove off Kurdish troops. Islamic State’s rampage through northern Iraq has inspired terror as stories spread of beheadings and crucifixions. At the same time, its fighters are capturing the strategic assets needed to fund the Islamic caliphate it announced in June and strengthen its grip on the territory already captured. 
  • Ukraine Says It Is Near End of Operation to Surround Rebels. The Red Cross said it’s working on getting aid to rebel-held areas of east Ukraine, where government forces have encircled major cities, as the U.S. warned Russia not to use the mission to send in troops. The situation in the city of Luhansk and other areas “is critical -- thousands of people are reported to be without access to water, electricity and medical aid,” Laurent Corbaz, the head of the International Committee of the Red Cross’s operations for Europe, said in an e-mailed statement late yesterday. Still, “the practical details of this operation need to be clarified before this initiative can move forward.”
  • China’s Trust Asset Growth Slows Amid Shadow Banking Crackdown. China’s trust assets expanded at the slowest pace in two years as the government cracks down on shadow banking and investors reassess the risks of the high-yield investments. Trust companies had 12.5 trillion yuan ($2 trillion) of assets under management as of June 30, up 6.4 percent from three months earlier, the China Trustee Association said in a statement yesterday. That’s the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2012
  • Asian Stocks Extend Gains With Dollar as Wheat Declines. Asian stocks rose, with the regional index extending gains after its biggest one-day jump since June, while the dollar climbed against the euro, Swiss franc and yen. Credit risk in the region declined with wheat. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent by 10:45 a.m. in Tokyo.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Iraqi Political Leaders Clash Over Prime Minister Post. Figure From Prime Minister's Party Nominated to Succeed Him; Islamist Militants Clock New Gains. Iraq's president appointed a candidate to replace Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki but the longtime leader refused to step aside, setting up a confrontation as the government struggles to combat a rapidly advancing Sunni insurgency. President Fuad Masum designated Haider al-Abadi, a member of Mr. Maliki's Shiite Islamist Dawa party, to form the next government. Mr. Maliki, who was vying for a third four-year term, angrily rejected the nomination in two televised appearances on Monday and vowed to challenge a decision he called a subversion of the constitution and a betrayal of the public will.
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
  • Nuance(NUAN) 4th-qtr forecast misses expectations. Speech recognition software maker Nuance Communications Inc forecast current-quarter adjusted revenue and profit below expectations as the company continues to struggle from its transition to a subscription-based business model. 
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.50 -2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.0 -1.75 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CREE)/.41
  • (FOSL)/.96
  • (JDSU)/.13
Economic Releases 
7:30 am EST
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism for July is estimated to rise to 96.0 versus 95.0 in June.
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for June are estimated to fall to 4600 versus 4635 in May.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for June is estimated at -$96.0B.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German ZEW Index, BoJ Minutes, Japan GDP report, USDA's WASDE report, 3Y $27B T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (CRL) investor meeting, JPMorgan Auto Conference, Wedbush Life Sciences Conference and the Oppenheimer Tech/Internet/Communications Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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